The Singularity Is Near_ When Humans Transcend Biology Part 34

91. 91. Helen Pearson, "Construction Bugs Find Tiny Work," Helen Pearson, "Construction Bugs Find Tiny Work," Nature News Nature News, July 11, 2003, http://www.nature.com/news/2003/030707/full/030707-9.html.

92. 92. Richard E. Smalley, "Nanofallacies: Of Chemistry, Love and Nan.o.bots," Richard E. Smalley, "Nanofallacies: Of Chemistry, Love and Nan.o.bots," Scientific American Scientific American 285.3 (September 2001): 7677; subscription required for this link: http://www.sciamdigital.com/browse.cfm?sequencenameCHAR=item2&methodnameCHAR=resource_get.i.tembrowse&interfacenameCHAR=browse.cfm&ISSUEID_CHAR=6A628AB3-17A5-4374-B100-3185A0CCC86&ARTICLEID_CHAR=F90C4210-C153-4B2F-83A1-28F2012B637&sc=I100322. 285.3 (September 2001): 7677; subscription required for this link: http://www.sciamdigital.com/browse.cfm?sequencenameCHAR=item2&methodnameCHAR=resource_get.i.tembrowse&interfacenameCHAR=browse.cfm&ISSUEID_CHAR=6A628AB3-17A5-4374-B100-3185A0CCC86&ARTICLEID_CHAR=F90C4210-C153-4B2F-83A1-28F2012B637&sc=I100322.

93. 93. See the bibliography of references in notes 108 and 109 below. See also Drexler, See the bibliography of references in notes 108 and 109 below. See also Drexler, Nanosystems Nanosystems, for his proposal. For sample confirmations, see Xiao Yan Chang, Martin Perry, James Peploski, Donald L. Thompson, and Lionel M. Raff, "Theoretical Studies of Hydrogen-Abstraction Reactions from Diamond and Diamondlike Surfaces," Journal of Chemical Physics Journal of Chemical Physics 99 (September 15, 1993): 474858. See also L. J. Lauhon and W. Ho, "Inducing and Observing the Abstraction of a Single Hydrogen Atom in Bimolecular Reaction with a Scanning Tunneling Microscope," 99 (September 15, 1993): 474858. See also L. J. Lauhon and W. Ho, "Inducing and Observing the Abstraction of a Single Hydrogen Atom in Bimolecular Reaction with a Scanning Tunneling Microscope," Journal of Physical Chemistry Journal of Physical Chemistry 105 (2000): 398792; G. Allis and K. Eric Drexler, "Design and a.n.a.lysis of a Molecular Tool for Carbon Transfer in Mechanosynthesis," 105 (2000): 398792; G. Allis and K. Eric Drexler, "Design and a.n.a.lysis of a Molecular Tool for Carbon Transfer in Mechanosynthesis," Journal of Computational and Theoretical Nanoscience Journal of Computational and Theoretical Nanoscience 2.1 (MarchApril 2005, in press). 2.1 (MarchApril 2005, in press).

94. 94. Lea Winerman, "How to Grab an Atom," Lea Winerman, "How to Grab an Atom," Physical Review Focus Physical Review Focus, May 2, 2003, http://focus.aps.org/story/v11/st19, reporting on Noriaki Oyabu, "Mechanical Vertical Manipulation of Selected Single Atoms by Soft Nanoindentation Using a Near Contact Atomic Force Microscope," Physical Review Letters Physical Review Letters 90.17 (May 2, 2003): 176102. 90.17 (May 2, 2003): 176102.

95. 95. Robert A. Freitas Jr., "Technical Bibliography for Research on Positional Mechanosynthesis," Foresight Inst.i.tute Web site, December 16, 2003, http://foresight.org/stage2/mechsynthbib.html. Robert A. Freitas Jr., "Technical Bibliography for Research on Positional Mechanosynthesis," Foresight Inst.i.tute Web site, December 16, 2003, http://foresight.org/stage2/mechsynthbib.html.

96. 96. See equation and explanation on p. 3 of Ralph C. Merkle, "That's Impossible! How Good Scientists Reach Bad Conclusions," http://www.zyvex.com/nanotech/impossible.html. See equation and explanation on p. 3 of Ralph C. Merkle, "That's Impossible! How Good Scientists Reach Bad Conclusions," http://www.zyvex.com/nanotech/impossible.html.

97. 97. "Thus X "Thus Xc is just ~5% of the typical atomic electron cloud diameter of ~0.3 nm, imposing only a modest additional constraint on the fabrication and stability of nanomechanical structures. (Even in most liquids at their boiling points, each molecule is free to move only ~0.07 nm from its average position.)" Robert A. Freitas Jr., is just ~5% of the typical atomic electron cloud diameter of ~0.3 nm, imposing only a modest additional constraint on the fabrication and stability of nanomechanical structures. (Even in most liquids at their boiling points, each molecule is free to move only ~0.07 nm from its average position.)" Robert A. Freitas Jr., Nanomedicine Nanomedicine, vol. 1, Basic Capabilities Basic Capabilities, section 2.1, "Is Molecular Manufacturing Possible?" (Georgetown, Tex.: Landes Bioscience, 1999), p. 39, http://www.nanomedicine.com/NMI/2.1.htm#p9.

98. 98. Robert A. Freitas Jr., Robert A. Freitas Jr., Nanomedicine Nanomedicine, vol. 1, Basic Capabilities Basic Capabilities, section 6.3.4.5, "Chemoelectric Cells" (Georgetown, Tex.: Landes Bioscience, 1999), pp. 15254, http://www.nanomedicine.com/NMI/6.3.4.5.htm.

99. 99. Montemagno and Bachand, "Constructing Nanomechanical Devices Powered by Biomolecular Motors." Montemagno and Bachand, "Constructing Nanomechanical Devices Powered by Biomolecular Motors."

100. 100. Open letter from Foresight chairman K. Eric Drexler to n.o.bel laureate Richard Smalley, http://www.foresight.org/NanoRev/Letter.html, and reprinted here: http://www.KurzweilAI.net/meme/frame.html?main=/articles/art0560.html. The full story can be found at Ray Kurzweil, "The Drexler-Smalley Debate on Molecular a.s.sembly," http://www.KurzweilAI.net/meme/frame.htrnl?main=/articles/art0604.html. Open letter from Foresight chairman K. Eric Drexler to n.o.bel laureate Richard Smalley, http://www.foresight.org/NanoRev/Letter.html, and reprinted here: http://www.KurzweilAI.net/meme/frame.html?main=/articles/art0560.html. The full story can be found at Ray Kurzweil, "The Drexler-Smalley Debate on Molecular a.s.sembly," http://www.KurzweilAI.net/meme/frame.htrnl?main=/articles/art0604.html.

101. 101. K. Eric Drexler and Richard E. Smalley, "Nanotechnology: Drexler and Smalley Make the Case for and Against 'Molecular a.s.semblers,' " K. Eric Drexler and Richard E. Smalley, "Nanotechnology: Drexler and Smalley Make the Case for and Against 'Molecular a.s.semblers,' " Chemical & Engineering News Chemical & Engineering News 81.48 (Dec. 1,2003): 3742, http://pubs.acs.org/cen/coverstory/8148/8148counterpoint.html. 81.48 (Dec. 1,2003): 3742, http://pubs.acs.org/cen/coverstory/8148/8148counterpoint.html.

102. 102. A. Zaks and A. M. Klibanov, "Enzymatic Catalysis in Organic Media at 100 Degrees C," A. Zaks and A. M. Klibanov, "Enzymatic Catalysis in Organic Media at 100 Degrees C," Science Science 224.4654 (June 15, 1984): 124951. 224.4654 (June 15, 1984): 124951.

103. 103. Patrick Bailey, "Unraveling the Big Debate About Small Machines," Patrick Bailey, "Unraveling the Big Debate About Small Machines," BetterHumans BetterHumans, August 16,. 2004, http://www.betterhumans.com/Features/Reports/report.aspx?articleID=2004-08-16-1.

