War-Time Financial Problems Part 8

It is very satisfactory to note, in view of wild talk that has lately been current with regard to restrictions on our power to export capital, that the Committee has not a word to say for any continuance, after the war, of the supervision now exercised over new issues. The restrictions which it did recommend, while admitting their futility, on imports of capital into our shipping and "key" industries were evidently based on fears of possible war in future. The moral is that this war has to be brought to such an end that war and its barbarisms shall be "spurlos versenkt," and that humanity shall be able to go about its business unimpeded by all the stupid bothers and complications that arise from its possibility.

XIV

NATIONAL GUILDS

_October_, 1918

The Present Economic Structure--Its Weaknesses and Injustices--Were things ever better?--The Aim of State Socialism--A Rival Theory--The New Movement of Guild Socialism--Its Doctrines and a.s.sumptions--Payment "as Human Beings"--The "Degradation" of earning Wages--Production irrespective of Demand--Is that the Real Meaning of Freedom?--The Old Evils under a New Name--A Conceivably Practical Scheme for some other World.

Most people will admit that there are many glaring faults in the present economic structure of society. Wealth has been increased at an exhilarating pace during the last century, and yet the war has shown us that we had not nearly realised how great is the productive power of a nation when it is in earnest, and that the pace at which wealth has been multiplied may, if we make the right use of our plant and experience, be very greatly quickened in the next. The great increase in wealth that has taken place has been certainly accompanied by some improvement in its distribution; but it must be admitted that in this respect we are very far from satisfactory results, and that a system which produces bloated luxury plus extreme boredom at one end of the scale and dest.i.tution and despair at the other, can hardly be called the last word, or even the first, in civilisation. The career has been opened, more or less, to talent. But the handicap is so uneven and capricious that only exceptional talent or exceptional luck can fight its way from the bottom to the top, the process by which it does so is not always altogether edifying, and the result, when the thing has been done, is not always entirely satisfactory either to the victorious individual or to the community at whose expense he has won his spoils. The prize of victory is wealth and buying power, and the means to victory is, in the main, providing an ignorant and gullible public with some article or service that it wants or can be persuaded to believe that it wants. The kind of person that is most successful in winning this kind of victory is not always one who is likely to make the best possible use of the enormous power that wealth now puts into the hands of its owner.

Those who are fond of amusing themselves by looking back, through rose-coloured spectacles, at more or less imaginary pictures of the good old mediaeval times, can make out a fair case for the argument that in those days the spoils were won by a better kind of conqueror, who was likely to make a better use of his victory. In times when man was chiefly a predatory animal and the way to success in life was by military prowess, readiness in attack and a downright stroke in defence, it is easy to fancy that the folk who came to the top of the world, or maintained a position there, were necessarily possessed of courage and bodily vigour and of all the rough virtues a.s.sociated with the ideal of chivalry. Perhaps it was so in some cases, and there is certainly something more romantic about the career of a man who fought his way to success than about that of the fortunate speculator in production or trade, to say nothing of the lucky gambler who can in these times found a fortune on market tips in the Kaffir circus or the industrial "penny bazaar," Nevertheless, it is likely enough that even in the best of the mediaeval days success was not only to the strong and brave, but also went often to the cunning, fawning schemer who pulled the brawny leg of the burly fighting-man. However that may be, there can be no doubt that now the prizes of fortune often go to those who cannot be trusted to make good use of them or even to enjoy them, that Mr Wells's great satire on our financial upstarts--"Tono-Bungay"--has plenty of truth in it, and that our present system, by its shocking waste of millions of good brains that never get a chance of development, is an economic blunder as well as an injustice that calls for remedy.

This being so, it is the business of all who want to see things made better to examine with most respectful attention any schemes that are put forward for the reconstruction of society, however strongly we may feel that real improvement is only to be got, not by reconstructing society but by improving the bodily and mental health and efficiency of its members. The advocates of Socialism have had a patient and interested hearing for many decades, except among those to whom anything new is necessarily anathema. There was something attractive in the notion that if all men worked for the good of the community and not for their own individual profit, the work of the world might be done much better, because all the waste of compet.i.tion and advertis.e.m.e.nt would be cut out, machinery would be given its full chance because it would be making work easier instead of causing unemployment, and a greater output, more evenly distributed, would enable the nation to breed a race, each generation of which would come nearer to perfection. So splendid if true; but one always felt misgivings as to whether the general standard of work might not deteriorate instead of improve if the stimulus of individual gain were withdrawn; and that the net result might probably be a diminished output consumed by a discontented people, less happy under a possibly stupid and short-sighted bureaucracy, than it is now when the chances of life at least give it the glorious uncertainty of cricket. Since the war our experiences of official control, even when working on a nation trained in individual initiative, have increased those misgivings manifold; and hundreds of people who were Socialistically inclined in 1914 will now say that any system which handed over the regulation of production and distribution to the State could end only in disaster, unless we could first build up a new machinery of State and a new people for it to work on.

