Rural Health and Welfare Part 5

_Explanation._-This chart is intended to show the tendencies of the market for wheat from month to month throughout the market year. In the center is given the averages of highest prices and of lowest prices for each month in the New York Produce Exchange during the period from September, 1878, to August, 1897, inclusive. The horizontal lines between the averages of extremes give the average price for the twenty years in the several months. The diagonal lines give for each month the extreme fluctuation during the twenty years. Above the lines of averages are given the fluctuations by months in the year 1881-2, the year of highest prices. The upper of the two continuous lines gives the top prices of the month and the lower the bottom prices. The short horizontal lines give the average price for each month; and the double horizontal line across the chart represents the average price for the year. Below, the fluctuations in wheat prices for 1894-5, the year of lowest prices, are shown in the same way. At the top of the chart are given, in millions of bushels, the receipts of wheat in New York. The shaded double column in the center under each month gives the average receipts for twenty years. To the left, a single column shows the receipts for 1894-5. To the right, a single column gives the receipts for 1881-2. Since the receipts at New York are chiefly for export, the general correspondence between receipts and prices is rather a result of a larger application of supply and demand than an exposition of it. The chief use of the chart is to show the fluctuation of prices under varying local conditions. The figures on the left give the price per bushel, and the figures on both left and right at the top indicate millions of bushels.

CHART NO. 8

[Chart.]

Chart VIII. Prices of wheat in England, 1300-1890. Page 93.

_Prices of wheat in England for 600 years, 1300 to 1900_

_Description._-This chart is to show at a glance the history of the wheat market in England for the past six hundred years. The record of the first four hundred years is taken from Rogers' "Agriculture and Prices." That for the eighteenth century, less complete, is taken from Schoenhof's "History of Money and Prices." The nineteenth century record is from the report of the statistician of the United States Department of Agriculture.

All are reduced with care to the basis of bushels and dollars and cents.

The figures on the right and left show the price per bushel in United States money.

_Explanation._-The heavy horizontal lines show the average price during a period of ten years, though in a few instances the period is longer. The diagonal lines show the extremes of fluctuation during the period which they cover. During the first two hundred and fifty years the coinage of England made the shilling in which prices were reckoned a much larger unit, practically three times as great as at present. The dots within circles indicate where the horizontal lines might have been had the unit been always the same. The same dots crossed cover a period of forty years in which prices are somewhat uncertain, from transition between the old standard and the new. The beginning of the nineteenth century shows a remarkable condition of the wheat market, due chiefly to the wars in which England was engaged, together with issues of paper money affecting the standard of value. The record is especially interesting from showing, first, the great fluctuations natural from unequal seasons; second, the gradual increase in cost of production under the law of diminishing returns; third, the effects of changes in money legislation; fourth, the effect of extra consumption in times of war; and fifth, the effects of the present world-wide commerce in overcoming the law of diminishing returns.

A more complete record for the eighteenth century would add to the interest, if not to the effectiveness of the chart.

_Relation to wages._-For convenience of comparison, the average price of wheat in France during periods of twenty-five years, as given by Schoenhof, is added by dotted horizontal lines. The double line across the chart indicates the range of average day's wages of house mechanics in England, without indicating the extreme of fluctuations. It seems evident that wages and subsistence have something in common.

CHART NO. 9

[Chart.]

Chart IX. Prices of hogs and hams in Chicago, 1884-1907. Page 95.

_Prices of live hogs and green hams in Chicago, 1884 to 1897_

_General description._-This chart exhibits the fluctuations in prices of live hogs and green hams as shown by reports of the Chicago Board of Trade from September, 1884, to August, 1897, together with the visible supply of live hogs in the market from month to month and for the entire year. The figures to right and left give dollars per cwt. of live hogs, and per barrel of green hams. The figures upon the upper third of the chart, right and left, indicate the number of thousands of live hogs received in Chicago during the successive months, as indicated by the dark lines. The figures at the top of the chart under the date line give the number of thousands of hogs received during the entire year. The year is taken from September to August following, because the hog crop is in large measure dependent upon the corn crop coming into use in September.

_Prices of live hogs._-No. 3, irregular line, gives the fluctuation of top prices in every month from September, 1884, to August, 1897, for fat hogs.

