The Singularity Is Near_ When Humans Transcend Biology Part 17

New lightweight yet ultrastrong nanomaterials (such as plastics combined with nanotubes, which are fifty times stronger than steel), as well as increased computer intelligence to counteract missile attacks, are expected to dramatically lower the weight of ground combat systems.

The trend toward unmanned aerial vehicles (DAVs), which started with the armed Predator in the recent Afghanistan and Iraq campaigns, will accelerate. Army research includes the development of micro-DAYs the size of birds that will be fast, accurate, and capable of performing both reconnaissance and combat missions. Even smaller DAVs the size of b.u.mblebees are envisioned. The navigational ability of an actual b.u.mblebee, which is based on a complex interaction between its left and right vision systems, has recently been reverse engineered and will be applied to these tiny flying machines.

At the center of the FCS is a self-organizing, highly distributed communications network capable of gathering information from each soldier and each piece of equipment and in turn providing the appropriate information displays and files back to each human and machine partic.i.p.ant. There will be no centralized communications hubs that could be vulnerable to hostile attack. Information will rapidly route itself around damaged portions of the network. An obvious top priority is to develop technology capable of maintaining integrity of communication and preventing either eavesdropping or manipulation of information by hostile forces. The same information-security technology will be applied to infiltrate, disrupt, confuse, or destroy enemy communications through both electronic means and cyberwarfare using software pathogens.

The FCS is not a one-shot program; it represents a pervasive focus of military systems toward remotely guided, autonomous, miniaturized, and robotic systems, combined with robust, self-organizing, distributed, and secure communications.

The U.S. Joint Forces Command's Project Alpha (responsible for accelerating transformative ideas throughout the armed services) envisions a 2025 fighting force that "is largely robotic," incorporating tactical autonomous combatants (TACs) that "have some level of autonomy-adjustable autonomy or supervised autonomy or full autonomy within . . . mission bounds."48 The TACs will be available in a wide range of sizes, ranging from nan.o.bots and microbots up to large UAVs and other vehicles, as well as automated systems that can walk through complex terrains. One innovative design being developed by NASA with military applications envisioned is in the form of a snake. The TACs will be available in a wide range of sizes, ranging from nan.o.bots and microbots up to large UAVs and other vehicles, as well as automated systems that can walk through complex terrains. One innovative design being developed by NASA with military applications envisioned is in the form of a snake.49 One of the programs contributing to the 2020s concept of self-organizing swarms of small robots is the Autonomous Intelligent Network and Systems (AINS) program of the Office of Naval Research, which envisions a drone army of unmanned, autonomous robots in the water, on the ground, and in the air. The swarms will have human commanders with decentralized command and control and what project head Allen Moshfegh calls an "impregnable Internet in the sky."50 Extensive research is going into designing swarm intelligence.51 Swarm intelligence describes the way that complex behaviors can arise from large numbers of individual agents, each following relatively simple rules. Swarm intelligence describes the way that complex behaviors can arise from large numbers of individual agents, each following relatively simple rules.52 Swarms of insects are often able to devise intelligent solutions to complex problems, such as designing the architecture of a colony, despite the fact that no single member of the swarm possesses the requisite skills. Swarms of insects are often able to devise intelligent solutions to complex problems, such as designing the architecture of a colony, despite the fact that no single member of the swarm possesses the requisite skills.

DARPA announced in 2003 that a battalion of 120 military robots (built by I-Robot, a company cofounded by robotics pioneer Rodney Brooks) was to be fitted with swarm-intelligence software to enable it to mimic the organized behavior of insects.53 As robotic systems become physically smaller and larger in number, the principles of self-organizing swarm intelligence will play an increasingly important role. As robotic systems become physically smaller and larger in number, the principles of self-organizing swarm intelligence will play an increasingly important role.

There is also recognition in the military that development times need to be reduced. Historically, the typical time period for military projects to go from research to deployment has been longer than a decade. But with the technology paradigm-shift rate coming down by half every decade, these development times need to keep pace, as many weapons systems are already obsolete by the time they reach the field. One way to accomplish this is to develop and test new weapons using simulations, which enable weapons systems to be designed, implemented, and tested far more quickly than the traditional means of building prototypes and testing them (often by blowing them up) in actual use.

Another key trend is to move personnel away from combat to improve soldiers' rates of survival. This can be done by allowing humans to drive and pilot systems remotely. Taking the pilot out of a vehicle allows it to take part in riskier missions and to be designed to be far more maneuverable. It also allows the devices to become very small by dispensing with the extensive requirements for supporting human life. The generals are moving even farther away. Tommy Franks conducted the war in Afghanistan from his bunker in Qatar.

Smart Dust. DARPA is developing devices even tinier than birds and b.u.mblebees called "smart dust"-complex sensor systems not much bigger than a pinhead. Once fully developed, swarms of millions of these devices could be dropped into enemy territory to provide highly detailed surveillance and ultimately support offensive warfare missions (for example, releasing nanoweapons). Power for smart-dust systems will be provided by nanoengineered fuel cells, as well as by conversion of mechanical energy from their own movement, wind, and thermal currents. DARPA is developing devices even tinier than birds and b.u.mblebees called "smart dust"-complex sensor systems not much bigger than a pinhead. Once fully developed, swarms of millions of these devices could be dropped into enemy territory to provide highly detailed surveillance and ultimately support offensive warfare missions (for example, releasing nanoweapons). Power for smart-dust systems will be provided by nanoengineered fuel cells, as well as by conversion of mechanical energy from their own movement, wind, and thermal currents.

Want to find a key enemy? Need to locate hidden weapons? Ma.s.sive numbers of essentially invisible spies could monitor every square inch of enemy territory, identify every person (through thermal and electromagnetic imaging, eventually DNA tests, and other means) and every weapon and even carry out missions to destroy enemy targets.