104. 104. Charles B. Musgrave et al., "Theoretical Studies of a Hydrogen Abstraction Tool for Nanotechnology," Charles B. Musgrave et al., "Theoretical Studies of a Hydrogen Abstraction Tool for Nanotechnology," Nanotechnology Nanotechnology 2 (October 1991): 18795; Michael Page and Donald W. Brenner, "Hydrogen Abstraction from a Diamond Surface: Ab initio Quantum Chemical Study with Constrained Isobutane as a Model," 2 (October 1991): 18795; Michael Page and Donald W. Brenner, "Hydrogen Abstraction from a Diamond Surface: Ab initio Quantum Chemical Study with Constrained Isobutane as a Model," Journal of the American Chemical Society Journal of the American Chemical Society 113.9 (1991): 327074; Xiao Yan Chang, Martin Perry, James Peploski, Donald L. Thompson, and Lionel M. Raff, "Theoretical Studies of Hydrogen-Abstraction Reactions from Diamond and Diamond-like Surfaces," 113.9 (1991): 327074; Xiao Yan Chang, Martin Perry, James Peploski, Donald L. Thompson, and Lionel M. Raff, "Theoretical Studies of Hydrogen-Abstraction Reactions from Diamond and Diamond-like Surfaces," Journal of Chemical Physics Journal of Chemical Physics 99 (September 15, 1993): 474858; J. W. Lyding, K. Hess, G. C. Abeln, et al., "UHV-STM Nanofabrication and Hydrogen/Deuterium Desorption from Silicon Surfaces: Implications for CMOS Technology," 99 (September 15, 1993): 474858; J. W. Lyding, K. Hess, G. C. Abeln, et al., "UHV-STM Nanofabrication and Hydrogen/Deuterium Desorption from Silicon Surfaces: Implications for CMOS Technology," Applied Surface Science Applied Surface Science 132 (1998): 221; http://www.hersam-group.northwestern.edu/publications.html; E. T. Foley et al., "Cryogenic UHV-STM Study of Hydrogen and Deuterium Desorption from Silicon(100)," 132 (1998): 221; http://www.hersam-group.northwestern.edu/publications.html; E. T. Foley et al., "Cryogenic UHV-STM Study of Hydrogen and Deuterium Desorption from Silicon(100)," Physical Review Letters Physical Review Letters 80 (1998): 133639, http://prola.aps.org/abstract/PRL/v80/i6/p1336_1; L. J. Lauhon and W. Ho, "Inducing and Observing the Abstraction of a Single Hydrogen Atom in Bimolecular Reaction with a Scanning Tunneling Microscope," 80 (1998): 133639, http://prola.aps.org/abstract/PRL/v80/i6/p1336_1; L. J. Lauhon and W. Ho, "Inducing and Observing the Abstraction of a Single Hydrogen Atom in Bimolecular Reaction with a Scanning Tunneling Microscope," Journal of Physical Chemistry Journal of Physical Chemistry 105 (2000): 398792. 105 (2000): 398792.

105. 105. Stephen P. Walch and Ralph C. Merkle, "Theoretical Studies of Diamond Mechanosynthesis Reactions," Stephen P. Walch and Ralph C. Merkle, "Theoretical Studies of Diamond Mechanosynthesis Reactions," Nanotechnology Nanotechnology 9 (September 1998): 28596; Fedor N. Dzegilenko, Deepak Srivastava, and Subhash Saini, "Simulations of Carbon Nanotube Tip a.s.sisted Mechano-Chemical Reactions on a Diamond Surface," 9 (September 1998): 28596; Fedor N. Dzegilenko, Deepak Srivastava, and Subhash Saini, "Simulations of Carbon Nanotube Tip a.s.sisted Mechano-Chemical Reactions on a Diamond Surface," Nanotechnology Nanotechnology 9 (December 1998): 32530; Ralph C. Merkle and Robert A. Freitas Jr., "Theoretical a.n.a.lysis of a Carbon-Carbon Dimer Placement Tool for Diamond Mechanosynthesis," 9 (December 1998): 32530; Ralph C. Merkle and Robert A. Freitas Jr., "Theoretical a.n.a.lysis of a Carbon-Carbon Dimer Placement Tool for Diamond Mechanosynthesis," Journal of Nanoscience and Nanotechnology Journal of Nanoscience and Nanotechnology 3 (August 2003): 31924, http://www.rfreitas.com/Nano/DimerTool.htm; Jingping Peng, Robert A. Freitas Jr., and Ralph C. Merkle, "Theoretical a.n.a.lysis of Diamond Mechano-Synthesis. Part I. Stability of C 3 (August 2003): 31924, http://www.rfreitas.com/Nano/DimerTool.htm; Jingping Peng, Robert A. Freitas Jr., and Ralph C. Merkle, "Theoretical a.n.a.lysis of Diamond Mechano-Synthesis. Part I. Stability of C2 Mediated Growth of Nanocrystalline Diamond C(1lO) Surface," Mediated Growth of Nanocrystalline Diamond C(1lO) Surface," Journal of Computational and Theoretical Nanoscience Journal of Computational and Theoretical Nanoscience 1 (March 2004): 6270, http://www.moleculara.s.sembler.com/JCTNPengMar04.pdf; David J. Mann, Jingping Peng, Robert A. Freitas Jr., and Ralph C. Merkle, "Theoretical a.n.a.lysis of Diamond MechanoSynthesis. Part II. C 1 (March 2004): 6270, http://www.moleculara.s.sembler.com/JCTNPengMar04.pdf; David J. Mann, Jingping Peng, Robert A. Freitas Jr., and Ralph C. Merkle, "Theoretical a.n.a.lysis of Diamond MechanoSynthesis. Part II. C2 Mediated Growth of Diamond C('lO) Surface via Si/Ge-Triadamantane Dimer Placement Tools," Mediated Growth of Diamond C('lO) Surface via Si/Ge-Triadamantane Dimer Placement Tools," Journal of Computational and Theoretical Nanoscience Journal of Computational and Theoretical Nanoscience 1 (March 2004), 7180, http://www.moleculara.s.sembler.com/JCTNMannMar04.pdf. 1 (March 2004), 7180, http://www.moleculara.s.sembler.com/JCTNMannMar04.pdf.

106. 106. The a.n.a.lysis of the hydrogen abstraction tool and carbon deposition tools has involved many people, including: Donald W. Brenner, Tahir Cagin, Richard J. Colton, K. Eric Drexler, Fedor N. Dzegilenko, Robert A. Freitas Jr., William A. G.o.ddard III, J. A. Harrison, Charles B. Musgrave, Ralph C. Merkle, Michael Page, Jason K. Perry, Subhash Saini, O. A. Shenderova, Susan B. Sinnott, Deepak Srivastava, Stephen P.Walch, and Carter T. White. The a.n.a.lysis of the hydrogen abstraction tool and carbon deposition tools has involved many people, including: Donald W. Brenner, Tahir Cagin, Richard J. Colton, K. Eric Drexler, Fedor N. Dzegilenko, Robert A. Freitas Jr., William A. G.o.ddard III, J. A. Harrison, Charles B. Musgrave, Ralph C. Merkle, Michael Page, Jason K. Perry, Subhash Saini, O. A. Shenderova, Susan B. Sinnott, Deepak Srivastava, Stephen P.Walch, and Carter T. White.

107. 107. Ralph C. Merkle, "A Proposed 'Metabolism' for a Hydrocarbon a.s.sembler," Ralph C. Merkle, "A Proposed 'Metabolism' for a Hydrocarbon a.s.sembler," Nanotechnology Nanotechnology 8 (December 1997): 1462, http://www.iop.org/EJ/abstraet/0957-4484/8/4/001 or http://www.zyvex.com/nanotech/hydroCarbonMetabolism.html. 8 (December 1997): 1462, http://www.iop.org/EJ/abstraet/0957-4484/8/4/001 or http://www.zyvex.com/nanotech/hydroCarbonMetabolism.html.

