The Gamble_ General Petraeus and the American Military Adventure in Iraq Part 17

51 "kiss of death": Kilcullen's comment was made in a briefing t.i.tled "Counterinsurgency in Iraq: Theory and Practice, 2007." Kilcullen's comment was made in a briefing t.i.tled "Counterinsurgency in Iraq: Theory and Practice, 2007."

54 "deeply flawed in timing and resources": Cordesman's comment appears in his essay "Iraqi Force Development," distributed 27 November 2006. Cordesman's comment appears in his essay "Iraqi Force Development," distributed 27 November 2006.

54 "The strategy was a hope": From West's book From West's book Strongest Tribe, Strongest Tribe, (Random House, 2008). (Random House, 2008). 57 "You'd find dumped bodies": 57 "You'd find dumped bodies": From Maj. Voorhies's interview "Operational Leadership Experiences." From Maj. Voorhies's interview "Operational Leadership Experiences."

57 "We may need more resources": West and Cohen, "Our Only Hope," West and Cohen, "Our Only Hope," Wall Street Journal, Wall Street Journal, 8 January 2007. 8 January 2007.

58 "We had two bites of this apple": Most of the quotations from Gen. Keane in this book are from the hours of interviews I did with him, but this one is from the transcript of an interview he did with Most of the quotations from Gen. Keane in this book are from the hours of interviews I did with him, but this one is from the transcript of an interview he did with Frontline. Frontline.

59 "I don't believe we can continue": Senator Snowe was quoted in the Senator Snowe was quoted in the Washington Post, Washington Post, 20 October 2006. 20 October 2006.

59 A light in Ramadi: Much of this section is based on an interview with Col. MacFarland, as well as follow-up exchanges by e-mail, but a few of the quotations from him are from his official interview with the Contemporary Operations Study Team at the Army's Combat Studies Inst.i.tute, Fort Leavenworth, Kansas. Much of this section is based on an interview with Col. MacFarland, as well as follow-up exchanges by e-mail, but a few of the quotations from him are from his official interview with the Contemporary Operations Study Team at the Army's Combat Studies Inst.i.tute, Fort Leavenworth, Kansas.

62 "It was actually a very small number": Lt. Col. Negard was quoted in the Lt. Col. Negard was quoted in the Washington Post, Washington Post, 2 May 2006. 2 May 2006.

62 But Carter Malkasian: His observation is in his article "A Thin Blue Line in the Sand," DemocracyJournal. org, Summer 2007. His observation is in his article "A Thin Blue Line in the Sand," DemocracyJournal. org, Summer 2007.

63 "Today, there is no tribal sheikh": Qadir, as quoted in the Qadir, as quoted in the Washington Post, Washington Post, 20 May 2006. 20 May 2006.

67 "For all intents and purposes": Malkasian, "Thin Blue Line," quoted earlier in this chapter. Malkasian, "Thin Blue Line," quoted earlier in this chapter.

70 "Part of me died along": Gibbs's mother, Debbie Halstead, was quoted in the Gibbs's mother, Debbie Halstead, was quoted in the Winston-Salem Journal, Winston-Salem Journal, 9 December 2006. 9 December 2006.

70 "He was one of those people": Ivan Ryndych's comment appeared in Ivan Ryndych's comment appeared in Newsday, Newsday, 8 December 2006. 8 December 2006.

70 "Please don't portray this as a tragedy": Re McClung was quoted in the Re McClung was quoted in the Los Angeles Times, Los Angeles Times, 13 December 2006. 13 December 2006.

71 "Well, Grant, we've had the devil's own day": This anecdote, which appears in many histories of the Civil War, was originally told to by Gen. Sherman to a reporter for the This anecdote, which appears in many histories of the Civil War, was originally told to by Gen. Sherman to a reporter for the Washington Post Washington Post and then quoted in the and then quoted in the Army and Navy Journal, Army and Navy Journal, 30 December 1893, according to Jean Edward Smith's 30 December 1893, according to Jean Edward Smith's Grant Grant (Simon & Schuster, 2001). (Simon & Schuster, 2001).