Nanoweapons. The next step beyond smart dust will be nanotechnology-based weapons, which will make obsolete weapons of larger size. The only way for an enemy to counteract such a ma.s.sively distributed force will be with its own nanotechnology. In addition, enhancing nanodevices with the ability to self-replicate will extend their capabilities but introduces grave dangers, a subject I address in chapter 8. The next step beyond smart dust will be nanotechnology-based weapons, which will make obsolete weapons of larger size. The only way for an enemy to counteract such a ma.s.sively distributed force will be with its own nanotechnology. In addition, enhancing nanodevices with the ability to self-replicate will extend their capabilities but introduces grave dangers, a subject I address in chapter 8.

Nanotechnology is already being applied to a wide range of military functions. These include nanotech coatings for improved armor; laboratories on a chip for rapid chemical and biological-agent detection and identification; nanoscale catalysts for decontaminating areas; smart materials that can restructure themselves for different situations; biocidal nanoparticles incorporated into uniforms to reduce infection from injuries; nanotubes combined with plastics to create extremely strong materials; and self-healing materials. For example, the University of Illinois has developed self-healing plastics that incorporate microspheres of liquid monomers and a catalyst into a plastic matrix; when a crack appears, the microspheres break, automatically sealing the crack.54

Smart Weapons. We've already moved from dumb missiles launched with hopes they will find their targets to intelligent cruise missiles that use pattern recognition to make thousands of tactical decisions on their own. Bullets, however, have remained essentially small dumb missiles, and providing them with a measure of intelligence is another military objective. We've already moved from dumb missiles launched with hopes they will find their targets to intelligent cruise missiles that use pattern recognition to make thousands of tactical decisions on their own. Bullets, however, have remained essentially small dumb missiles, and providing them with a measure of intelligence is another military objective.

As military weapons become smaller in size and larger in number, it won't be desirable or feasible to maintain human control over each device. So increasing the level of autonomous control is another important goal. Once machine intelligence catches up with biological human intelligence, many more systems will be fully autonomous.

VR. Virtual-reality environments are already in use to control remotely guided systems such as the U.S. Air Force's Armed Predator UAV. Virtual-reality environments are already in use to control remotely guided systems such as the U.S. Air Force's Armed Predator UAV.55 Even if a soldier is inside a weapons system (such as an Abrams tank), we don't expect him or her to just look outside the window to see what is going on. Virtual-reality environments are needed to provide a view of the actual environment and allow for effective control. Human commanders in charge of swarm weapons will also need specialized virtual-reality environments to envision the complex information that these distributed systems are collecting. Even if a soldier is inside a weapons system (such as an Abrams tank), we don't expect him or her to just look outside the window to see what is going on. Virtual-reality environments are needed to provide a view of the actual environment and allow for effective control. Human commanders in charge of swarm weapons will also need specialized virtual-reality environments to envision the complex information that these distributed systems are collecting.

By the late 2030s and 2040s, as we approach human body version 3.0 and the predominance of nonbiological intelligence, the issue of cyberwarfare will move to center stage. When everything is information, the ability to control your own information and disrupt your enemy's communication, command, and control will be a primary determinant of military success.

. . . on Learning

Science is organized knowledge. Wisdom is organized life.-IMMANUEL KANT (17241804)

Most education in the world today, including in the wealthier communities, is not much changed from the model offered by the monastic schools of fourteenth-century Europe. Schools remain highly centralized inst.i.tutions built upon the scarce resources of buildings and teachers. The quality of education also varies enormously, depending on the wealth of the local community (the American tradition of funding education from property taxes clearly exacerbates this inequality), thus contributing to the have/have not divide.

As with all of our other inst.i.tutions we will ultimately move toward a decentralized educational system in which every person will have ready access to the highest-quality knowledge and instruction. We are now in the early stages of this transformation, but already the advent of the availability of vast knowledge on the Web, useful search engines, high-quality open Web courseware, and increasingly effective computer-a.s.sisted instruction are providing widespread and inexpensive access to education.

Most major universities now provide extensive courses online, many of which are free. MIT's OpenCourseWare (OCW) initiative has been a leader in this effort. MIT offers nine hundred of its courses-half of all its course offerings-for free on the Web.56 These have already had a major impact on education around the world. For example, Brigitte Bouissou writes, "As a math teacher in France, I want to thank MIT ... for [these] very lucid lectures, which are a great help for preparing my own cla.s.ses." Sajid Latif, an educator in Pakistan, has integrated the MIT OCW courses into his own curriculum. His Pakistani students regularly attend virtually-MIT cla.s.ses as a substantial part of their education. These have already had a major impact on education around the world. For example, Brigitte Bouissou writes, "As a math teacher in France, I want to thank MIT ... for [these] very lucid lectures, which are a great help for preparing my own cla.s.ses." Sajid Latif, an educator in Pakistan, has integrated the MIT OCW courses into his own curriculum. His Pakistani students regularly attend virtually-MIT cla.s.ses as a substantial part of their education.57 MIT intends to have everyone of its courses online and open source (that is, free of charge for noncommercial use) by 2007. MIT intends to have everyone of its courses online and open source (that is, free of charge for noncommercial use) by 2007.

The U.S. Army already conducts all of its nonphysical training using Web-based instruction. The accessible, inexpensive, and increasingly high-quality courseware available on the Web is also fueling a trend toward homeschooling.

The cost of the infrastructure for high-quality audiovisual Internet-based communication is continuing to fall rapidly, at a rate of about 50 percent per year, as we discussed in chapter 2. By the end of the decade it will be feasible for underdeveloped regions of the world to provide very inexpensive access to high-quality instruction for all grade levels from preschool to doctoral studies. Access to education will no longer be restricted by the lack of availability of trained teachers in each town and village.