108. 108. A useful bibliography of references: Robert A. Freitas Jr., "Technical Bibliography for Research on Positional Mechanosynthesis," Foresight Inst.i.tute Web site, December 16, 2003, http://foresight.org/stage2/mechsynthbib.html; Wilson Ho and Hyojune Lee, "Single Bond Formation and Characterization with a Scanning Tunneling Microscope," A useful bibliography of references: Robert A. Freitas Jr., "Technical Bibliography for Research on Positional Mechanosynthesis," Foresight Inst.i.tute Web site, December 16, 2003, http://foresight.org/stage2/mechsynthbib.html; Wilson Ho and Hyojune Lee, "Single Bond Formation and Characterization with a Scanning Tunneling Microscope," Science Science 286.5445 (November 26, 1999): 171922, http://www.physics.uci.edu/~wilsonho/stm-iets.html; K.Eric Drexler, 286.5445 (November 26, 1999): 171922, http://www.physics.uci.edu/~wilsonho/stm-iets.html; K.Eric Drexler, Nanosystems Nanosystems, chapter 8; Ralph Merkle, "Proposed 'Metabolism' for a Hydrocarbon a.s.sembler"; Musgrave et al., "Theoretical Studies of a Hydrogen Abstraction Tool for Nanotechnology"; Michael Page and Donald W. Brenner, "Hydrogen Abstraction from a Diamond Surface: Ab initio Ab initio Quantum Chemical Study with Constrained Isobutane as a Model," Quantum Chemical Study with Constrained Isobutane as a Model," Journal of the American Chemical Society Journal of the American Chemical Society 113.9 (1991): 327074; D. W. Brenner et al., "Simulated Engineering of Nanostructures," 113.9 (1991): 327074; D. W. Brenner et al., "Simulated Engineering of Nanostructures," Nanotechnology Nanotechnology 7 (September 1996): 16167, http://www.zyvex.com/nanotech/nano4/brennerPaper.pdf; S. P. Walch, W. A. G.o.ddard III, and Ralph Merkle, "Theoretical Studies of Reactions on Diamond Surfaces," Fifth Foresight Conference on Molecular Nanotechnology, 1997, http://www.foresight.org/Conferences/MNT05/Abstracts/Walcabst.html; Stephen P. Walch and Ralph C. Merkle, "Theoretical Studies of Diamond Mechanosynthesis Reactions," 7 (September 1996): 16167, http://www.zyvex.com/nanotech/nano4/brennerPaper.pdf; S. P. Walch, W. A. G.o.ddard III, and Ralph Merkle, "Theoretical Studies of Reactions on Diamond Surfaces," Fifth Foresight Conference on Molecular Nanotechnology, 1997, http://www.foresight.org/Conferences/MNT05/Abstracts/Walcabst.html; Stephen P. Walch and Ralph C. Merkle, "Theoretical Studies of Diamond Mechanosynthesis Reactions," Nanotechnology Nanotechnology 9 (September 1998): 28596; Fedor N. Dzegilenko, Deepak Srivastava, and Subhash Saini, "Simulations of Carbon Nanotube Tip a.s.sisted Mechano-Chemical Reactions on a Diamond Surface," 9 (September 1998): 28596; Fedor N. Dzegilenko, Deepak Srivastava, and Subhash Saini, "Simulations of Carbon Nanotube Tip a.s.sisted Mechano-Chemical Reactions on a Diamond Surface," Nanotechnology Nanotechnology 9 (December 1998): 32530; J. W. Lyding et al., "UHV-STM Nanofabrication and Hydrogen/Deuterium Desorption from Silicon Surfaces: Implications for CMOS Technology," 9 (December 1998): 32530; J. W. Lyding et al., "UHV-STM Nanofabrication and Hydrogen/Deuterium Desorption from Silicon Surfaces: Implications for CMOS Technology," Applied Surface Science Applied Surface Science 132 (1998): 221, http://www.hersam-group.northwestem.edu/publications.html; E. T. Foley et al., "Cryogenic UHV-STM Study of Hydrogen and Deuterium Desorption from Silicon(100)," 132 (1998): 221, http://www.hersam-group.northwestem.edu/publications.html; E. T. Foley et al., "Cryogenic UHV-STM Study of Hydrogen and Deuterium Desorption from Silicon(100)," Physical Review Letters Physical Review Letters 80 (1998): 133639, http://prola.aps.org/abstract/PRL/v80/i6/p1336_1; M. C. Hersam, G. CAbeln, and J. W. Lyding, "An Approach for Efficiently Locating and Electrically Contacting Nanostructures Fabricated via UHV-STM Lithography on Si(100)," 80 (1998): 133639, http://prola.aps.org/abstract/PRL/v80/i6/p1336_1; M. C. Hersam, G. CAbeln, and J. W. Lyding, "An Approach for Efficiently Locating and Electrically Contacting Nanostructures Fabricated via UHV-STM Lithography on Si(100)," Microelectronic Engineering Microelectronic Engineering 47 (1999): 23537; L. J. Lauhon and W. Ho, "Inducing and Observing the Abstraction of a Single Hydrogen Atom in Bimolecular Reaction with a Scanning Tunneling Microscope," 47 (1999): 23537; L. J. Lauhon and W. Ho, "Inducing and Observing the Abstraction of a Single Hydrogen Atom in Bimolecular Reaction with a Scanning Tunneling Microscope," Journal of Physical Chemistry Journal of Physical Chemistry 105 (2000): 398792, http://www.physics.uci.edu/~wilsonho/stm-iets.html. 105 (2000): 398792, http://www.physics.uci.edu/~wilsonho/stm-iets.html.

109. 109. Eric Drexler, "Drexler Counters," first published on KurzweilAI.net on November 1, 2003: http://www.KurzweilAI.net/meme/frame.html?main=/articles/art0606.html. See also K. Eric Drexler, Eric Drexler, "Drexler Counters," first published on KurzweilAI.net on November 1, 2003: http://www.KurzweilAI.net/meme/frame.html?main=/articles/art0606.html. See also K. Eric Drexler, Nanosystems: Molecular Machinery, Manufacturing, and Computation Nanosystems: Molecular Machinery, Manufacturing, and Computation (New York: Wiley Interscience, 1992), chapter 8; Ralph C. Merkle, "Foresight Debate with (New York: Wiley Interscience, 1992), chapter 8; Ralph C. Merkle, "Foresight Debate with Scientific American Scientific American" (1995), http://www.foresight.org/SciAmDebate/SciAmResponse.html; Wilson Ho and Hyojune Lee, "Single Bond Formation and Characterization with a Scanning Tunneling Microscope," Science Science 286.5445 (November 26, 1999): 171922, http://www.physics.uci.edu/~wilsonho/stm-iets.html; K. Eric Drexler, David Forrest, Robert A. Freitas Jr., J. Storrs Hall, Neil Jacobstein, Tom McKendree, Ralph Merkle, and Christine Peterson, "On Physics, Fundamentals, and Nanorobots: A Reb.u.t.tal to Smalley's a.s.sertion that Self-Replicating Mechanical Nanorobots Are Simply Not Possible: A Debate About a.s.semblers" (2001), http://www.imm.org/SciAmDebate2/smalley.html. 286.5445 (November 26, 1999): 171922, http://www.physics.uci.edu/~wilsonho/stm-iets.html; K. Eric Drexler, David Forrest, Robert A. Freitas Jr., J. Storrs Hall, Neil Jacobstein, Tom McKendree, Ralph Merkle, and Christine Peterson, "On Physics, Fundamentals, and Nanorobots: A Reb.u.t.tal to Smalley's a.s.sertion that Self-Replicating Mechanical Nanorobots Are Simply Not Possible: A Debate About a.s.semblers" (2001), http://www.imm.org/SciAmDebate2/smalley.html.

110. 110. See http://pubs.acs.org/cen/coverstory/8148/8148counterpoint.html; http://www.kurzweilAI.net/meme/frame.html?main=/articles/art0604.html? See http://pubs.acs.org/cen/coverstory/8148/8148counterpoint.html; http://www.kurzweilAI.net/meme/frame.html?main=/articles/art0604.html?

111. 111. D. Maysinger et al., "Block Copolymers Modify the Internalization of Micelle-Incorporated Probes into Neural Cells," D. Maysinger et al., "Block Copolymers Modify the Internalization of Micelle-Incorporated Probes into Neural Cells," Biochimica et Biophysica Acta Biochimica et Biophysica Acta 1539.3 (June 20, 2001): 20517; R. Savic et al., "Micellar Nanocontainers Distribute to Defined Cytoplasmic Organelles," 1539.3 (June 20, 2001): 20517; R. Savic et al., "Micellar Nanocontainers Distribute to Defined Cytoplasmic Organelles," Science Science 300.5619 (April 25, 2003): 61518. 300.5619 (April 25, 2003): 61518.

112. 112. T. Yamada et al., "Nanopartides for the Delivery of Genes and Drugs to Human Hepatocytes," T. Yamada et al., "Nanopartides for the Delivery of Genes and Drugs to Human Hepatocytes," Nature Biotechnology Nature Biotechnology 21.8 (August 2003): 88590. Published electronically June 29, 2003. Abstract: http://www.nature.com/cgi-taf/DynaPage.taf?file=/nbt/journal/v21/n8/abs/nbt843.html. Short press release from 21.8 (August 2003): 88590. Published electronically June 29, 2003. Abstract: http://www.nature.com/cgi-taf/DynaPage.taf?file=/nbt/journal/v21/n8/abs/nbt843.html. Short press release from Nature Nature: http://www.nature.com/nbt/press_release/nbt0803.html.