72 "Sean had obviously done something extraordinarily important": The data in this paragraph, and earlier in this chapter, about the cooperation of Ramadi-area tribes is from a briefing, "Tribal Cooperation Jan 07," that was given to Petraeus when he visited Ramadi in February 2007. The data in this paragraph, and earlier in this chapter, about the cooperation of Ramadi-area tribes is from a briefing, "Tribal Cooperation Jan 07," that was given to Petraeus when he visited Ramadi in February 2007.

Chapter 3: Keane Takes Command.

75 "one of the nastiest campaigns": This appears in Sen. Webb's book A Time to Fight (Broadway, 2008). This appears in Sen. Webb's book A Time to Fight (Broadway, 2008).

76 "How's your boy?": The exchange between President Bush and Webb is based partly on an interview with Webb but mainly on an accounts in the The exchange between President Bush and Webb is based partly on an interview with Webb but mainly on an accounts in the Washington Post, Washington Post, 29 November 2006, and an article in 29 November 2006, and an article in The Washingtonian, The Washingtonian, February 2008. February 2008.

91 "We don't easily jump": Martin's comment is in his interview with the Contemporary Operations Studies Team, Combat Studies Inst.i.tute, Fort Leavenworth, Kansas. Martin's comment is in his interview with the Contemporary Operations Studies Team, Combat Studies Inst.i.tute, Fort Leavenworth, Kansas.

92 "It's important to trust the judgment of the military": President Bush's interview with the Washington Post was quoted in the newspaper on 20 December 2006. President Bush's interview with the Washington Post was quoted in the newspaper on 20 December 2006.

93 "I am not persuaded": Powell appeared on Powell appeared on Face the Nation, Face the Nation, 17 December 2006. 17 December 2006.

94 "Without additional combat forces": Senator McCain's comment was quoted in the Senator McCain's comment was quoted in the Washington Post, Washington Post, 17 November 2006. 17 November 2006.

98 President Bush hit a new low in his ratings: The data here is from the The data here is from the Washington Post Washington Post-ABC News Poll, posted by the Post, Post, 12 December 2006. 12 December 2006.

99 "there was not enough civilian partic.i.p.ation": From Kinnard's From Kinnard's The War Managers: American Generals Reflect on Vietnam The War Managers: American Generals Reflect on Vietnam (Da Capo, 1991). (Da Capo, 1991).

103 "We are losing": The conclusions of the "council of colonels" are summarized in the briefing "Strategy for the Long War, 2006-2016: 'Where we are going,' 27 October 2006." The conclusions of the "council of colonels" are summarized in the briefing "Strategy for the Long War, 2006-2016: 'Where we are going,' 27 October 2006."

Chapter 4: A Strategy Is Born.

121 "Producing Victory": Lt. Col. Ollivant's article appeared in the July-August 2006 issue of Lt. Col. Ollivant's article appeared in the July-August 2006 issue of Military Review. Military Review.

Chapter 5: If You're So Smart . . .

139 "sense of reality": Amba.s.sador Carney's comment appeared in the Amba.s.sador Carney's comment appeared in the Washington Post, Washington Post, 14 January 2007. 14 January 2007.

Chapter 6: Gambling on a "s.h.i.tty Hand".

155 "We redefined success": Sky said this first to me in an interview about her work in the winter of 2006-7, then repeated it in her essay "Iraq 2007-Moving Beyond Counter-Insurgency Doctrine: A First-Hand Perspective," published by the Royal United Services Inst.i.tute, London, April 2008. Sky said this first to me in an interview about her work in the winter of 2006-7, then repeated it in her essay "Iraq 2007-Moving Beyond Counter-Insurgency Doctrine: A First-Hand Perspective," published by the Royal United Services Inst.i.tute, London, April 2008.

156 "to settle for far less": Fastabend's essay "How This All Ends: It's Fourth and Long, Go Deep," unpublished doc.u.ment given to Gen. Petraeus, late April 2007. Fastabend's essay "How This All Ends: It's Fourth and Long, Go Deep," unpublished doc.u.ment given to Gen. Petraeus, late April 2007.