The total range is between $3.30 per cwt. in September, 1896, and $8.80 in February, 1893. A somewhat striking general correspondence is readily seen between this line of prices and a line connecting the ends of the lines indicating the monthly supply of live hogs at the top of the chart. The average price of the year is easily seen to be low when the supply for the year is high, and high when the supply is low, though in some instances the effect of an increased supply is evidently antic.i.p.ated in the prices.

Thus, an increase of 2,000,000 of hogs in 1889-90 over the supply in 1888-9 is antic.i.p.ated by falling prices during the early part of 1889. In a similar way, the effect of a diminished supply in the summer of 1895 is not so marked upon the prices as might have been the case had not the prospect been strong for a large supply in the fall of 1895. Whatever influence the local manipulation of the market may have had, it is perfectly evident that conditions of supply and demand have overwhelming influence.

_Prices of green hams and mess pork._-No. 2, giving the range of prices per barrel of green hams, shows fluctuations in some respects corresponding to the prices of live hogs, but with variations due in a measure, undoubtedly, to speculative interests in these products. The range is from $6.60 in December, 1897, to $13.80 in May, 1893, corresponding with the range in the prices of live hogs. Were there room upon the chart, it would be easy to show an almost exactly corresponding fluctuation in the prices of mess pork, which article is one affected largely by speculation, though even that speculation is dependent upon prospective supply and demand. The prices of mess pork at the New York Produce Exchange during the same period ranged from $9 a barrel in 1885-6 to $15.80 and $15.60 in 1887-8, $14.20 in 1889-90, $11.75 in 1891, $14.20 in 1892, $22.60 in 1893, and gradually down to $7.25 in 1896-7.

CHART NO. 10

[Chart.]

Chart X. Prices of hogs and pork at Chicago, 1892-3 and 1896-7, highest and lowest year. Page 98.

_Prices of hogs and pork products at Chicago Board of Trade for 1892-3 and 1896-7, the highest year and the lowest year_

_Annual fluctuation, 1892-3._-This chart presents a comparison between the prices of live hogs, fresh hams and mess pork in the year of highest range, with the prices of the same in the year of lowest range. The figures on the left indicate the prices per cwt. of live hogs and per bbl.

of green hams and mess pork. No. 1 gives, in the dotted line above the date figures, the highest price of mess pork in each month of the year, while the dotted line below the date figures gives the lowest price for the corresponding months. The range in any month is found in the distance between the heavy dots on the line following the name of the month. Thus the highest price in April, 1893, is $19.35, and the lowest price in the same month, $15.50. The range throughout the year is from $21.80 in May to $12 in August. No. 2 gives the same facts with reference to the prices per barrel of green hams; and No. 3 gives the corresponding facts as to prices of live hogs.

_Annual fluctuation, 1896-7._-Nos. 4, 5 and 6, marked by more distinct lines, show the range of prices for these three related articles of commerce for the year 1896-7. No. 4 gives the prices of green hams, which in this year averaged higher than the prices of mess pork, although the fluctuations of mess pork are the greater. At the top of the chart are given in thousands the number of live hogs received in Chicago during the two years.

On the right of each month are the numbers for 1892-3; on the left the numbers for 1896-7. The lines connecting the shaded portion show the fluctuations from month to month in the supply. A general, though not a perfect, correspondence is perceptible.

CHART NO. 11

[Chart.]

Chart XI. Annual fluctuations of prices of pork in Chicago, 15 years. Page 100.

_Annual fluctuations in pork prices in Chicago-average of fifteen years_

_Average annual fluctuations._-This chart is intended to show the annual range of prices as shown by reports of the Board of Trade of Chicago, from September, 1883, to August, 1897. The figures, right and left, give prices per cwt. of live hogs, and per barrel of green hams and mess pork. The figures opposite the shaded lines at the top indicate receipts of live hogs in thousands, by the average in each month, for the fifteen years.

The year is taken from September to August following, for correspondence with the crop year, as in previous charts.

_Explanation._-No. 1 gives in the upper continuous line the average of top prices for mess pork in successive months; and in the lower line the average of bottom prices for the same months. The long, diagonal lines show the extreme of fluctuations in each month during the entire fifteen years. Thus the lowest price reached during the month of April in any year was $8.05, while the highest was $25.50. The lowest price in November of any year was $6.40, while the highest price in the same month was $15.50.