113. 113. Richards Grayson et al., "A BioMEMS Review: MEMS Technology for Physiologically Integrated Devices," Richards Grayson et al., "A BioMEMS Review: MEMS Technology for Physiologically Integrated Devices," IEEE Proceedings IEEE Proceedings 92 (2004): 621; Richards Grayson et al., "Molecular Release from a Polymeric Microreservoir Device: Influence of Chemistry, Polymer Swelling, and Loading on Device Performance," 92 (2004): 621; Richards Grayson et al., "Molecular Release from a Polymeric Microreservoir Device: Influence of Chemistry, Polymer Swelling, and Loading on Device Performance," Journal of Biomedical Materials Research Journal of Biomedical Materials Research 69A.3 (June 1, 2004): 50212. 69A.3 (June 1, 2004): 50212.

114. 114. D. Patrick O'Neal et al., "Photo-thermal Tumor Ablation in Mice Using Near Infrared-Absorbing Nanoparticles," D. Patrick O'Neal et al., "Photo-thermal Tumor Ablation in Mice Using Near Infrared-Absorbing Nanoparticles," Cancer Letters Cancer Letters 209.2 (June 25, 2004): 17176. 209.2 (June 25, 2004): 17176.

115. 115. International Energy Agency, from an R. E. Smalley presentation, "Nanotechnology, the S&TWorkforce, Energy & Prosperity," p. 12, presented at PCAST (President's Council of Advisors on Science and Technology), Washington, D.C., March 3, 2003, http://www.ostp.gov/PCAST IPCAST%203-3-03%20R%20Smalley%20Slides.pdf; also at http://cohesion.rice.edu/NaturalSciences/Smalley/emplibrary/PCAST%20March%203,%202003.ppt. International Energy Agency, from an R. E. Smalley presentation, "Nanotechnology, the S&TWorkforce, Energy & Prosperity," p. 12, presented at PCAST (President's Council of Advisors on Science and Technology), Washington, D.C., March 3, 2003, http://www.ostp.gov/PCAST IPCAST%203-3-03%20R%20Smalley%20Slides.pdf; also at http://cohesion.rice.edu/NaturalSciences/Smalley/emplibrary/PCAST%20March%203,%202003.ppt.

116. 116. Smalley, "Nanotechnology, the S&TWorkforce, Energy &Prosperity." Smalley, "Nanotechnology, the S&TWorkforce, Energy &Prosperity."

117. 117. "FutureGen-A Sequestration and Hydrogen Research Initiative," U.S. Department of Energy, Office of Fossil Energy, February 2003, http://www.fossil.energy.gov/programs/powersystems/futuregen/futuregen_factsheet.pdf. "FutureGen-A Sequestration and Hydrogen Research Initiative," U.S. Department of Energy, Office of Fossil Energy, February 2003, http://www.fossil.energy.gov/programs/powersystems/futuregen/futuregen_factsheet.pdf.

118. 118. Drexler, Drexler, Nanosystems Nanosystems, pp. 428, 433.

119. 119. Barnaby J. Feder, "Scientist at Work/Richard Smalley: Small Thoughts for a Global Grid," Barnaby J. Feder, "Scientist at Work/Richard Smalley: Small Thoughts for a Global Grid," New York Times New York Times, September 2, 2003; the following link requires subscription or purchase: http://query.nytimes.com/gst/abstract.html?res=F30C17FC3D5C0C718CDDA00894DB404482.

120. 120. International Energy Agency, from Smalley, "Nanotechnology, the S&T Workforce, Energy & Prosperity," p. 12. International Energy Agency, from Smalley, "Nanotechnology, the S&T Workforce, Energy & Prosperity," p. 12.

121. 121. American Council for the United Nations University, Millennium Project Global Challenge 13: http://www.acunu.org/millennium/ch-13.html. American Council for the United Nations University, Millennium Project Global Challenge 13: http://www.acunu.org/millennium/ch-13.html.

122. 122. "Wireless Transmission in Earth's Energy Future," Environment News Service, November 19, 2002, reporting on Jerome C. Glenn and Theodore J. Gordon in "2002 State of the Future," American Council for the United Nations University (August 2002). "Wireless Transmission in Earth's Energy Future," Environment News Service, November 19, 2002, reporting on Jerome C. Glenn and Theodore J. Gordon in "2002 State of the Future," American Council for the United Nations University (August 2002).

123. 123. Disclosure: the author is an adviser to and investor in this company. Disclosure: the author is an adviser to and investor in this company.

124. 124. "NEC Unveils Methanol-Fueled Laptop," a.s.sociated Press, June 30, 2003, http://www.siliconvalley.com/mld/siliconvalley/news/6203790.htm. reporting on NEC press release, "NEC Unveils Notebook PC with Built-In Fuel Cell," June 30, 2003, http://www.nec.co.jp/press/en/0306/3002.html. "NEC Unveils Methanol-Fueled Laptop," a.s.sociated Press, June 30, 2003, http://www.siliconvalley.com/mld/siliconvalley/news/6203790.htm. reporting on NEC press release, "NEC Unveils Notebook PC with Built-In Fuel Cell," June 30, 2003, http://www.nec.co.jp/press/en/0306/3002.html.

125. 125. Tony Smith, "Toshiba Boffins Prep Laptop Fuel Cell," Tony Smith, "Toshiba Boffins Prep Laptop Fuel Cell," The Register The Register, March 5, 2003, http://www. theregister.co.uk/2003/03/05/toshiba_boffins_prep_laptop _fuel; Yoshiko Hara, "Toshiba Develops Matchbox-Sized Fuel Cell for Mobile Phones," EE Times EE Times, June 24, 2004, http://www.eet.com/article/showArticle.jhtml?articleId=22101804, reporting on Toshiba press release, "Toshiba Announces World's Smallest Direct Methanol Fuel Cell with Energy Output of 100 Milliwats," http://www.toshiba.com/taec/press/dmfc04_222.shtml.

126. 126. Karen Lurie, "Hydrogen Cars," Karen Lurie, "Hydrogen Cars," ScienceCentral News ScienceCentral News, May 13, 2004, http://www.sciencentral.com/articles/view.php3?language=english&type=article&article_id=218392247.

127. 127. Louise Knapp, "Booze to Fuel Gadget Batteries," Louise Knapp, "Booze to Fuel Gadget Batteries," Wired News Wired News, April 2, 2003, http://www.wired.com/news/gizmos/0,1452,58119,00.html, and St. Louis University press release, "Powered by Your Liquor Cabinet, New Biofuel Cell Could Replace Rechargeable Batteries," March 24, 2003, http.//www.slu.edu/readstory/newsinfo/2474, reporting on Nick Akers and Sh.e.l.ley Minteer, "Towards the Development of a Membrane Electrode a.s.sembly," presented at the American Chemical Society national meeting, Anaheim, Calif. (2003).

128. 128. "Biofuel Cell Runs on Metabolic Energy to Power Medical Implants," "Biofuel Cell Runs on Metabolic Energy to Power Medical Implants," Nature Online Nature Online, November 12, 2002, http://www.nature.com/news/2002/021111/full/021111-1.html, reporting on N. Mano, F.Mao, and A. h.e.l.ler, "A Miniature Biofuel Cell Operating in a Physiological Buffer," Journal of the American Chemical Society Journal of the American Chemical Society 124 (2002): 1296263. 124 (2002): 1296263.

129. 129. "Power from Blood Could Lead to 'Human Batteries,' " "Power from Blood Could Lead to 'Human Batteries,' " FairfaxDigital FairfaxDigital, August 4, 2003, http://www.smh.com.au/articles/2003/08/03/1059849278131.html?oneclick=true. Read more about the microbial fuel cells here: http://www.geobacter.org/research/microbial/. Matsuhiko Nishizawa's BioMEMs laboratory diagrams a micro-biofuel cell: http://www.biomems.mech.tohoku.ac.jp/research_e.html. This short article describes work on an implantable, nontoxic power source that now can produce 0.2 watts: http://www.iol.co.za/index.php?se_id=l&click_id=31&art_id=qw111596760144B215.

130. 130. Mike Martin, "Pace-Setting Nanotubes May Power Micro-Devices," Mike Martin, "Pace-Setting Nanotubes May Power Micro-Devices," NewsFactor NewsFactor, February 27, 2003, http://physics.iisc.ernet.in/~asood/Pace-Setting%20Nano tubes%20May%20Power%20Micro-Devices.htm.

131. 131. "Finally, it is possible to derive a limit to the total planetary active nanorobot ma.s.s by considering the global energy balance. Total solar insolation received at the Earth's surface is ~1.75 i 10 "Finally, it is possible to derive a limit to the total planetary active nanorobot ma.s.s by considering the global energy balance. Total solar insolation received at the Earth's surface is ~1.75 i 1017 watts (I watts (IEarth ~ 1370 W/m ~ 1370 W/m2 0.4% at normal incidence)," Robert A. Freitas Jr., 0.4% at normal incidence)," Robert A. Freitas Jr., Nanomedicine Nanomedicine, vol. 1, Basic Capabilities Basic Capabilities, section 6.5.7, "Global Hypsithermal Limit" (Georgetown, Tex.: Landes Bioscience, 1999), pp. 175-76, http://www.nanomedicine.com/NMI/6.5.7.htm#p1.