160 "rapid decisive operations": For example, see "A Concept for Rapid Decisive Operations," by the J-9 Joint Futures Lab, Joint Forces Command, August 2001. For example, see "A Concept for Rapid Decisive Operations," by the J-9 Joint Futures Lab, Joint Forces Command, August 2001.

160 "dominant maneuver, precision engagement and information operations": The study done at the School of Advanced Military Studies is "To Fight and Win America's Wars . . . and Then What?: A critical a.n.a.lysis of rapid decisive operations in a post-Saddam Iraq," by Army Lt. Col. John Metz, May 2003. The study done at the School of Advanced Military Studies is "To Fight and Win America's Wars . . . and Then What?: A critical a.n.a.lysis of rapid decisive operations in a post-Saddam Iraq," by Army Lt. Col. John Metz, May 2003.

161 "We need rapidly deployable": Secretary Rumsfeld's comments were made in a speech at the National Defense University, Washington, D.C., 31 January 2002. Secretary Rumsfeld's comments were made in a speech at the National Defense University, Washington, D.C., 31 January 2002.

161 "Our mindset was not to kill": Lt. Burns's discussion appeared in his article on "Iraq and the Young Maneuver Leader," Lt. Burns's discussion appeared in his article on "Iraq and the Young Maneuver Leader," Armor Armor magazine, July-August 2008. magazine, July-August 2008.

163 "reaching terminal velocity": Maj. Gillespie's quotation is in his "Operational Leadership Experiences" interview with the Combat Studies Inst.i.tute at Fort Leavenworth. Maj. Gillespie's quotation is in his "Operational Leadership Experiences" interview with the Combat Studies Inst.i.tute at Fort Leavenworth.

163 "We refer not so much to the single outstandingly significant report": Clausewitz's insight on intelligence is made in his discussion of "The People," book 6, chapter 6, of Clausewitz's insight on intelligence is made in his discussion of "The People," book 6, chapter 6, of On War. On War.

166 "Get out of your Humvees": This is from Maj. Halloran's interview with the Combat Studies Inst.i.tute at Fort Leavenworth. This is from Maj. Halloran's interview with the Combat Studies Inst.i.tute at Fort Leavenworth.

166 an average of more than one car bomb attack a day: The data in this paragraph on bombings and downings of helicopters was carried in "Iraq's Sectarian and Ethnic Violence and Its Evolving Insurgency," by Anthony Cordesman, with the a.s.sistance of Emma Davies, Center for Strategic and International Studies, 3 April 2007. The data in this paragraph on bombings and downings of helicopters was carried in "Iraq's Sectarian and Ethnic Violence and Its Evolving Insurgency," by Anthony Cordesman, with the a.s.sistance of Emma Davies, Center for Strategic and International Studies, 3 April 2007.

166 "It's getting worse": Partlow's article ran in the Partlow's article ran in the Washington Post, Washington Post, 6 February 2007. 6 February 2007.

166 "When we first moved into the AO": The operations officer is quoted in the report of the "Theater Operations Detachment" for the Center for Army Lessons Learned at Fort Leavenworth," 13 January 2008. The operations officer is quoted in the report of the "Theater Operations Detachment" for the Center for Army Lessons Learned at Fort Leavenworth," 13 January 2008.

167 "Our first two weeks": Lt. Carlisle's recollection is in the same CALL report. Lt. Carlisle's recollection is in the same CALL report.

167 "My platoon sergeant came to Iraq": Lt. Williamson's comment was made on the Army website Platoon Leader. Lt. Williamson's comment was made on the Army website Platoon Leader.

167 "We did not know": Lt. Col. Crider's quotations are from "Operation Close Encounters," an unpublished essay that circulated by e-mail. Lt. Col. Crider's quotations are from "Operation Close Encounters," an unpublished essay that circulated by e-mail.

167 "constant enemy small-arms fire": Lt. Gross's comments are from the website Platoon Leader. Lt. Gross's comments are from the website Platoon Leader.