As computer-a.s.sisted instruction (CAl) becomes more intelligent the ability to individualize the learning experience for each student will greatly improve. New generations of educational software are capable of modeling the strengths and weaknesses of each student and developing strategies to focus on the problem area of each learner. A company that I founded, Kurzweil Educational Systems, provides software that is used in tens of thousands of schools by students with reading disabilities to access ordinary printed materials and improve their reading skills.58 Because of current bandwidth limitations and the lack of effective three-dimensional displays, the virtual environment provided today through routine Web access does not yet fully compete with "being there," but that will change. In the early part of the second decade of this century visual-auditory virtual-reality environments will be full immersion, very high resolution, and very convincing. Most colleges will follow MIT's lead, and students will increasingly attend cla.s.ses virtually. Virtual environments will provide high-quality virtual laboratories where experiments can be conducted in chemistry, nuclear physics, or any other scientific field. Students will be able to interact with a virtual Thomas Jefferson or Thomas Edison or even to become become a virtual Thomas Jefferson. Cla.s.ses will be available for all grade levels in many languages. The devices needed to enter these high-quality, high-resolution virtual cla.s.srooms will be ubiquitous and affordable even in third world countries. Students at any age, from toddlers to adults, will be able to access the best education in the world at any time and from any place. a virtual Thomas Jefferson. Cla.s.ses will be available for all grade levels in many languages. The devices needed to enter these high-quality, high-resolution virtual cla.s.srooms will be ubiquitous and affordable even in third world countries. Students at any age, from toddlers to adults, will be able to access the best education in the world at any time and from any place.

The nature of education will change once again when we merge with nonbiological intelligence. We will then have the ability to download knowledge and skills, at least into the nonbiological portion of our intelligence. Our machines do this routinely today. If you want to give your laptop state-of-the-art skills in speech or character recognition, language translation, or Internet searching, your computer has only to quickly download the right patterns (the software). We don't yet have comparable communication ports in our biological brains to quickly download the interneuronal connection and neurotransmitter patterns that represent our learning. That is one of many profound limitations of the biological paradigm we now use for our thinking, a limitation we will overcome in the Singularity.

. . . on Work

If every instrument could accomplish its own work, obeying or antic.i.p.ating the will of others, if the shuttle could weave, and the pick touch the lyre, without a hand to guide them, chief workmen would not need servants, nor masters slaves.-ARISTOTLE Before the invention of writing, almost every insight was happening for the first time (at least to the knowledge of the small groups of humans involved). When you are at the beginning, everything is new. In our era, almost everything we do in the arts is done with awareness of what has been done before and before. In the early post-human era, things will be new again because anything that requires greater than human ability has not already been done by Homer or da Vinci or Shakespeare.-VERNOR VINGE59 Now part of [my consciousness] lives on the Internet and seems to stay there all the time....A student may have a textbook open. The television is on with the sound off....They've got music on headphones ... there's a homework window, along with e-mail and instant messaging.... One multi-tasking student prefers the online world to the face-to-face world. "Real life," he said, "is just one more window."-CHRISTINE BOESE, REPORTING ON FINDINGS BY MIT PROFESSOR SHERRY TURKLE60

In 1651 Thomas Hobbes described "the life of man" as "solitary, poor, nasty, brutish, and short."61 This was a fair a.s.sessment of life at the time, but we have largely overcome this harsh characterization through technological advances, at least in the developed world. Even in underdeveloped nations life expectancy lags only slightly behind. Technology typically starts out with unaffordable products that don't work very well, followed by expensive versions that work a bit better, and then by inexpensive products that work reasonably well. Finally the technology becomes highly effective, ubiquitous, and almost free. Radio and television followed this pattern, as did the cell phone. Contemporary Web access is at the inexpensive-and-working-reasonably-well stage. This was a fair a.s.sessment of life at the time, but we have largely overcome this harsh characterization through technological advances, at least in the developed world. Even in underdeveloped nations life expectancy lags only slightly behind. Technology typically starts out with unaffordable products that don't work very well, followed by expensive versions that work a bit better, and then by inexpensive products that work reasonably well. Finally the technology becomes highly effective, ubiquitous, and almost free. Radio and television followed this pattern, as did the cell phone. Contemporary Web access is at the inexpensive-and-working-reasonably-well stage.

Today the delay between early and late adoption is about a decade, but in keeping with the doubling of the paradigm-shift rate every decade, this delay will be only about five years in the middle of the second decade and only a couple of years in the mid-2020s. Given the enormous wealth-creation potential of GNR technologies, we will see the undercIa.s.s largely disappear over the next two to three decades (see the discussions of the 2004 World Bank report in chapters 2 and 9). These developments are likely to be met, however, with increasing fundamentalist and Luddite reaction to the accelerating pace of change.

With the advent of MNT-based manufacturing, the cost of making any physical product will be reduced to pennies per pound, plus the cost of the information guiding the process, with the latter representing the true value. We are already not that far from this reality; software-based processes guide every step of manufacturing today, from design and materials procurement to a.s.sembly in automated factories. The portion of a manufactured product's cost attributable to the information processes used in its creation varies from one category of product to another but is increasing across the board, rapidly approaching 100 percent. By the late 2020s the value of virtually all products-clothes, food, energy, and of course electronics-will be almost entirely in their information. As is the case today, proprietary and open-source versions of every type of product and service will coexist.

Intellectual Property. If the primary value of products and services resides in their information, then the protection of information rights will be critical to supporting the business models that provide the capital to fund the creation of valuable information. The skirmishes today in the entertainment industry regarding illegal downloading of music and movies are a harbinger of what will be a profound struggle, once essentially everything of value is composed of information. Clearly, existing or new business models that allow for the creation of valuable intellectual property (IP) need to be protected, otherwise the supply of IP will itself be threatened. However, the pressure from the ease of copying information is a reality that is not going away, so industries will suffer if they do not keep their business models in line with public expectations. If the primary value of products and services resides in their information, then the protection of information rights will be critical to supporting the business models that provide the capital to fund the creation of valuable information. The skirmishes today in the entertainment industry regarding illegal downloading of music and movies are a harbinger of what will be a profound struggle, once essentially everything of value is composed of information. Clearly, existing or new business models that allow for the creation of valuable intellectual property (IP) need to be protected, otherwise the supply of IP will itself be threatened. However, the pressure from the ease of copying information is a reality that is not going away, so industries will suffer if they do not keep their business models in line with public expectations.