132. 132. This a.s.sumes 10 billion (10 This a.s.sumes 10 billion (1010) persons, a power density for nanorobots of around 107 watts per cubic meter, a nanorobot size of one cubic micron, and a power draw of about 10 picowatts (10 watts per cubic meter, a nanorobot size of one cubic micron, and a power draw of about 10 picowatts (10-11 watts) per nanorobot. The hypsithermal limit of 10 watts) per nanorobot. The hypsithermal limit of 1016 watts implies about 10 kilograms of nanorobots per person, or 10 watts implies about 10 kilograms of nanorobots per person, or 1016 nanorobots per person. Robert A. Freitas Jr., nanorobots per person. Robert A. Freitas Jr., Nanomedicine Nanomedicine, vol. 1, Basic Capabilities Basic Capabilities, section 6.5.7 "Global Hypsithermal Limit" (Georgetown, Tex.: Landes Bioscience, 1999), pp. 175-76, http://www.nanomedicine.com/NMI/6.5.7.htm#p4.

133. 133. Alternatively, nanotechnology can be designed to be extremely energy efficient in the first place so that energy recapture would be unnecessary, and infeasible because there would be relatively little heat dissipation to recapture. In a private communication (January 2005), Robert A. Freitas Jr. writes: "Drexler ( Alternatively, nanotechnology can be designed to be extremely energy efficient in the first place so that energy recapture would be unnecessary, and infeasible because there would be relatively little heat dissipation to recapture. In a private communication (January 2005), Robert A. Freitas Jr. writes: "Drexler (Nanosystems: 396) claims that energy dissipation may in theory be as low as Ediss ~ 0.1 MJ/kg 'if one a.s.sumes the development of a set of mechanochemical processes capable of transforming feedstock molecules into complex product structures using only reliable, nearly reversible steps: 0.1 MJ/kg of diamond corresponds roughly to the minimum thermal noise at room temperature (e.g., kT ~ 4 zJ/atom at 298 K)." ~ 0.1 MJ/kg 'if one a.s.sumes the development of a set of mechanochemical processes capable of transforming feedstock molecules into complex product structures using only reliable, nearly reversible steps: 0.1 MJ/kg of diamond corresponds roughly to the minimum thermal noise at room temperature (e.g., kT ~ 4 zJ/atom at 298 K)."

134. 134. Alexis De Vos, Alexis De Vos, Endoreversible Thermodynamics of Solar Energy Conversion Endoreversible Thermodynamics of Solar Energy Conversion (London: Oxford University Press, 1992), p. 103. (London: Oxford University Press, 1992), p. 103.

135. 135. R. D. Schaller and V. 1. Klimov, "High Efficiency Carrier Multiplication in PbSe Nanocrystals: Implications for Solar Energy Conversion," R. D. Schaller and V. 1. Klimov, "High Efficiency Carrier Multiplication in PbSe Nanocrystals: Implications for Solar Energy Conversion," Physical Review Letters Physical Review Letters 92.18 (May 7, 2004): 186601. 92.18 (May 7, 2004): 186601.

136. 136. National Academies Press, Commission on Physical Sciences, Mathematics, and Applications, Harnessing Light: Optical Science and Engineering for the 21st Century, (Washington, D.C.: National Academy Press, 1998), p. 166, http://books.nap.edu/books/0309059917/html/166.html. National Academies Press, Commission on Physical Sciences, Mathematics, and Applications, Harnessing Light: Optical Science and Engineering for the 21st Century, (Washington, D.C.: National Academy Press, 1998), p. 166, http://books.nap.edu/books/0309059917/html/166.html.

137. 137. Matt Marshall, "World Events Spark Interest in Solar Cell Energy Start-ups," Mercury News, August 15, 2004, http://www.konarkatech.com/news_articles_082004/b-silicon_ valley.php and http://www.nanosolar.com/cache/merc081504.htm. Matt Marshall, "World Events Spark Interest in Solar Cell Energy Start-ups," Mercury News, August 15, 2004, http://www.konarkatech.com/news_articles_082004/b-silicon_ valley.php and http://www.nanosolar.com/cache/merc081504.htm.

138. 138. John Gartner, "NASA s.p.a.ces on Energy Solution," John Gartner, "NASA s.p.a.ces on Energy Solution," Wired News Wired News, June 22, 2004, http://www.wired.com/news/technology/0,1282,63913,00.html. See also Arthur Smith, "The Case for Solar Power from s.p.a.ce," http://www.lis.p.a.ce.org/articles/SSPCase.html.

139. 139. "The s.p.a.ce Elevator Primer," s.p.a.ceward Foundation, http://www.elevator2010.org/site/primer.html. "The s.p.a.ce Elevator Primer," s.p.a.ceward Foundation, http://www.elevator2010.org/site/primer.html.

140. 140. Kenneth Chang, "Experts Say New Desktop Fusion Claims Seem More Credible," Kenneth Chang, "Experts Say New Desktop Fusion Claims Seem More Credible," New York Times New York Times, March 3, 2004, http://www.rpi.edu/web/News/nytlahey3.html, reporting on R. P. Taleyarkhan, "Additional Evidence of Nuclear Emissions During Acoustic Cavitation," Physical Review E: Statistical, Nonlinear, and Soft Matter Physics Physical Review E: Statistical, Nonlinear, and Soft Matter Physics 69.3, pt. 2 (March 2004): 036109. 69.3, pt. 2 (March 2004): 036109.

141. 141. The original Pons and Fleischman method of desktop cold fusion using palladium electrodes is not dead. Ardent advocates have continued to pursue the technology, and the Department of Energy announced in 2004 that it was conducting a new formal review of the recent research in this field. Toni Feder, "DOE Warms to Cold Fusion," The original Pons and Fleischman method of desktop cold fusion using palladium electrodes is not dead. Ardent advocates have continued to pursue the technology, and the Department of Energy announced in 2004 that it was conducting a new formal review of the recent research in this field. Toni Feder, "DOE Warms to Cold Fusion," Physics Today Physics Today (April 2004), http://www.physicstoday.org/vol-57/iss-4/p27.html. (April 2004), http://www.physicstoday.org/vol-57/iss-4/p27.html.

142. 142. Akira Fujishima, Tata N. Rao, and Donald A. Tryk, "t.i.tanium Dioxide Photocatalysis," Akira Fujishima, Tata N. Rao, and Donald A. Tryk, "t.i.tanium Dioxide Photocatalysis," Journal of Photochemistry and Photobiology C: Photochemistry Review Journal of Photochemistry and Photobiology C: Photochemistry Review 1 (June 29, 2000): 121; Prashant V. Kamat, Rebecca Huehn, and Roxana Nicolaescu, "A 'Sense and Shoot' Approach for Photocatalytic Degradation of Organic Contaminants in Water," 1 (June 29, 2000): 121; Prashant V. Kamat, Rebecca Huehn, and Roxana Nicolaescu, "A 'Sense and Shoot' Approach for Photocatalytic Degradation of Organic Contaminants in Water," Journal of Physical Chemistry B Journal of Physical Chemistry B 106 (January 31, 2002): 78894. 106 (January 31, 2002): 78894.

143. 143. A. G. Panov et al., "Photooxidation of Toluene and p-Xylene in Cation-Exchanged Zeolites X, Y, ZSM-5, and Beta: The Role of Zeolite Physicochemical Properties in Product Yield and Selectivity," A. G. Panov et al., "Photooxidation of Toluene and p-Xylene in Cation-Exchanged Zeolites X, Y, ZSM-5, and Beta: The Role of Zeolite Physicochemical Properties in Product Yield and Selectivity," Journal of Physical Chemistry B Journal of Physical Chemistry B 104 (June 22, 2000): 570614. 104 (June 22, 2000): 570614.

144. 144. Gabor A. Somorjai and Keith McCrea, "Roadmap for Catalysis Science in the 21st Century: A Personal View of Building the Future on Past and Present Accomplishments," Gabor A. Somorjai and Keith McCrea, "Roadmap for Catalysis Science in the 21st Century: A Personal View of Building the Future on Past and Present Accomplishments," Applied Catalysis Applied Catalysis A:General 222.12 (2001): 318, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory number 3.LBNL-48555, http://www.cchem.berkeley.edu/~gasgrp/2000.html (publication 877). See also Zhao, Lu, and Millar, "Advances in mesoporous molecular sieve MCM-41," A:General 222.12 (2001): 318, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory number 3.LBNL-48555, http://www.cchem.berkeley.edu/~gasgrp/2000.html (publication 877). See also Zhao, Lu, and Millar, "Advances in mesoporous molecular sieve MCM-41," Industrial & Engineering Chemistry Research Industrial & Engineering Chemistry Research 35 (1996): 207590, http://cheed.nus.edu.sg/~chezxs/Zhao/publication/1996_2075.pdf. 35 (1996): 207590, http://cheed.nus.edu.sg/~chezxs/Zhao/publication/1996_2075.pdf.