167 "We don't need any more information": Capt. Keirsey recounted his bluff in "Reflections of a Counterinsurgency Company Commander," which appeared first on the Army website Company Commander and was reprinted in the June and July 2008 issues of Capt. Keirsey recounted his bluff in "Reflections of a Counterinsurgency Company Commander," which appeared first on the Army website Company Commander and was reprinted in the June and July 2008 issues of Army Army magazine. Keirsey also was interviewed in the CALL report. magazine. Keirsey also was interviewed in the CALL report.

171 "qualified optimist" and "hardest that I have ever experienced": Except for this paragraph, and for the first paragraph in chapter 10, the quotations from Gen. Petraeus in this book are from interviews I did with him or from doc.u.ments. In this paragraph, "qualified optimist" was a comment he made in an interview on Except for this paragraph, and for the first paragraph in chapter 10, the quotations from Gen. Petraeus in this book are from interviews I did with him or from doc.u.ments. In this paragraph, "qualified optimist" was a comment he made in an interview on Charlie Rose, Charlie Rose, 26 April 2007. The other quotation appeared in the 26 April 2007. The other quotation appeared in the Times Times of London, 21 February 2008, in an online posting of the transcript of an interview by Deborah Hayes. of London, 21 February 2008, in an online posting of the transcript of an interview by Deborah Hayes.

171 "I never thought I was going to see": Staff Sgt. Nunez's quotation appeared in Staff Sgt. Nunez's quotation appeared in Stars & Stripes, Stars & Stripes, 24 April 2008. 24 April 2008.

173 "dividing neighbor from neighbor": Professor Niva made this a.s.sertion in "The New Walls of Baghdad," Professor Niva made this a.s.sertion in "The New Walls of Baghdad," Foreign Policy in Focus Report, Foreign Policy in Focus Report, 21 April 2008. 21 April 2008.

174 "The insurgency is like a shark": This appears in "13 Bullets on the Insurgency in Anbar," issued by the Marine intelligence staff in Iraq in March 2008. This appears in "13 Bullets on the Insurgency in Anbar," issued by the Marine intelligence staff in Iraq in March 2008.

174 "The Defense of Jisr al-Doreaa": This was carried on the Small Wars Journal website in June 2008. I am told it will be published as a book by the University of Chicago Press. This was carried on the Small Wars Journal website in June 2008. I am told it will be published as a book by the University of Chicago Press.

176 "First people weren't working with us": Lt. Col. Michael is quoted in the CALL report. Lt. Col. Michael is quoted in the CALL report.

176 "When we first came over": Col. Grigsby made this comment during a briefing with reporters at the Pentagon, 13 December 2007. Col. Grigsby made this comment during a briefing with reporters at the Pentagon, 13 December 2007.

178 "hopeless": Lt. Freeze's memoir, "Notes from Down Range," was carried on the Army website Platoon Leader. Lt. Freeze's memoir, "Notes from Down Range," was carried on the Army website Platoon Leader.

180 "They were carrying bodies": The Iraqi's comment appeared in the The Iraqi's comment appeared in the Washington Post, Washington Post, 4 February 2007. 4 February 2007.

180 "These guys are real smart": Lt. Von Plinsky was quoted in the Lt. Von Plinsky was quoted in the Washington Post, Washington Post, 22 April 2007. 22 April 2007.

181 "the insurgents a.s.sa.s.sinated him": Spec. Hollopeter was quoted in Spec. Hollopeter was quoted in Stars & Stripes, Stars & Stripes, 19 June 2007. 19 June 2007.