In music, for example, rather than provide leadership with new paradigms, the recording industry stuck rigidly (until just recently) with the idea of an expensive record alb.u.m, a business model that has remained unchanged from the time my father was a young, struggling musician in the 1940s. The public will avoid wide-scale pirating of information services only if commercial prices are kept at what are perceived to be reasonable levels. The mobile-phone sector is a prime example of an industry that has not invited rampant piracy. The cost of cell-phone calls has fallen rapidly with improving technology. If the mobile-phone industry had kept calling rates at the level where they were when I was a child (a time when people dropped whatever they were doing at the rare times that someone called long distance), we would be seeing comparable pirating of cell-phone calls, which is technically no more difficult than pirating music. But cheating on cell-phone calls is widely regarded as criminal behavior, largely because of the general perception that cell-phone charges are appropriate.

IP business models invariably exist on the edge of change. Movies have been difficult to download because of their large file size, but that is rapidly becoming less of an issue. The movie industry needs to lead the charge toward new standards, such as high-definition movies on demand. Musicians typically make most of their money with live performances, but that model will also come under attack early in the next decade, when we will have full-immersion virtual reality. Each industry will need to continually reinvent its business models, which will require as much creativity as the creation of the IP itself.

The first industrial revolution extended the reach of our bodies, and the second is extending the reach of our minds. As I mentioned, employment in factories and farms has gone from 60 percent to 6 percent in the United States in the past century. Over the next couple of decades, virtually all routine physical and mental work will be automated. Computation and communication will not involve discrete products such as handheld devices but will be a seamless web of intelligent resources that are all around us. Already most contemporary work is involved in the creation and promotion of IP in one form or another, as well as direct personal services from one person to another (health, fitness, education, and so on). These trends will continue with the creation of IP-including all of our artistic, social, and scientific creativity-and will be greatly enhanced by the expansion of our intellect through the merger with nonbiological intelligence. Personal services will largely move to virtual-reality environments, especially when virtual reality begins to encompa.s.s all of the senses.

Decentralization. The next several decades will see a major trend toward decentralization. Today we have highly centralized and vulnerable energy plants and use ships and fuel lines to transport energy. The advent of nanoengineered fuel cells and solar power will enable energy resources to be ma.s.sively distributed and integrated into our infrastructure. MNT manufacturing will be highly distributed using inexpensive nanofabrication minifactories. The ability to do nearly anything with anyone from anywhere in any virtual-reality environment will make obsolete the centralized technologies of office buildings and cities. The next several decades will see a major trend toward decentralization. Today we have highly centralized and vulnerable energy plants and use ships and fuel lines to transport energy. The advent of nanoengineered fuel cells and solar power will enable energy resources to be ma.s.sively distributed and integrated into our infrastructure. MNT manufacturing will be highly distributed using inexpensive nanofabrication minifactories. The ability to do nearly anything with anyone from anywhere in any virtual-reality environment will make obsolete the centralized technologies of office buildings and cities.

With version 3.0 bodies able to morph into different forms at will and our largely nonbiological brains no longer constrained to the limited architecture that biology has bestowed on us, the question of what is human will undergo intensive examination. Each transformation described here does not represent a sudden leap but rather a sequence of many small steps. Although the speed with which these steps are being taken is hastening, mainstream acceptance generally follows rapidly. Consider new reproductive technologies such as in vitro fertilization, which were controversial at first but quickly became widely used and accepted. On the other hand, change will always produce fundamentalist and Luddite counteractions, which will intensify as the pace of change increases. But despite apparent controversy, the overwhelming benefits to human health, wealth, expression, creativity, and knowledge quickly become apparent.

. . . on Play

Technology is a way of organizing the universe so that people don't have to experience it.-MAX FRISCH, h.o.m.o FABER h.o.m.o FABER Life is either a daring adventure or nothing.-HELEN KELLER

Play is just another version of work and has an integral role in the human creation of knowledge in all of its forms. A child playing with dolls and blocks is acquiring knowledge essentially by creating it through his or her own experience. People playing with dance moves are engaged in a collaborative creative process (consider the kids on street comers in the nation's poorest neighborhoods who created break dancing, which launched the hip-hop movement). Einstein put aside his work for the Swiss patent office and engaged in playful mind experiments, resulting in the creation of his enduring theories of special and general relativity. If war is the father of invention, then play is its mother.

Already there is no clear distinction between increasingly sophisticated video games and educational software. The Sims 2 The Sims 2, a game released in September 2004, uses AI-based characters that have their own motivations and intentions. With no prepared scripts the characters behave in unpredictable ways, with the story line emerging out of their interactions. Although considered a game, it offers players insights into developing social awareness. Similarly games that simulate sports with increasingly realistic play impart skills and understanding.

By the 2020s, full-immersion virtual reality will be a vast playground of compelling environments and experiences. Initially VR will have certain benefits in terms of enabling communications with others in engaging ways over long distances and featuring a great variety of environments from which to choose. Although the environments will not be completely convincing at first, by the late 2020s they will be indistinguishable from real reality and will involve all of the senses, as well as neurological correlations of our emotions. As we enter the 2030s there won't be clear distinctions between human and machine, between real and virtual reality, or between work and play.

. . . on the Intelligent Destiny of the Cosmos: Why We Are Probably Alone in the Universe

The universe is not only queerer than we suppose, but queerer than we can suppose.-J. B. S. HALDANE What is the universe doing questioning itself via one of its smallest products?-D. E. JENKINS, ANGLICAN THEOLOGIAN What is the universe computing? As far as we can tell, it is not producing a single answer to a single question....Instead the universe is computing itself. Powered by Standard Model software, the universe computes quantum fields, chemicals, bacteria, human beings, stars, and galaxies. As it computes, it maps out its own s.p.a.cetime geometry to the ultimate precision allowed by the laws of physics. Computation is existence.-SETH LLOYD AND Y. JACK NG62

Our naive view of the cosmos, dating back to pre-Copernican days, was that the Earth was at the center of the universe and human intelligence its greatest gift (next to G.o.d). The more informed recent view is that, even if the likelihood of a star's having a planet with a technology-creating species is very low (for example, one in a million), there are so many stars (that is, billions of trillions of them), that there are bound to be many (billions or trillions) with advanced technology.