Partly, perhaps, owing to this discredit into which the doctrines of State Socialism have lately fallen, increasing attention has been given to a body of theory that was already active before the war and advocates a system of what it calls Guild Socialism, under which industry is to be worked by National Guilds, embracing all the workers, both by brain and by hand, in the various kinds of production. Its advocates are, as far as I have been able to study their p.r.o.nouncements, decidedly hostile to State Socialism and needlessly rode to some of its most prominent preachers, such as Mr and Mrs Webb, who at least merit the respect due to those who have given lives of work to supporting a cause which they believe to be sound and in the best interests of mankind. But in spite of their chronic and sometimes ill-mannered facetiousness at the expense of State Socialism and its advocates, the Guild Socialists, as we shall see, have to rely on State control for very important wheels in their machinery and leave gaps in it which, as far as disinterested observers can see, can only be filled by still further help from the discredited State. It is no disparagement of the efforts of these writers and thinkers to say that their sketch of the system that they hope to see built up is somewhat hazy. That is inevitable. They are groping towards a new social and economic order which, in their hope and belief, would be an improvement. To expect them to work it out in every detail would be to ask them to commit an absurdity. The thing would have to grow as it developed, and we can only ask them to show us a main outline. This has been done in many publications, among which I have studied, with as much care as these distracting times allow, "Self-Government in Industry," by G.D.H. Cole, "National Guilds," by A.R. Orage (so described on the back of the book, but the t.i.tle-page says that it is by S.G. Hobson, edited by A.R. Orage), and "The Meaning of National Guilds," by C.E. Bechhofer and M.B. Reckitt.

These authorities seem to agree in thinking (1) that the capitalist is a thief, (2) that the manual worker is a wage slave, (3) that freedom (in the sense of being able to work as he likes) is every man's rightful birthright, and (4) that this freedom is to be achieved through the establishment of National Guilds. As to (1) Messrs Bechhofer and Reckitt speak on page 99 of their book of the "felony of Capitalism" as a matter that need not be argued about. Mr Cole makes the same a.s.sumption by observing on page 235 of the work already mentioned that "to do good work for a capitalist employer is merely, if we view the situation rationally, to help a thief to steal more successfully." Well, this view of capital and the capitalist may be true. Mr Cole is a highly educated and gifted gentleman, and a Fellow of Magdalen. He may have expounded and proved this point in some work that I have not been fortunate enough to read. But as the abolition of the capitalist is one of the chief aims put forward by these writers it seems a pity that they should thus first a.s.sert that he is a thief to be stamped out, instead of explaining the matter to old-fashioned folk who believe that capitalists are, in the main, the people (or representatives of the people) who have equipped industry, and enormously multiplied its efficiency and output, and so have enabled the greater part of the existing population of this country (and most others) to come into being. But to the Guild Socialists the ident.i.ty of robbery with capitalism seems to be so self-evident that it needs no proof. Next, as to the wage system. They seem to think that to earn a wage is slavery and degradation, but to receive pay is freedom. With the best will in the world I have tried to see where this immense difference between the use of two words, which seem to me to mean much the same thing, comes in in their view, but I have not succeeded.

Perhaps you will be able to if I give you Mr Cole's own words.

On page 154 of the book cited, he says that the wage system is "the root of the whole tyranny of capitalism," and then continues:

"There are four distinguishing marks of the wage system upon which National Guildsmen are accustomed to fix their attention. Let me set them out clearly in the simplest terms,

"1. The wage system abstracts 'labour' from the labourer, so that the one can be bought and sold apart from the other.

"2. Consequently, wages are paid to the wage worker only when it is profitable to the capitalist to employ his labour.

"3. The wage worker, in return for his wage, surrenders all control over the organisation of production.

"4. The wage worker, in return for his wage, surrenders all claim upon the product of his labour.