181 The battle of Tarmiyah: Most of this section is based on interviews with soldiers involved in this action and with doc.u.ments provided by their commanders. I first learned of this fight from an account by Greg Jaffe that appeared in the Most of this section is based on interviews with soldiers involved in this action and with doc.u.ments provided by their commanders. I first learned of this fight from an account by Greg Jaffe that appeared in the Wall Street Journal Wall Street Journal on 3 May 2007. Among the doc.u.ments I used were "Memorandum for Commander, 1st Brigade Combat Team, 1st Cavalry Division / Subject: 15-6 Investigation Concerning the Suicide Vehicle Borne Improvised (SBVIED) attack on the Tarmiyah Combat Outpost," by Lt. Col. Scott Efflandt, 2 March 2007; "Patrol Base Tarmiyah: Critical Event Lessons Learned," undated PowerPoint briefing; "Demon Co. Update," 1st Sgt. William Tramel, 25 February 2007; "The Battle for AO North," a history of the operations in Iraq in 2006-7 of the 2nd Battalion, 8th Cavalry Regiment. on 3 May 2007. Among the doc.u.ments I used were "Memorandum for Commander, 1st Brigade Combat Team, 1st Cavalry Division / Subject: 15-6 Investigation Concerning the Suicide Vehicle Borne Improvised (SBVIED) attack on the Tarmiyah Combat Outpost," by Lt. Col. Scott Efflandt, 2 March 2007; "Patrol Base Tarmiyah: Critical Event Lessons Learned," undated PowerPoint briefing; "Demon Co. Update," 1st Sgt. William Tramel, 25 February 2007; "The Battle for AO North," a history of the operations in Iraq in 2006-7 of the 2nd Battalion, 8th Cavalry Regiment.

181 "The explosion threw me": Lt. Jokinen's memory is in "Sworn Statement of 1LT Jokinen, Shawn R, 19 Feb 07." Lt. Jokinen's memory is in "Sworn Statement of 1LT Jokinen, Shawn R, 19 Feb 07."

182 "Everything was black": Staff Sgt. Copeland's recollection is from "Sworn statement of the events of 19 Feb 2007, Tarmiyah, Iraq, D C 2-8 Cav, Statement of SSG Copeland." Staff Sgt. Copeland's recollection is from "Sworn statement of the events of 19 Feb 2007, Tarmiyah, Iraq, D C 2-8 Cav, Statement of SSG Copeland."

185 "The very fundamental issue": Gen. Sheehan's criticism appeared in the Gen. Sheehan's criticism appeared in the Washington Post, Washington Post, 11 April 2007. 11 April 2007.

185 "It flat out sucks": Pvt. Perkins's complaint was quoted in the Pvt. Perkins's complaint was quoted in the Washington Post, Washington Post, 13 April 2007. 13 April 2007.

185 "I believe myself . . . that this war is lost": Senator Reid's a.s.sessment was quoted in the Senator Reid's a.s.sessment was quoted in the Washington Post, Washington Post, 20 April 2007. 20 April 2007.

186 "a brief exchange of fire": That characterization appeared in That characterization appeared in Stars & Stripes, Stars & Stripes, 1 September 2008, as did the quotations from the testimony of Pfc. Hartson and of Sgt. Leahy. 1 September 2008, as did the quotations from the testimony of Pfc. Hartson and of Sgt. Leahy.

188 "admit defeat": Gen. Rose's conclusion was reported in the London Daily Telegraph, 4 May 2007. Gen. Rose's conclusion was reported in the London Daily Telegraph, 4 May 2007.

188 "The war in Iraq is approaching": Kissinger's warning was offered in an opinion article that ran in the Kissinger's warning was offered in an opinion article that ran in the Washington Post, Washington Post, 10 July 2007. 10 July 2007.

188 "Today, the wind-by grace of Allah": Al Qaeda's boast was quoted in the U.S. government's digest of Al Qaeda's boast was quoted in the U.S. government's digest of Jihadist Websites Jihadist Websites on on OpenSource.gov, 5 July 2007.

188 "We're tired of being lost": Sgt. 1st Cla.s.s Eaglin's gloomy comment appeared in the Sgt. 1st Cla.s.s Eaglin's gloomy comment appeared in the Washington Post, Washington Post, 8 May 2007. 8 May 2007.

189 "I don't see any progress": Spec. Tertulien's comment was quoted in the Spec. Tertulien's comment was quoted in the Los Angeles Times, Los Angeles Times, 25 August 2007. 25 August 2007.

189 "We pa.s.sed the top half of a HMMWV": Lt. Weber's recollection is in his unt.i.tled interview on the Army's Platoon Leader website. Lt. Weber's recollection is in his unt.i.tled interview on the Army's Platoon Leader website.