This is the view behind SETI-the Search for Extraterrestrial Intelligence-and is the common informed view today. However, there are reasons to doubt the "SETI a.s.sumption" that ETI is prevalent.

First, consider the common SETI view. Common interpretations of the Drake equation (see below) conclude that there are many (as in billions) of ETls in the universe, thousands or millions in our galaxy. We have only examined a tiny portion of the haystack (the universe), so our failure to date to find the needle (an ETI signal) should not be considered discouraging. Our efforts to explore the haystack are scaling up.

The following diagram from Sky & Telescope Sky & Telescope ill.u.s.trates the scope of the SETI project by plotting the capability of the varied scanning efforts against three major parameters: distance from Earth, frequency of transmission, and the fraction of the sky. ill.u.s.trates the scope of the SETI project by plotting the capability of the varied scanning efforts against three major parameters: distance from Earth, frequency of transmission, and the fraction of the sky.63 The plot includes two future systems. The Allen Telescope Array, named after Microsoft cofounder Paul Allen, is based on using many small scanning dishes rather than one or a small number of large dishes, with thirty-two of the dishes scheduled to be online in 2005.When all of its 350 dishes are operational (projected in 2008), it will be equivalent to a 2-acre dish (10,000 square meters). It will be capable of listening to up to 100 million frequency channels simultaneously, and able to cover the entire microwave spectrum. One of its intended tasks will be to scan millions of stars in our galaxy. The project relies on intelligent computation that can extract highly accurate signals from many low-cost dishes.64 Ohio State University is building the Omnidirectional Search System, which relies on intelligent computation to interpret signals from a large array of simple antennas. Using principles of interferometry (the study of how signals interfere with each other), a high-resolution image of the entire sky can be computed from the antenna data.65 Other projects are expanding the range of electromagnetic frequency, for example, to explore the infrared and optical ranges. Other projects are expanding the range of electromagnetic frequency, for example, to explore the infrared and optical ranges.66 There are six other parameters in addition to the three shown in the chart on the previous page-for example, polarization (the plane of the wavefront in relation to the direction of the electromagnetic waves). One of the conclusions we can draw from the above graph is that only very thin slices of this nine-dimensional "parameter s.p.a.ce" have been explored by SETI. So, the reasoning goes, we should not be surprised that we have not yet uncovered evidence of an ETI.

However, we are not just searching for a single needle. Based on the law of accelerating returns, once an ETI reaches primitive mechanical technologies, it is only a few centuries before it reaches the vast capabilities I've projected for the twenty-second century here on Earth. Russian astronomer N. S. Kardashev describes a "type II" civilization as one that has harnessed the power of its star for communication using electromagnetic radiation (about 4 i 1026 watts, based on our sun). watts, based on our sun).67 According to my projections (see chapter 3), our civilization will reach that level by the twenty-second century. Given that the level of technological development of the many civilizations projected by many SETI theorists should be spread out over vast periods of time, there should be many greatly ahead of us. So there should be many type II civilizations. Indeed, there has been sufficient time for some of these civilizations to have colonized their galaxies and achieve Kardashev's type III: a civilization that has harnessed the energy of its galaxy (about 4 i 10 According to my projections (see chapter 3), our civilization will reach that level by the twenty-second century. Given that the level of technological development of the many civilizations projected by many SETI theorists should be spread out over vast periods of time, there should be many greatly ahead of us. So there should be many type II civilizations. Indeed, there has been sufficient time for some of these civilizations to have colonized their galaxies and achieve Kardashev's type III: a civilization that has harnessed the energy of its galaxy (about 4 i 1037 watts, based on our galaxy). Even a single advanced civilization should be emitting billions or trillions of "needles"-that is, transmissions representing a vast number of points in the SETI parameter s.p.a.ce as artifacts and side effects of its myriad information processes. Even with the thin slices of the parameter s.p.a.ce scanned by the SETI project to date, it would be hard to miss a type II civilization, let alone a type III. If we then factor in the expectation that there should be a vast number of these advanced civilizations, it is odd that we haven't noticed them. That's the Fermi Paradox. watts, based on our galaxy). Even a single advanced civilization should be emitting billions or trillions of "needles"-that is, transmissions representing a vast number of points in the SETI parameter s.p.a.ce as artifacts and side effects of its myriad information processes. Even with the thin slices of the parameter s.p.a.ce scanned by the SETI project to date, it would be hard to miss a type II civilization, let alone a type III. If we then factor in the expectation that there should be a vast number of these advanced civilizations, it is odd that we haven't noticed them. That's the Fermi Paradox.

The Drake Equation. The SETI search has been motivated in large part by astronomer Frank Drake's 1961 equation for estimating the number of intelligent (or, more precisely, radio-transmitting) civilizations in our galaxy. The SETI search has been motivated in large part by astronomer Frank Drake's 1961 equation for estimating the number of intelligent (or, more precisely, radio-transmitting) civilizations in our galaxy.68 (Presumably, the same a.n.a.lysis would pertain to other galaxies.) Consider the SETI a.s.sumption from the perspective of the Drake formula, which states: (Presumably, the same a.n.a.lysis would pertain to other galaxies.) Consider the SETI a.s.sumption from the perspective of the Drake formula, which states:

The number of radio-transmitting civilizations = N ifp i ine i ifl i ifi i ifc i ifL where: N = the number of stars in the Milky Way galaxy. Current estimates are around 100 billion (1011).fp = the fraction of stars that have orbiting planets. Current estimates range from about 20 percent to 50 percent. = the fraction of stars that have orbiting planets. Current estimates range from about 20 percent to 50 percent.ne: For each star with orbiting planets, what is the average number of planets capable of sustaining life? This factor is highly controversial. Some estimates are one or higher (that is, every star with planets has, on average, at least one planet that can sustain life) to much lower factors, such as one in one thousand or even less.fl: For the planets capable capable of sustaining life, on what fraction of these does life actually evolve? Estimates are allover the map, from approximately 100 percent to about 0 percent. of sustaining life, on what fraction of these does life actually evolve? Estimates are allover the map, from approximately 100 percent to about 0 percent. fi: For each planet on which life evolves, what is the fraction on which intelligent life evolves? f fl and and f fi are the most controversial factors in the Drake equation. Here again, estimates range from nearly 100 percent (that is, once life gets a foothold, intelligent life is sure to follow) to close to 0 percent (that is, intelligent life is very rare). are the most controversial factors in the Drake equation. Here again, estimates range from nearly 100 percent (that is, once life gets a foothold, intelligent life is sure to follow) to close to 0 percent (that is, intelligent life is very rare). fc: For each planet with intelligent life, what is the fraction that communicates with radio waves? The estimates for f fc tend to be higher than for tend to be higher than for f fl and and f fi, based on the (sensible) reasoning that once you have an intelligent species, the discovery and use of radio communication is likely. f = the fraction of the universe's life during which an average communicating civilization communicates with radio waves. = the fraction of the universe's life during which an average communicating civilization communicates with radio waves.69 If we take our civilization as an example, we have been communicating with radio transmissions for about one hundred years out of the roughly ten- to twenty-billion-year history of the universe, so If we take our civilization as an example, we have been communicating with radio transmissions for about one hundred years out of the roughly ten- to twenty-billion-year history of the universe, so f fL for the Earth is about 10 for the Earth is about 108 so far. If we continue communicating with radio waves for, say, another nine hundred years, the factor would then be 10 so far. If we continue communicating with radio waves for, say, another nine hundred years, the factor would then be 107. This factor is affected by a number of considerations. If a civilization destroys itself because it is unable to handle the destructive power of technologies that may tend to develop along with radio communication (such as nuclear fusion or self-replicating nanotechnology), then radio transmissions would cease. We have seen civilizations on Earth (the Mayans, for example) suddenly end their organized societies and scientific pursuits (although preradio). On the other hand it seems unlikely that every civilization would end this way, so sudden destruction is likely to be only a modest factor in reducing the number of radio-capable civilizations.

A more salient issue is that of civilizations progressing from electromagnetic (that is, radio) transmissions to more capable means of communicating. Here on Earth we are rapidly moving from radio transmissions to wires, using cable and fiber optics for long-distance communication. So despite enormous increases in overall communication bandwidth, the amount of electromagnetic information sent into s.p.a.ce from our planet has nevertheless remained fairly steady for the past decade. On the other hand we do have increasing means of wireless communication (for example, cell phones and new wireless Internet protocols, such as the emerging WiMAX standard). Rather than use wires, communication may rely on exotic mediums such as gravity waves. However, even in this case, although the electromagnetic means of communication may no longer be the cutting edge of an ETl's communication technology, it is likely to continue to be used for at least some applications (in any case, fL does take into consideration the possibility that a civilization would stop such transmissions). does take into consideration the possibility that a civilization would stop such transmissions).

It is clear that the Drake equation contains many imponderables. Many SETI advocates who have studied it carefully argue that it implies that there must be significant numbers of radio-transmitting civilizations in our galaxy alone. For example, if we a.s.sume that 50 percent of the stars have planets (fp = 0.5), that each of these stars has an average of two planets able to sustain life ( = 0.5), that each of these stars has an average of two planets able to sustain life (ne = 2), that on half of these planets life has actually evolved ( = 2), that on half of these planets life has actually evolved (fl = 0.5), that half of these planets has evolved intelligent life ( = 0.5), that half of these planets has evolved intelligent life (fi = 0.5), that half of these are radio-capable ( = 0.5), that half of these are radio-capable (fc = 0.5), and that the average radio-capable civilization has been broadcasting for one million years ( = 0.5), and that the average radio-capable civilization has been broadcasting for one million years (fL = 10 = 104), the Drake equation tells us that there are 1,250,000 radio-capable civilizations in our galaxy. For example, the SETI Inst.i.tute's senior astronomer, Seth Shostak, estimates that there are between ten thousand and one million planets in the Milky Way containing a radio-broadcasting civilization.70 Carl Sagan estimated around a million in the galaxy, and Drake estimated around ten thousand. Carl Sagan estimated around a million in the galaxy, and Drake estimated around ten thousand.71 But the parameters above are arguably very high. If we make more conservative a.s.sumptions on the difficulty of evolving life-and intelligent life in particular-we get a very different outcome. If we a.s.sume that 50 percent of the stars have planets (fp = 0.5), that only one tenth of these stars have planets able to sustain life ( = 0.5), that only one tenth of these stars have planets able to sustain life (ne = 0.1 based on the observation that life-supporting conditions are not that prevalent), that on 1 percent of these planets life has actually evolved ( = 0.1 based on the observation that life-supporting conditions are not that prevalent), that on 1 percent of these planets life has actually evolved (fl = 0.01 based on the difficulty of life starting on a planet), that 5 percent of these life-evolving planets have evolved intelligent life ( = 0.01 based on the difficulty of life starting on a planet), that 5 percent of these life-evolving planets have evolved intelligent life (fi = 0.05, based on the very long period of time this took on Earth), that half of these are radio-capable ( = 0.05, based on the very long period of time this took on Earth), that half of these are radio-capable (fc = 0.5), and that the average radio-capable civilization has been broadcasting for ten thousand years ( = 0.5), and that the average radio-capable civilization has been broadcasting for ten thousand years (fL = 10 = 106), the Drake equation tells us that there is about one (1.25 to be exact) radio-capable civilization in the Milky Way. And we already know of one.