"If the wage system is to be abolished, all these four marks of degraded status must be removed. National Guilds, then, must a.s.sure to the worker, at least, the following things:--

"1. Recognition and payment as a human being, and not merely as a mortal tenement of so much labour power for which an efficient demand exists.

"2. Consequently, payment in employment and in unemployment, in sickness and in health alike.

"3. Control of the organisation of production in co-operation with his fellows.

"4. A claim upon the product of his work, also exercised in co-operation with his fellows."

Now, looking with a most dispa.s.sionate eye and an eager desire to find out what it is that Labour and its spokesmen are grouping after, can one find in these "marks of degraded status" any serious evil, or anything that is capable of remedy under any conceivable economic system? In all of them the wage-earner is on exactly the same footing as the salary-earner or the professional piece-worker. The labour of the manager of the works can also be abstracted from the manager, and can be bought and sold apart from him. One would have thought that this fact is rather in favour of the manager and of the wage-earner--or would Mr. Cole prefer that the latter should be bought and sold himself? The salary-earner and the professional are only employed when somebody wants them. The manager's term of employment is longer, but the professional pieceworker, such as I am when I write this article, has usually no contracted term, and is only paid for actual work done. I also have no control over the organisation of the production of _Sperling's Journal_ or any other paper for which I do piecework. I am very glad that it is so, for organising production is a very difficult and complicated and risky business, and from all the risks of it the wage-earner is saved. The salary-earner or the professional, when once his product is turned out and paid for, also surrenders all claim upon the product. What else could any reasonable wage-earner or professional expect or desire? The brickmaker or the doctor cannot, after being paid for making bricks or mending a broken leg, expect still to have the bricks or the leg for his very own. And how much use would they be to him if he could? Unless he were to be allowed to sell them again to somebody else, which, after being once paid for them, would merely be absurd.

But when we come to the remedies that Mr. Cole suggests for these "marks of degraded status," we find in the forefront of them that the worker must be secured "payment as a human being, and not merely as a mortal tenement of so much labour power for which an efficient demand exists." This, especially to an incurably lazy person like myself, is an extremely attractive programme. To be paid, and paid well, merely in return for having "taken the trouble to be born," is an ideal towards which my happiest dreams have ever struggled in vain. But would it work as a practical scheme? Speaking for myself, I can guarantee that under such circ.u.mstances I should potter about with many activities that would amuse my delicious leisure, but I doubt whether any of them would be regarded by society as a fit return for the pleasant livelihood that it gave me. And human society can only be supplied with the things that it needs if its members turn out, not what it amuses them to make or produce, but what other people want.

And It is here that the National Guildsmen's idea of freedom seems, in my humble judgment, to be entirely unsocial As things are, n.o.body can make money unless he produces what somebody wants and will pay for.

Even the capitalist, if he puts his capital into producing an article for which there is no demand, will get no return on it. In other words, we can only earn economic freedom by doing something that our fellows want us to do, and so co-operating in the work of supplying man's need. (That many of man's needs are stupid and vulgar is most true, but the only way to cure that is to teach him to want something better.) The Guildsmen seem to think that this necessity to make or do something that is wanted implies slavery, and ought to be abolished.

They are fond of quoting Rousseau's remark that "man is born free and is everywhere in chains." But is man born free to work as and on what he likes? In a state of Nature man is born--in most climates--under the sternest necessity to work hard to catch or grow his food, to make himself clothes and build himself shelter. And If he ignores this necessity the penalty is death. The notion that man is born with a "right to live" is totally belied by the facts of natural existence.

It is encouraged by humanitarian sentiment which, rightly makes society responsible for the subsistence of all those born under its wing; but it is not part of the scheme of the universe.