No. 2 gives in the same way the average of top prices and bottom prices during the fifteen years for green hams; and by its diagonal lines, the extremes of fluctuation. No. 3 presents a corresponding showing of average top and bottom prices of live hogs, with extreme fluctuations. No. 4, at the top of the chart, gives the average receipts of live hogs in Chicago during the several months of the year, counted in thousands.

The supply of hogs.-The correspondence between the receipts of live hogs and the average market price in each month is worthy of study. Every farmer can see in what months of the year the market is fullest. It is also evident that the fluctuations in mess pork are much more extensive than in live hogs or fresh products. This is doubtless due to the possibility of speculation in a product which can be held for future market. Nevertheless, it is quite evident that the prices of mess pork have some direct connection with the supply available.

CHART NO. 12

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Chart XII. Prices of cattle and beef in Chicago, 1884-1897. Page 103.

_Prices of cattle and mess beef in Chicago, 1884 to 1897_

_Description._-This chart is planned to show the prices of cattle and the prices of mess beef from month to month from September, 1884, to August, 1897, together with the supply of cattle received in Chicago in each month and for each year. The figures right and left on the lower part, give in dollars the prices per hundred pounds live weight, and per barrel of extra mess beef. Above, to right and left, the figures indicate thousands of live cattle received in Chicago.

_Explanation._-No. 1 gives the lowest price in successive months of lowest quality of beef steers. No. 2 gives the highest price in successive months for stock cattle. No. 3 gives the highest price in successive months for best quality of beef steers. No. 4 shows the fluctuations in the highest price per barrel of extra mess beef from month to month. No. 5 shows, by length of lines in each month, the receipts of cattle in Chicago by thousands. No. 6 gives the number of thousands of cattle received in each year. As in previous charts, the year runs from September 1 to August of the year following, though the relation of the beef market to the crops of the year is not so marked as that of the pork market. Although the correspondence in prices between these various parts of the cattle trade is not absolute, it is too striking to be consistent with independence of causes. The price of stock cattle has some elements not found in the price of beef cattle; and the price of lowest quality of beeves for canning purposes is naturally more uniform than any other prices.

CHART NO. 13

[Chart.]

Chart XIII. Annual fluctuations in prices of cattle and beef in Chicago, 1883-1897. Page 104.

_Annual fluctuation in prices of cattle and beef, Chicago, 1883 to 1897_

_Explanation._-This chart is intended to ill.u.s.trate the changes of prices in successive months upon the average of fifteen years, as to stock cattle, beef steers, mess beef and beef hams. The data are taken from the daily records of the Chicago Board of Trade, from September, 1883, to August, 1897. The figures to right and left indicate prices in dollars per hundred pounds live weight, and per barrel of beef products. No. 1 indicates the range of prices for beef hams. The upper line gives the average of highest prices in each month for fifteen years. The lower line gives the average of lowest prices for the same period. The diagonal lines give the extremes of prices within the fifteen years.

_Mess beef and beef steers._-No. 3 gives the average of highest and lowest prices for mess beef. Nos. 4 and 6 give respectively the average of highest and lowest prices for beef steers. The diagonals give the extremes for beef steers during the entire period. No. 5 gives the average of highest prices for stock cattle.

_Supply of cattle._-In the center, No. 2, is given the average receipts of cattle in the Chicago market for each month. The unshaded portion at the end of the lines, represents the average reshipment of cattle. Thus September, on the average, brings 265,000 cattle to Chicago and reships 90,000; while October brings nearly 283,000 and reships 82,000.

_Peculiarities of mess beef market._-It will be noticed that the prices of beef hams give an annual curve, entirely distinct from either of the others. This indicates the fluctuation in demand entirely out of keeping with the supply. It is quite possible that the opening and closing of navigation upon the Great Lakes may be an important influence. Certainly the change of the season between cold and heat is an important element, since the lowest month, and that of least fluctuation, is December. The month of highest prices is August, and those of greatest fluctuation are May, June and September. The curve of prices for mess beef has a fair correspondence with the numbers of cattle slaughtered in Chicago. The line indicating top prices of beef cattle has peculiarities of its own, because it stands for quality as well as quant.i.ty, representing the fancy lots, which are necessarily somewhat more irregular than the average. The line of prices for stock cattle is evidently affected by the variations in demand by feeders. The line of lowest prices for beef cattle, No. 6, is quite probably affected by quality as well as supply.