189 "I can't take it anymore": This suicide is recounted in a remarkable series of articles that appeared in This suicide is recounted in a remarkable series of articles that appeared in Army Times Army Times in December 2007. in December 2007.

189 "We see that a vast majority": The opinion piece by the seven soldiers from the 82nd Airborne (Spec. Buddhika Jaymaha, Sgt. Wesley Smith, Sgt. Jeremy Roebuck, Sgt. Omar Mara, Sgt. Edward Sandmeier, Staff Sgt. Yance Gray, and Staff Sgt. Jeremy Murphy) appeared in the The opinion piece by the seven soldiers from the 82nd Airborne (Spec. Buddhika Jaymaha, Sgt. Wesley Smith, Sgt. Jeremy Roebuck, Sgt. Omar Mara, Sgt. Edward Sandmeier, Staff Sgt. Yance Gray, and Staff Sgt. Jeremy Murphy) appeared in the New York Times, New York Times, 19 August 2007. 19 August 2007.

190 "cautious, very cautious, optimism": Senator McCain's a.s.sessment and Senator Graham's a.s.sertion about "We're doing now what we should have done three years ago" were offered at the Combined Press Information Center, Baghdad, 1 April 2007. Senator McCain's a.s.sessment and Senator Graham's a.s.sertion about "We're doing now what we should have done three years ago" were offered at the Combined Press Information Center, Baghdad, 1 April 2007.

191 "He rolled over on the supplier": Maj. Allen's comment is in his interview in the Fort Leavenworth's Operational Leadership series. Maj. Allen's comment is in his interview in the Fort Leavenworth's Operational Leadership series.

191 "They feel as long as the Americans are there": Sgt. Maj. Clemens's comment is in his interview with the Operational Leadership series. Sgt. Maj. Clemens's comment is in his interview with the Operational Leadership series.

192 "The quality of life in Jisr Diuala": Grigsby's comment was made in a briefing with Pentagon reporters, 14 May 2008. Grigsby's comment was made in a briefing with Pentagon reporters, 14 May 2008.

193 "synchronization of ISR/HUMINT/SIGINT": This is from "Ironhorse OIF 06-08," an undated operations report by the 1st Brigade Combat Team, 1st Cavalry Division. This is from "Ironhorse OIF 06-08," an undated operations report by the 1st Brigade Combat Team, 1st Cavalry Division.

195 "by not emphasizing population protection": Maj. Gen. Stone's a.n.a.lysis was offered in his undated memorandum "Task Force 134: From Strategic Risk to Strategic Advantage." The survey data in this and the following paragraph are from an unt.i.tled Task Force 134 PowerPoint briefing on the demographics and views of the detainee population. Maj. Gen. Stone's a.n.a.lysis was offered in his undated memorandum "Task Force 134: From Strategic Risk to Strategic Advantage." The survey data in this and the following paragraph are from an unt.i.tled Task Force 134 PowerPoint briefing on the demographics and views of the detainee population.

197 "Of the twenty-seven hundred Iraqi security forces": Lt. Col. Miska was quoted in the Lt. Col. Miska was quoted in the Washington Post, Washington Post, 4 September 2007. 4 September 2007.

Chapter 7: Signs of Life in Baghdad.

200 "Now that the Sunnis are all gone": Capt. Wink was quoted in the Capt. Wink was quoted in the Washington Post, Washington Post, 16 July 2007. 16 July 2007.

202 "Use minimum force": Lt. Coppock's "Counterinsurgency Cliff Notes: Techniques for the Conventional Rifle Platoon, in Layman's Terms" was posted on the Small Wars Journal website in April 2008. Lt. Coppock's "Counterinsurgency Cliff Notes: Techniques for the Conventional Rifle Platoon, in Layman's Terms" was posted on the Small Wars Journal website in April 2008.

206 "It's like raising a crocodile": Al-Muttalibi's simile appeared in the Al-Muttalibi's simile appeared in the Washington Times, Washington Times, 23 July 2007. 23 July 2007.