145. 145. NTSC/NSET report, NTSC/NSET report, National Nanotechnology Initiative: The Initiative and Its Implementation Plan National Nanotechnology Initiative: The Initiative and Its Implementation Plan, July 2000, http://www.nano.gov/html/res/nni2.pdf.

146. 146. Wei-xian Zhang, Chuan-Bao w.a.n.g, and Hsing-Lung Lien, "Treatment of Chlorinated Organic Contaminants with Nanoscale Bimetallic Particles," Wei-xian Zhang, Chuan-Bao w.a.n.g, and Hsing-Lung Lien, "Treatment of Chlorinated Organic Contaminants with Nanoscale Bimetallic Particles," Catalysis Today Catalysis Today 40 (May 14, 1988): 38795. 40 (May 14, 1988): 38795.

147. 147. R. Q. Long and R. T. Yang, "Carbon Nanotubes as Superior Sorbent for Dioxin Removal," R. Q. Long and R. T. Yang, "Carbon Nanotubes as Superior Sorbent for Dioxin Removal," Journal of the American Chemical Society Journal of the American Chemical Society 123.9 (2001): 205859. 123.9 (2001): 205859.

148. 148. Robert A. Freitas, Jr. "Death Is an Outrage!" presented at the Fifth AlcorConference on Extreme Life Extension, Newport Beach, California, November 16, 2002, http://www.rfreitas.com/Nano/DeathIsAnOutrage.htm. Robert A. Freitas, Jr. "Death Is an Outrage!" presented at the Fifth AlcorConference on Extreme Life Extension, Newport Beach, California, November 16, 2002, http://www.rfreitas.com/Nano/DeathIsAnOutrage.htm.

149. 149. For example, the fifth annual BIOMEMS conference, June 2003, San Jose, http://www.knowledgepress.com/events/11201717.htm. For example, the fifth annual BIOMEMS conference, June 2003, San Jose, http://www.knowledgepress.com/events/11201717.htm.

150. 150. First two volumes of a planned four-volume series: Robert A. Freitas Jr., First two volumes of a planned four-volume series: Robert A. Freitas Jr., Nanomedicine Nanomedicine, vol. I, Basic Capabilities Basic Capabilities (Georgetown, Tex.: Landes Bioscience, 1999); (Georgetown, Tex.: Landes Bioscience, 1999); Nanomedicine Nanomedicine, vol. IIA, Biocompatibility Biocompatibility (Georgetown, Tex.: Landes Bioscience, 2003); http://www.nanomedicine.com. (Georgetown, Tex.: Landes Bioscience, 2003); http://www.nanomedicine.com.

151. 151. Robert A. Freitas Jr., "Exploratory Design in Medical Nanotechnology: A Mechanical Artificial Red Cell," Robert A. Freitas Jr., "Exploratory Design in Medical Nanotechnology: A Mechanical Artificial Red Cell," Artificial Cells, Blood Subst.i.tutes, and Immobilization Biotechnology Artificial Cells, Blood Subst.i.tutes, and Immobilization Biotechnology 26 (1998): 41130, http://www.foresight.org.Nanomedicine/Respirocytes.html. 26 (1998): 41130, http://www.foresight.org.Nanomedicine/Respirocytes.html.

152. 152. Robert A. Freitas Jr., "Microbivores: Artificial Mechanical Phagocytes using Digest and Discharge Protocol," Zyvex preprint, March 2001, http://www.rfreitas.com/Nano/Microbivores.htm; Robert A. Freitas Jr., "Microbivores: Artificial Mechanical Phagocytes," Robert A. Freitas Jr., "Microbivores: Artificial Mechanical Phagocytes using Digest and Discharge Protocol," Zyvex preprint, March 2001, http://www.rfreitas.com/Nano/Microbivores.htm; Robert A. Freitas Jr., "Microbivores: Artificial Mechanical Phagocytes," Foresight Update Foresight Update no. 44, March 31, 2001, pp. 1113, http://www.imm.org/Reports/Rep025.html; see also microbivore images at the Nanomedicine Art Gallery, http://www.foresight.org/Nanomedicine/Gallery/ Species/Microbivores.html. no. 44, March 31, 2001, pp. 1113, http://www.imm.org/Reports/Rep025.html; see also microbivore images at the Nanomedicine Art Gallery, http://www.foresight.org/Nanomedicine/Gallery/ Species/Microbivores.html.

153. 153. Robert A. Freitas Jr., Robert A. Freitas Jr., Nanomedicine Nanomedicine, vol. I, Basic Capabilities Basic Capabilities, section 9.4.2.5 "Nanomechanisms for Natation" (Georgetown, Tex.: Landes Bioscience, 1999), pp. 30912, http://www.nanomedicine.com/NMI/9.4.2.5.htm.

154. 154. George Whitesides, "Nanoinspiration: The Once and Future Nanomachine," George Whitesides, "Nanoinspiration: The Once and Future Nanomachine," Scientific American Scientific American 285.3 (September 16,2001): 7883. 285.3 (September 16,2001): 7883.

155. 155. "According to Einstein's approximation for Brownian motion, after 1 second has elapsed at room temperature a fluidic water molecule has, on average, diffused a distance of ~50 microns (~400,000 molecular diameters) whereas a l-rnicron nanorobot immersed in that same fluid has displaced by only ~0.7 microns (only ~0.7 device diameter) during the same time period. Thus Brownian motion is at most a minor source of navigational error for motile medical nanorobots," See K. Eric Drexler et al., "Many Future Nanomachines: A Reb.u.t.tal to Whitesides' a.s.sertion That Mechanical Molecular a.s.semblers Are Not Workable and Not a Concern," a Debate about a.s.semblers, Inst.i.tute for Molecular Manufacturing, 2001, http://www.imm.org/SciAmDebate2/whitesides.html. "According to Einstein's approximation for Brownian motion, after 1 second has elapsed at room temperature a fluidic water molecule has, on average, diffused a distance of ~50 microns (~400,000 molecular diameters) whereas a l-rnicron nanorobot immersed in that same fluid has displaced by only ~0.7 microns (only ~0.7 device diameter) during the same time period. Thus Brownian motion is at most a minor source of navigational error for motile medical nanorobots," See K. Eric Drexler et al., "Many Future Nanomachines: A Reb.u.t.tal to Whitesides' a.s.sertion That Mechanical Molecular a.s.semblers Are Not Workable and Not a Concern," a Debate about a.s.semblers, Inst.i.tute for Molecular Manufacturing, 2001, http://www.imm.org/SciAmDebate2/whitesides.html.

156. 156. Tejal A. Desai, "MEMS-Based Technologies for Cellular Encapsulation," Tejal A. Desai, "MEMS-Based Technologies for Cellular Encapsulation," American Journal of Drug Delivery American Journal of Drug Delivery 1.1 (2003): 311, abstract available at http://www.ingentaconnect.com/search/expand?pub=infobike://adis/add/2003/00000001/00000001/art00001. 1.1 (2003): 311, abstract available at http://www.ingentaconnect.com/search/expand?pub=infobike://adis/add/2003/00000001/00000001/art00001.

157. 157. As quoted by Douglas Hofstadter in As quoted by Douglas Hofstadter in G.o.del, Escher, Bach: An Eternal Golden Braid G.o.del, Escher, Bach: An Eternal Golden Braid (New York: Basic Books, 1979). (New York: Basic Books, 1979).

158. 158. The author runs a company, FATKAT (Financial Accelerating Transactions by Kurzweil Adaptive Technologies), which applies computerized pattern recognition to financial data to make stock-market investment decisions, http://www.FatKat.com. The author runs a company, FATKAT (Financial Accelerating Transactions by Kurzweil Adaptive Technologies), which applies computerized pattern recognition to financial data to make stock-market investment decisions, http://www.FatKat.com.

159. 159. See discussion in chapter 2 on price-performance improvements in computer memory and electronics in general. See discussion in chapter 2 on price-performance improvements in computer memory and electronics in general.