Such are a few of the weaknesses involved by the theoretical basis on which Guild Socialism is built. When we come to its practical application we find the creed still more unsatisfactory. Even if we grant--an enormous and quite unjustified a.s.sumption--that the Guildsman, if he is to be paid merely for being alive, will work hard enough to pay the community for paying him, we have then to ask how and whether he will achieve greater freedom under the Guilds than he has now. Now, freedom is only to be got by work of a kind that somebody wants, and wants enough to pay for it. And so the consumer ultimately decides what work shall be done. The Guildsman says that the producer ought to decide what he shall produce and what is to be done with it when he has produced it. "Under Guild Socialism," says Mr Cole,[1] "as under Syndicalism, the State stands apart from production, and the worker is placed in control." Very well, but what one wants to know is what will happen if the Guilds choose to produce things that n.o.body wants. Will they and their members be paid all the same? Presumably, since they are to be paid "as human beings" and not because there is a demand for their work. But if so, what will happen to the Guildsman as consumer? There will be no freedom about his choice of things that he would like to enjoy. And what about admission to membership of a Guild, the price at which the Guilds will exchange products one with another, and the provision of capital? The nearest approach to an answer to these questions is given by Messrs Bechhofer and Reckitt in Chapter VIII, of the "Meaning of National Guilds." This chapter describes "National Guilds in Being." It tells us that "each man will be free to choose his Guild," which sounds very pleasant, but is completely spoilt by the end of the sentence, which says "and actual entrance will depend on the demand for labour." It sounds just like a capitalistic factory. And then--"Labour in dirty industries, sewaging, etc.--will probably be in the main of a temporary character, and will be undertaken by those who are for the time unable to obtain an entry elsewhere." Most sensible, but where is the freedom? The Guildsman will not be able to do the work that he wants to do unless there is a demand for that kind of labour, and in the meantime, just like the unemployed in the days of darkness, he will be set to cleaning the streets and flushing the drains. Messrs. Bechhofer and Reckitt are, in fact, so sensible and practical that they abandon altogether the freedom of the producer to produce what he likes.

"Indeed," they write, "a query often brought to confound National Guildsmen is this: What would happen to a National Guild that began to work wholly according to its own pleasure without regard to the other Guilds and the rest of the community? We may reply, first, that this spirit would be as unnatural among the Guilds as it is natural nowadays with the present anti-communal, capitalist system of industry" (but under the present system any one who worked without regard to the rest of the community would very soon be in the hands of a Receiver); "secondly, if it did arise in any Guild, this contempt for the rest of the community would be met by the concerted action of the other Guilds. The dependence of any individual Guild upon the others would be necessarily so great that a recalcitrant Guild would find itself at once in a most difficult position, and a Guild that pressed forward demands that were generally felt by the rest of the community to be impossible or unreasonable would soon be brought back into line again."

[Footnote 1: "The Meaning of Industrial Freedom," page 39.]

Of course; but if so, where is the Guildsman's alleged freedom? Every Guild and every Guildsman would have to adapt himself to the wants of the community, just as all of us who work for our living have to do now. He would be no more free than I am, and I am no more free than the person who is sometimes described as a "wage slave." The Guildsman might be happier in the feeling that he worked for a Guild rather than a capitalist employer, but this is by no means certain. The writers just quoted show with much frankness and good sense that there would be plenty of opening for friction, suspicion, discontent and strikes.

"A Guild," they say, "that thought itself ill-used by its fellows would be able to signify its displeasure by the threat of a strike."

The officials of the Guild are to be chosen by the "men best qualified to judge" of their ability, whoever they may be, and every such choice would be ratified by the workers who are to be affected by it. "The Guild would build up in this way a pyramid of officers, each chosen by the grade immediately below that which he is to occupy," Did not the Bolsheviks try something like this system, with results that were not conducive to efficient production? And to meet the danger that the officials as a whole might combine "in a huge conspiracy against the rank and file," Messrs Bechhofer and Reckitt can only suggest vigilance committees within the Guilds. In a word, Guild Socialism seems to be a system that might possibly be worked by a set of ideally perfect beings; but as folk are in this workaday world one can only doubt whether it would be conducive either to freedom, efficiency or a pleasant life for those who lived under it.

XV

POST-WAR FINANCE

_November_, 1918

Taxation after the War--Mr. h.o.a.re's Scheme described and a.n.a.lysed--The Position of the Rentier--Estimates of the Post-War Debt--The Compulsory Loan Proposal--What Advantages has it over a Levy on Capital?--The Argument from Social Justice--Questions still to be answered--The Choice between a Levy and Stiff Taxation--Are we still a Creditor Nation?--Our Debt not a Hopeless Problem--Suggestions for solving it.

Under this heading two very interesting articles were contributed to the October issue of _Sperling's Journal_ by Mr Alfred h.o.a.re and an "Ex-M.P.," and the subject is clearly one to which, now that the end of the war has been brought appreciably nearer by the feats of the Allied armies, too much thought and discussion can hardly be given.