In the end, it is difficult to make a strong argument for or against ETI based on this equation. If the Drake formula tells us anything, it is the extreme uncertainty of our estimates. What we do know for now, however, is that the cosmos appears silent-that is, we've detected no convincing evidence of ETI transmissions. The a.s.sumption behind SETI is that life-and intelligent life-is so prevalent that there must be millions if not billions of radio-capable civilizations in the universe (or at least within our light sphere, which refers to radio-broadcasting civilizations that were sending out radio waves early enough to reach Earth by today). Not a single one of them, however, has made itself noticeable to our SETI efforts thus far. So let's consider the basic SETI a.s.sumption regarding the number of radio-capable civilizations from the perspective of the law of accelerating returns. As we have discussed, an evolutionary process inherently accelerates. Moreover, the evolution of technology is far faster than the relatively slow evolutionary process that gives rise to a technology-creating species in the first place. In our own case we went from a pre-electricity, computerless society that used horses as its fastest land-based transportation to the sophisticated computational and communications technologies we have today in only two hundred years. My projections show, as noted above, that within another century we will multiply our intelligence by trillions of trillions. So only three hundred years will have been necessary to take us from the early stirrings of primitive mechanical technologies to a vast expansion of our intelligence and ability to communicate. Thus, once a species creates electronics and sufficiently advanced technology to beam radio transmissions, it is only a matter of a modest number of centuries for it to vastly expand the powers of its intelligence.

The three centuries this will have taken on Earth is an extremely brief period of time on a cosmological scale, given that the age of the universe is estimated at thirteen to fourteen billion years.72 My model implies that once a 348 civilization achieves our own level of radio transmission, it takes no more than a century-two at the most-to achieve a type II civilization. If we accept the underlying SETI a.s.sumption that there are many thousands if not millions of radio-capable civilizations in our galaxy-and therefore billions within our light sphere in the universe-these civilizations must exist in different stages over billions of years of development. Some would be behind us, and some would be ahead. It is not credible that every single one of the civilizations that are more advanced than us is going to be only a few decades ahead. Most of those that are ahead of us would be ahead by millions, if not billions, of years. My model implies that once a 348 civilization achieves our own level of radio transmission, it takes no more than a century-two at the most-to achieve a type II civilization. If we accept the underlying SETI a.s.sumption that there are many thousands if not millions of radio-capable civilizations in our galaxy-and therefore billions within our light sphere in the universe-these civilizations must exist in different stages over billions of years of development. Some would be behind us, and some would be ahead. It is not credible that every single one of the civilizations that are more advanced than us is going to be only a few decades ahead. Most of those that are ahead of us would be ahead by millions, if not billions, of years.

Yet since a period of only a few centuries is sufficient to progress from mechanical technology to the vast explosion of intelligence and communication of the Singularity, under the SETI a.s.sumption there should be billions of civilizations in our light sphere (thousands or millions in our galaxy) whose technology is ahead of ours to an unimaginable degree. In at least some discussions of the SETI project, we see the same kind of linear thinking that permeates every other field, a.s.sumptions that civilizations will reach our level of technology, and that technology will progress from that point very gradually for thousands if not millions of years. Yet the jump from the first stirrings of radio to powers that go beyond a mere type II civilization takes only a few hundred years. So the skies should be ablaze with intelligent transmissions.

Yet the skies are quiet. It is odd and intriguing that we find the cosmos so silent. As Enrico Fermi asked in the summer of 1950, "Where is everybody?"73 A sufficiently advanced civilization would not be likely to restrict its transmissions to subtle signals on obscure frequencies. Why are all the ETIs so shy? A sufficiently advanced civilization would not be likely to restrict its transmissions to subtle signals on obscure frequencies. Why are all the ETIs so shy?

There have been attempts to respond to the so-called Fermi Paradox (which, granted, is a paradox only if one accepts the optimistic parameters that most observers apply to the Drake equation). One common response is that a civilization may obliterate itself once it reaches radio capability. This explanation might be acceptable if we were talking about only a few such civilizations, but with the common SETI a.s.sumptions implying billions of them, it is not credible to believe that everyone of them destroyed itself.

Other arguments run along this same line. Perhaps "they" have decided not to disturb us (given how primitive we are) and are just watching us quietly (an ethical guideline that will be familiar to Star Trek Star Trek fans). Again, it is hard to believe that every such civilization out of the billions that should exist has made the same decision. Or, perhaps, they have moved on to more capable communication paradigms. I do believe that more capable communication methods than electromagnetic waves-even very high-frequency ones-are likely to be feasible and that an advanced civilization (such as we will become over the next century) is likely to discover and exploit them. But it is very unlikely that there would be absolutely no role left for electromagnetic waves, even as a by-product of other technological processes, in any of these many millions of civilizations. fans). Again, it is hard to believe that every such civilization out of the billions that should exist has made the same decision. Or, perhaps, they have moved on to more capable communication paradigms. I do believe that more capable communication methods than electromagnetic waves-even very high-frequency ones-are likely to be feasible and that an advanced civilization (such as we will become over the next century) is likely to discover and exploit them. But it is very unlikely that there would be absolutely no role left for electromagnetic waves, even as a by-product of other technological processes, in any of these many millions of civilizations.

Incidentally, this is not an argument against the value of the SETI project, which should have high priority, because the negative finding is no less important than a positive result.

The Limits of Computation Revisited. Let's consider some additional implications of the law of accelerating returns to intelligence in the cosmos. In chapter 3 I discussed the ultimate cold laptop and estimated the optimal computational capacity of a one-liter, one-kilogram computer at around 10 Let's consider some additional implications of the law of accelerating returns to intelligence in the cosmos. In chapter 3 I discussed the ultimate cold laptop and estimated the optimal computational capacity of a one-liter, one-kilogram computer at around 1042 cps, which is sufficient to perform the equivalent of ten thousand years of the thinking of ten billion human brains in ten microseconds. If we allow more intelligent management of energy and heat, the potential in one kilogram of matter to compute may be as high as 10 cps, which is sufficient to perform the equivalent of ten thousand years of the thinking of ten billion human brains in ten microseconds. If we allow more intelligent management of energy and heat, the potential in one kilogram of matter to compute may be as high as 1050 cps. cps.