160. 160. Runaway AI refers to a scenario where, as Max More describes, "superintelligent Runaway AI refers to a scenario where, as Max More describes, "superintelligent machines machines, initially harnessed for human human benefit, soon leave us behind." Max More, "Embrace, Don't Relinquish, the Future," http://www.KurzweilAI.net/articles/art0106.html?printable=1. See also Damien Broderick's description of the "Seed AI": "A self-improving seed AI could run glacially slowly on a limited machine substrate. The point is, so long as it has the capacity to improve itself, at some point it will do so convulsively, bursting through any architectural bottlenecks to design its own improved hardware, maybe even build it (if it's allowed control of tools in a fabrication plant)." Damien Broderick, "Tearing Toward the Spike," presented at "Australia at the Crossroads? Scenarios and Strategies for the Future" (April 31May 2,2000), published on KurzweilAI.net May 7, 2001, http://www.KurzweilAI.net/meme/frame.html?main=/articles/art0173.html. benefit, soon leave us behind." Max More, "Embrace, Don't Relinquish, the Future," http://www.KurzweilAI.net/articles/art0106.html?printable=1. See also Damien Broderick's description of the "Seed AI": "A self-improving seed AI could run glacially slowly on a limited machine substrate. The point is, so long as it has the capacity to improve itself, at some point it will do so convulsively, bursting through any architectural bottlenecks to design its own improved hardware, maybe even build it (if it's allowed control of tools in a fabrication plant)." Damien Broderick, "Tearing Toward the Spike," presented at "Australia at the Crossroads? Scenarios and Strategies for the Future" (April 31May 2,2000), published on KurzweilAI.net May 7, 2001, http://www.KurzweilAI.net/meme/frame.html?main=/articles/art0173.html.

161. 161. David Talbot, "Lord of the Robots," David Talbot, "Lord of the Robots," Technology Review Technology Review (April 2002). (April 2002).

162. 162. Heather Havenstein writes that the "inflated notions sp.a.w.ned by science fiction writers about the convergence of humans and machines tarnished the image of AI in the 1980s because AI was perceived as failing to live up to its potential." Heather Havenstein, "Spring Comes to AI Winter: A Thousand Applications Bloom in Medicine, Customer Service, Education and Manufacturing," Heather Havenstein writes that the "inflated notions sp.a.w.ned by science fiction writers about the convergence of humans and machines tarnished the image of AI in the 1980s because AI was perceived as failing to live up to its potential." Heather Havenstein, "Spring Comes to AI Winter: A Thousand Applications Bloom in Medicine, Customer Service, Education and Manufacturing," Computerworld Computerworld, February 14, 2005, http://www.computerworld.com/softwaretopics/software/story/0,10801,99691,00.html. This tarnished image led to "AI Winter," defined as "a term coined by Richard Gabriel for the (circa 199094?) crash of the wave of enthusiasm for the AI language Lisp and AI itself, following a boom in the 1980s." Duane Rettig wrote: "... companies rode the great AI wave in the early 80's, when large corporations poured billions of dollars into the AI hype that promised thinking machines in 10 years. When the promises turned out to be harder than originally thought, the AI wave crashed, and Lisp crashed with it because of its a.s.sociation with AI. We refer to it as the AI Winter." Duane Rettig quoted in "AI Winter," http://c2.com/cgi/wiki?AiWinter.

163. 163. The General Problem Solver (GPS) computer program, written in 1957, was able to solve problems through rules that allowed the GPS to divide a problem's goals into subgoals, and then check if obtaining a particular subgoal would bring the GPS closer to solving the overall goal. In the early 1960s Thomas Evan wrote a.n.a.lOGY, a "program [that] solves geometric-a.n.a.logy problems of the form A:B::C:? taken from IQ tests and college entrance exams." Boicho Kokinov and Robert M. French, "Computational Models of a.n.a.logy-Making," in L. Nadel, ed., The General Problem Solver (GPS) computer program, written in 1957, was able to solve problems through rules that allowed the GPS to divide a problem's goals into subgoals, and then check if obtaining a particular subgoal would bring the GPS closer to solving the overall goal. In the early 1960s Thomas Evan wrote a.n.a.lOGY, a "program [that] solves geometric-a.n.a.logy problems of the form A:B::C:? taken from IQ tests and college entrance exams." Boicho Kokinov and Robert M. French, "Computational Models of a.n.a.logy-Making," in L. Nadel, ed., Encyclopedia of Cognitive Science Encyclopedia of Cognitive Science, vol. 1 (London: Nature Publishing Group, 2003), pp. 11318. See also A. Newell, J. C. Shaw, and H. A. Simon, "Report on a General Problem-Solving Program," Proceedings of the International Conference on Information Processing Proceedings of the International Conference on Information Processing (Paris: UNESCO House, 1959), pp. 25664; Thomas Evans, "A Heuristic Program to Solve Geometric-a.n.a.logy Problems," in M. Minsky, ed., (Paris: UNESCO House, 1959), pp. 25664; Thomas Evans, "A Heuristic Program to Solve Geometric-a.n.a.logy Problems," in M. Minsky, ed., Semantic Information Processing Semantic Information Processing (Cambridge, Ma.s.s.: MIT Press, 1968). (Cambridge, Ma.s.s.: MIT Press, 1968).

164. 164. Sir Arthur Conan Doyle, "The Red-Headed League," 1890, available at http://www.eastoftheweb.com/short-stories/UBooks/RedHead.shtml. Sir Arthur Conan Doyle, "The Red-Headed League," 1890, available at http://www.eastoftheweb.com/short-stories/UBooks/RedHead.shtml.

165. 165. V. Yu et al., "Antimicrobial Selection by a Computer: A Blinded Evaluation by Infectious Diseases Experts," V. Yu et al., "Antimicrobial Selection by a Computer: A Blinded Evaluation by Infectious Diseases Experts," JAMA JAMA 242.12 (1979): 127982. 242.12 (1979): 127982.

166. 166. Gary H. Anthes, "Computerizing Common Sense," Gary H. Anthes, "Computerizing Common Sense," Computerworld Computerworld, April 8, 2002, http://www.computerworld.com/news/2002/story/0,11280,69881,00.html.

167. 167. Kristen Philipkoski, "Now Here's a Really Big Idea," Kristen Philipkoski, "Now Here's a Really Big Idea," Wired News Wired News, November 25, 2002, http://www.wired.com/news/technology/0,1282,56374,00.html, reporting on Darryl Macer, "The Next Challenge Is to Map the Human Mind," Nature Nature 420 (November 14, 2002): 121; see also a description of the project at http://www.biol.tsukuba.ac.jp/~macer/index.html. 420 (November 14, 2002): 121; see also a description of the project at http://www.biol.tsukuba.ac.jp/~macer/index.html.

168. 168. Thomas Bayes, "An Essay Towards Solving a Problem in the Doctrine of Chances," published in 1763, two years after his death in 1761. Thomas Bayes, "An Essay Towards Solving a Problem in the Doctrine of Chances," published in 1763, two years after his death in 1761.

169. 169. SpamBayes spam filter, http://spambayes.sourceforge.net. SpamBayes spam filter, http://spambayes.sourceforge.net.

170. 170. Lawrence R. Rabiner, "A Tutorial on Hidden Markov Models and Selected Applications in Speech Recognition," Lawrence R. Rabiner, "A Tutorial on Hidden Markov Models and Selected Applications in Speech Recognition," Proceedings of the IEEE Proceedings of the IEEE 77 (1989): 25786. For a mathematical treatment of Markov models, see http://jedlik.phy.bme.hu/~gerjanos/HMM/node2.html. 77 (1989): 25786. For a mathematical treatment of Markov models, see http://jedlik.phy.bme.hu/~gerjanos/HMM/node2.html.

171. 171. Kurzweil Applied Intelligence (KAI), founded by the author in 1982, was sold in 1997 for $100 million and is now part of ScanSoft (formerly called Kurzweil Computer Products, the author's first company, which was sold to Xerox in 1980), now a public company. KAI introduced the first commercially marketed large-vocabulary speech-recognition system in 1987 (Kurzweil Voice Report, with a ten-thousand-word vocabulary). Kurzweil Applied Intelligence (KAI), founded by the author in 1982, was sold in 1997 for $100 million and is now part of ScanSoft (formerly called Kurzweil Computer Products, the author's first company, which was sold to Xerox in 1980), now a public company. KAI introduced the first commercially marketed large-vocabulary speech-recognition system in 1987 (Kurzweil Voice Report, with a ten-thousand-word vocabulary).

172. 172. Here is the basic schema for a neural net algorithm. Many variations are possible, and the designer of the system needs to provide certain critical parameters and methods, detailed below. Here is the basic schema for a neural net algorithm. Many variations are possible, and the designer of the system needs to provide certain critical parameters and methods, detailed below.