How are we going to face the problem that has been built up for us by the bad finance of the war, the low proportion of its cost that has been paid for out of taxation, and the consequent huge debt with which--it is already over 7000 millions gross--the State will be saddled? Mr. h.o.a.re answered the question by proposing a scheme of taxation of what he called Rente, by which he meant all forms of "unearned income"--"rentals from freehold and leasehold property, interest upon loans whether public or private, and dividends on joint stock companies or sleeping partnerships." He added that in his opinion earned income above a certain figure might reasonably be added to this category on the ground that it has, in some instances, very much the same characteristics as unearned; the income of a "successful professional man or clown or jockey or opera star" being due to peculiar qualities; "and it would be no great hardship if earned income above, say, a thousand a year for a married couple, with an additional three hundred for every child under twenty-five years of age were regarded as unearned, and taxed accordingly." Income was thus the basis of Mr h.o.a.re's scheme. Rente he regards as an agency regulating distribution, and requiring to be constantly checked. "It is," he says, "an elementary principle of social health, and economic prosperity that the share of the national wealth enjoyed by the Rentier, by the owner, that is, of unearned income, should not be excessive," Most people who can follow his admirable example and take a detached and unbia.s.sed view of questions which affect their pocket so closely, will agree with him In this opinion. The Rentier lives on the proceeds of work done in the past by him or by some other person; and it is not good for our economic health that he should grow too fat at the expense of those who are working now, lest the latter be discouraged and work with less spirit.

At the same time we have to remember that the work done in the past by the Rentier or those whom he represents, has given us the plant and equipment (in the widest sense of the phrase) with which we are now working. If, therefore, we penalise the Rentier too severely we shall discourage his future creation; the present race of earners, if they see that those who are living on past savings are shorn too close will be deterred from saving, will put their surplus earnings into extravagant spending instead of into plant and equipment, and the economic future of the nation, and of the world, will be _pro tanto_ less hopeful. If once our fiscal system is going to propagate the view--already so rampant among the happy-go-lucky citizens of this unthrifty people--that the worst thing to do with money is to save it there will be bad times ahead for our industry and commerce, which can only get the capital that it needs if somebody saves it. Mr h.o.a.re's elaborate calculations led him to conclusions involving a tax of 11s. 6d. in the pound on unearned income. This figure is, I hope, needlessly high. To arrive at it he a.s.sumed that peace might be concluded towards the end of 1919, and that when peace conditions are fully re-established--which will take, he thinks, three years, the National Debt will amount to 10,000 millions, involving annual interest of 500 millions, which, added to the total Rente of the country in 1913 (which he made out to be 520 millions), will make a total Rente in 1923 of 1020 millions. His view is that the burden of the National Debt should be thrown by means of the income tax upon the national Rente, not taxing it out of existence, but by such a scale of taxation as would reduce the net Rente of the country to approximately the level at which it stood before the war.

There is good reason to hope that Mr h.o.a.re's figures will not be reached. He took 10,000 millions merely as a round sum. Mr Bonar Law, it will be remembered, worked out our net debt on March 31st next at 6856 millions, taking credit for half the estimated amount of loans to Allies as a good a.s.set. If we prefer as sounder bookkeeping to write off the whole of our loans to Allies for the time being and to apply anything that we may hereafter receive on that account to Sinking Fund, the debt, on the Chancellor's figures, will amount on March 31st (if the war goes on till that date) to 7672 millions. Even if the war went on for six months more it ought not to bring the debt up to more than 9000 millions at the outside. It is quite true, as Mr h.o.a.re says, that the return to peace conditions will be a gradual process, and that expenditure will not come back to a peace basis all at once. Demobilisation and other matters which were left, by our cheery Chancellor, out of the airy after-war balance-sheet that he so light-heartedly constructed, may cost 1000 millions or more before we have done with them. But against them we can set a string of recoverable a.s.sets which, in the Chancellor's hands, footed up a total of 1172 millions--balances in agents' hands, due debts (apart from loans to Allies), land, securities, ships, buildings, stores In Munitions Department, arrears of taxation, and so on. With his 11s.

6d. in the pound on unearned and 6s. in the pound on earned incomes, Mr h.o.a.re expects a revenue of 620 millions, "or enough to provide for the interest of the debt with a 1 per cent. Sinking Fund, and leave 20 millions towards the Supply Services." But Mr Bonar Law antic.i.p.ated a total peace Budget (if the war ended by March 31st next) of 650 millions. This was probably too low, but we may at least hope that Mr h.o.a.re has gone rather further than was necessary to be on the safe side.