The technical requirements to achieve computational capacities in this range are daunting, but as I pointed out, the appropriate mental experiment is to consider the vast engineering ability of a civilization with 1042 cps per kilogram, not the limited engineering ability of humans today. A civilization at 10 cps per kilogram, not the limited engineering ability of humans today. A civilization at 1042 cps is likely to figure out how to get to 10 cps is likely to figure out how to get to 1043 cps and then to 10 cps and then to 1044 and so on. (Indeed, we can make the same argument at each step to get to the next.) and so on. (Indeed, we can make the same argument at each step to get to the next.) Once civilization reaches these levels it is obviously not going to restrict its computation to one kilogram of matter, any more than we do so today. Let's consider what our civilization can accomplish with the ma.s.s and energy in our own vicinity. The Earth contains a ma.s.s of about 6 i 1024 kilograms. Jupiter has a ma.s.s of about 1.9 i 10 kilograms. Jupiter has a ma.s.s of about 1.9 i 1027 kilograms. If we ignore the hydrogen and helium, we have about 1.7 i 10 kilograms. If we ignore the hydrogen and helium, we have about 1.7 i 1026 kilograms of matter in the solar system, not including the sun (which ultimately is also fair game). The overall solar system, which is dominated by the sun, has a ma.s.s of about 2 i 10 kilograms of matter in the solar system, not including the sun (which ultimately is also fair game). The overall solar system, which is dominated by the sun, has a ma.s.s of about 2 i 1030 kilograms. As a crude upper-bound a.n.a.lysis, if we apply the ma.s.s in the solar system to our 10 kilograms. As a crude upper-bound a.n.a.lysis, if we apply the ma.s.s in the solar system to our 1050 estimate of the limit of computational capacity per kilogram of matter (based on the limits for nanocomputing), we get a limit of 10 estimate of the limit of computational capacity per kilogram of matter (based on the limits for nanocomputing), we get a limit of 1080 cps for computation in our "vicinity." cps for computation in our "vicinity."

Obviously, there are practical considerations that are likely to provide difficulty in reaching this kind of upper limit. But even if we devoted one twentieth of 1 percent (0.0005) of the matter of the solar system to computational and communication resources, we get capacities of 1069 cps for "cold" computing and 10 cps for "cold" computing and 1077 cps for "hot" computing. cps for "hot" computing.74 Engineering estimates have been made for computing at these scales that take into consideration complex design requirements such as energy usage, heat dissipation, internal communication speeds, the composition of matter in the solar system, and many other factors. These designs use reversible computing, but as I pointed out in chapter 3, we still need to consider the energy requirements for correcting errors and communicating results. In an a.n.a.lysis by computational neuroscientist Anders Sandberg, the computational capacity of an Earth-size computational "object" called Zeus was reviewed.75 The conceptual design of this "cold" computer, consisting of about 10 The conceptual design of this "cold" computer, consisting of about 1025 kilograms of carbon (about 1.8 times the ma.s.s of the Earth) in the form of diamondoid consists of 5 i 10 kilograms of carbon (about 1.8 times the ma.s.s of the Earth) in the form of diamondoid consists of 5 i 1037 computational nodes, each of which uses extensive parallel processing. Zeus provides an estimated peak of 10 computational nodes, each of which uses extensive parallel processing. Zeus provides an estimated peak of 1061 cps of computation or, if used for data storage, 10 cps of computation or, if used for data storage, 1047 bits. A primary limiting factor for the design is the number of bit erasures permitted (it allows up to 2.6 i 10 bits. A primary limiting factor for the design is the number of bit erasures permitted (it allows up to 2.6 i 1032 bit erasures per second), which are primarily used to correct errors from cosmic rays and quantum effects. bit erasures per second), which are primarily used to correct errors from cosmic rays and quantum effects.

In 1959 astrophysicist Freeman Dyson proposed a concept of curved sh.e.l.ls around a star as a way to provide both energy and habitats for an advanced civilization. One conception of the Dyson Sphere is quite literally a thin sphere around a star to gather energy.76 The civilization lives in the sphere, and gives off heat (infrared energy) outside the sphere (away from the star). Another (and more practical) version of the Dyson Sphere is a series of curved sh.e.l.ls, each of which blocks only a portion of the star's radiation. In this way Dyson Sh.e.l.ls can be designed to have no effect on existing planets, particularly those, like the Earth, that harbor an ecology that needs to be protected. The civilization lives in the sphere, and gives off heat (infrared energy) outside the sphere (away from the star). Another (and more practical) version of the Dyson Sphere is a series of curved sh.e.l.ls, each of which blocks only a portion of the star's radiation. In this way Dyson Sh.e.l.ls can be designed to have no effect on existing planets, particularly those, like the Earth, that harbor an ecology that needs to be protected.

Although Dyson proposed his concept as a means of providing vast amounts of s.p.a.ce and energy for an advanced biological biological civilization, it can also be used as the basis for star-scale computers. Such Dyson Sh.e.l.ls could orbit our sun without affecting the sunlight reaching the Earth. Dyson imagined intelligent biological creatures living in the sh.e.l.ls or spheres, but since civilization moves rapidly toward nonbiological intelligence once it discovers computation, there would be no reason to populate the sh.e.l.ls with biological humans. civilization, it can also be used as the basis for star-scale computers. Such Dyson Sh.e.l.ls could orbit our sun without affecting the sunlight reaching the Earth. Dyson imagined intelligent biological creatures living in the sh.e.l.ls or spheres, but since civilization moves rapidly toward nonbiological intelligence once it discovers computation, there would be no reason to populate the sh.e.l.ls with biological humans.