Creating a neural-net solution to a problem involves the following steps: Define the input. Define the input. Define the topology of the neural net (i.e., the layers of neurons and the connections between the neurons). Define the topology of the neural net (i.e., the layers of neurons and the connections between the neurons). Train the neural net on examples of the problem. Train the neural net on examples of the problem. Run the trained neural net to solve new examples of the problem. Run the trained neural net to solve new examples of the problem. Take your neural-net company public. Take your neural-net company public.These steps (except for the last one) are detailed below:The Problem InputThe problem input to the neural net consists of a series of numbers. This input can be: In a visual pattern-recognition system, a two-dimensional array of numbers representing the pixels of an image; or In a visual pattern-recognition system, a two-dimensional array of numbers representing the pixels of an image; or In an auditory (e.g., speech) recognition system, a two-dimensional array of numbers representing a sound, in which the first dimension represents parameters of the sound (e.g., frequency components) and the second dimension represents different points in time; or In an auditory (e.g., speech) recognition system, a two-dimensional array of numbers representing a sound, in which the first dimension represents parameters of the sound (e.g., frequency components) and the second dimension represents different points in time; or In an arbitrary pattern-recognition system, an n-dimensional array of numbers representing the input pattern. In an arbitrary pattern-recognition system, an n-dimensional array of numbers representing the input pattern.Defining the TopologyTo set up the neural net, the architecture of each neuron consists of: Multiple inputs in which each input is "connected" to either the output of another neuron, or one of the input numbers. Multiple inputs in which each input is "connected" to either the output of another neuron, or one of the input numbers. Generally, a single output, which is connected either to the input of another neuron (which is usually in a higher layer), or to the final output. Generally, a single output, which is connected either to the input of another neuron (which is usually in a higher layer), or to the final output.Set Up the First Layer of Neurons Create N Create N0 neurons in the first layer. For each of these neurons, "connect" each of the multiple inputs of the neuron to "points" (i.e., numbers) in the problem input. These connections can be determined randomly or using an evolutionary algorithm (see below). neurons in the first layer. For each of these neurons, "connect" each of the multiple inputs of the neuron to "points" (i.e., numbers) in the problem input. These connections can be determined randomly or using an evolutionary algorithm (see below). a.s.sign an initial "synaptic strength" to each connection created. These weights can start out all the same, can be a.s.signed randomly, or can be determined in another way (see below). a.s.sign an initial "synaptic strength" to each connection created. These weights can start out all the same, can be a.s.signed randomly, or can be determined in another way (see below).Set Up the Additional Layers of NeuronsSet up a total of M layers of neurons. For each layer, set up the neurons in that layer.For layeri: Create N Create Ni neurons in layer., For each of these neurons, "connect" each of the multiple inputs of the neuron to the outputs of the neurons in layer neurons in layer., For each of these neurons, "connect" each of the multiple inputs of the neuron to the outputs of the neurons in layeri-1 (see variations below). (see variations below). a.s.sign an initial "synaptic strength" to each connection created. These weights can start out all the same, can be a.s.signed randomly, or can be determined in another way (see below). a.s.sign an initial "synaptic strength" to each connection created. These weights can start out all the same, can be a.s.signed randomly, or can be determined in another way (see below). The outputs of the neurons in layer The outputs of the neurons in layerM are the outputs of the neural net (see variations below). are the outputs of the neural net (see variations below).The Recognition TrialsHow Each Neuron WorksOnce the neuron is set up, it does the following for each recognition trial: Each weighted input to the neuron is computed by multiplying the output of the other neuron (or initial input) that the input to this neuron is connected to by the synaptic strength of that connection. Each weighted input to the neuron is computed by multiplying the output of the other neuron (or initial input) that the input to this neuron is connected to by the synaptic strength of that connection. All of these weighted inputs to the neuron are summed. All of these weighted inputs to the neuron are summed. If this sum is greater than the firing threshold of this neuron, then this neuron is considered to fire and its output is 1. Otherwise, its output is 0 (see variations below). If this sum is greater than the firing threshold of this neuron, then this neuron is considered to fire and its output is 1. Otherwise, its output is 0 (see variations below).Do the Following for Each Recognition TrialFor each layer, from layer, to layerM:For each neuron in the layer: Sum its weighted inputs (each weighted input = the output of the other neuron [or initial input] that the input to this neuron is connected to multiplied by the synaptic strength of that connection). Sum its weighted inputs (each weighted input = the output of the other neuron [or initial input] that the input to this neuron is connected to multiplied by the synaptic strength of that connection). If this sum of weighted inputs is greater than the firing threshold for this neuron, set the output of this neuron = 1, otherwise set it to 0. If this sum of weighted inputs is greater than the firing threshold for this neuron, set the output of this neuron = 1, otherwise set it to 0.To Train the Neural Net Run repeated recognition trials on sample problems. Run repeated recognition trials on sample problems. After each trial, adjust the synaptic strengths of all the interneuronal connections to improve the performance of the neural net on this trial (see the discussion below on how to do this). After each trial, adjust the synaptic strengths of all the interneuronal connections to improve the performance of the neural net on this trial (see the discussion below on how to do this). Continue this training until the accuracy rate of the neural net is no longer improving (i.e., reaches an asymptote). Continue this training until the accuracy rate of the neural net is no longer improving (i.e., reaches an asymptote).Key Design DecisionsIn the simple schema above, the designer of this neural-net algorithm needs to determine at the outset: What the input numbers represent. What the input numbers represent. The number of layers of neurons. The number of layers of neurons. The number of neurons in each layer. (Each layer does not necessarily need to have the same number of neurons.) The number of neurons in each layer. (Each layer does not necessarily need to have the same number of neurons.) The number of inputs to each neuron in each layer. The number of inputs (i.e., interneuronal connections) can also vary from neuron to neuron and from layer to layer. The number of inputs to each neuron in each layer. The number of inputs (i.e., interneuronal connections) can also vary from neuron to neuron and from layer to layer. The actual "wiring" (i.e., the connections). For each neuron in each layer, this consists of a list of other neurons, the outputs of which const.i.tute the inputs to this neuron. This represents a key design area. There are a number of possible ways to do this: The actual "wiring" (i.e., the connections). For each neuron in each layer, this consists of a list of other neurons, the outputs of which const.i.tute the inputs to this neuron. This represents a key design area. There are a number of possible ways to do this:(i)Wire the neural net randomly; or Wire the neural net randomly; or(ii) Use an evolutionary algorithm (see below) to determine an optimal wiring; or Use an evolutionary algorithm (see below) to determine an optimal wiring; or(iii) Use the system designer's best judgment in determining the wiring. Use the system designer's best judgment in determining the wiring. The initial synaptic strengths (i.e., weights) of each connection. There are a number of possible ways to do this: The initial synaptic strengths (i.e., weights) of each connection. There are a number of possible ways to do this:(i)Set the synaptic strengths to the same value; or Set the synaptic strengths to the same value; or(ii) Set the synaptic strengths to different random values; or Set the synaptic strengths to different random values; or(iii) Use an evolutionary algorithm to determine an optimal set of initial values; or Use an evolutionary algorithm to determine an optimal set of initial values; or(iv) Use the system designer's best judgment in determining the initial values. Use the system designer's best judgment in determining the initial values. The firing threshold of each neuron. The firing threshold of each neuron. The output. The output can be: The output. The output can be:(i)the outputs of layer the outputs of layerM of neurons; or of neurons; or(ii) the output of a single output neuron, the inputs of which are the outputs of the neurons in layer the output of a single output neuron, the inputs of which are the outputs of the neurons in layerM; or(iii) a function of (e.g., a sum of) the outputs of the neurons in layer a function of (e.g., a sum of) the outputs of the neurons in layerM; or(iv) another function of neuron outputs in multiple layers. another function of neuron outputs in multiple layers. How the synaptic strengths of all the connections are adjusted during the training of this neural net. This is a key design decision and is the subject of a great deal of research and discussion. There are a number of possible ways to do this: How the synaptic strengths of all the connections are adjusted during the training of this neural net. This is a key design decision and is the subject of a great deal of research and discussion. There are a number of possible ways to do this:(i)For each recognition trial, increment or decrement each synaptic strength by a (generally small) fixed amount so that the neural net's output more closely matches the correct answer. One way to do this is to try both incrementing and decrementing and see which has the more desirable effect. This can be time-consuming, so other methods exist for making local decisions on whether to increment or decrement each synaptic strength. For each recognition trial, increment or decrement each synaptic strength by a (generally small) fixed amount so that the neural net's output more closely matches the correct answer. One way to do this is to try both incrementing and decrementing and see which has the more desirable effect. Thi