In the other article on the subject of post-war debt contributed to the last number of this Journal, an "Ex-M.P." plumped for a somewhat novel variety of the Levy on Capital, in the shape of a Compulsory Loan, bearing no interest and repayable in 100 years. Each individual citizen to be made to subscribe to the extent of 20 per cent. of his possessions. Ten per cent. of the amount due to be paid on application, 10 per cent. six months after allotment, and 80 per cent.

on January 1st of the following year. When desired, the Government to advance at 5 per cent. the money necessary for the payment subsequent to allotment, full repayment of such advances to be made within eight years. A Sinking Fund to be established to redeem the loan at maturity. But is there any real advantage in this scheme over the Levy on Capital, from which it only differs by the receipt by the payer of a promise to repay in 100 years' time? The approximate value of 1000 nominal of the Compulsory Loan stock would be, according to "Ex-M.P.'s" calculation, in the year of issue 7 12s., money being worth 5 per cent. and a.s.suming that rate to be current during the remainder of the term. The claim that there is no confiscation, because "a perfectly good security is given for the money received,"

would seem rather futile to those who paid 1000 and received a security, the present value of which might be below 10. They might very likely think that outright confiscation (since confiscation originally means nothing but "putting into the Treasury") is really a simpler way of dealing with the problem. "Ex-M.P.," however, estimates that the immediate redemption of 2800 millions of debt (which he, rather modestly, expects to be the result of his 20 per cent. levy) would enable the balance of the War Debt to be converted into 3-1/2 per cent. stock. This may be true, but if so it is equally true if a similar or larger amount of debt is cancelled by means of an outright Levy on Capital.

The merits and demerits of a Levy on Capital have already been dealt with in the pages of this Journal "Ex-M.P.," however, brought forward a slightly novel form of argument in its favour. He pointed out that the money const.i.tuting the great increase in debt that has taken place during the war will have been, in the main, contributed by people who have worked at home under the protection of the Army and Navy, while the soldiers and sailors have been prevented by the duty which sent them out to risk their lives from subscribing a proportionate share to the National Debt. Hence "a cla.s.s that deserves most of the State will find itself indebted to a cla.s.s which--if it does not deserve least of the State--has, at any rate, turned a national emergency to personal profit." This is a strong argument, which, has been used frequently in the course of the war in the pages of the _Economist_, against borrowing for war purposes to the large extent to which our timid rulers have adopted the policy. "To be really just," the writer continued, "the process of taxation ... must be applied with greatest force to those who have acc.u.mulated their money since the outbreak of war, and only to a less degree to those whose fortunes have not been built upon their country's necessity. The difficulty of separating these two cla.s.ses of wealth is great, and must, in the writer's opinion, be effected by separate legislation--legislation which might justly be based upon the increase in post-1913 incomes, a record of which should now be in preparation at Somerset House." Everyone will agree that everything possible should be done to take the burden of the war debt off the shoulders of those who have fought for us; but it is equally clear that now that the mischief of this huge debt has been done, it will be exceedingly difficult to repair it by any ingenuities of this kind. For instance, if the kind of taxation--in the shape of a Compulsory Loan--proposed by "Ex-M.P." were enforced, how can we be sure that it would not take a large slice off capital, the next heir to which is a soldier or a sailor? Bad finance is so much easier to perpetrate than to remedy that one is almost certain to come across such objections as this to any scheme for making the war profiteers "cough up" some of their gains.

Moreover, we have to remember that by no means the whole of the war debt represents the gains of those who "have turned a national emergency to personal profit." Some people whose incomes have been actually decreased by the war, especially when currency depreciation is taken into account, have, in response to the appeals of the War Savings Committee, saved more than they ever saved before by patriotically stinting themselves. And even the savers who have saved out of war profits were so far more patriotic than the war profiteers who did not save but squandered. In all the discussion concerning the Levy on Capital I have not seen any answer (even in Mr Pethick Lawrence's very persuasive little book in its favour) to the three great objections to it (1) that it lets off the squanderer and penalises the saver; (2) that the difficulty, trouble and expense involved by the necessary valuation, and the iniquities and frauds that are almost certain to arise out of it, will be enormous; and (3) that its economic effect may be very serious in discouraging acc.u.mulation. "Why should any one save," the unthrifty soul will most naturally ask, "if his savings are liable to have a slice cut out of them by a levy at any time?" The advocates of the Levy, and "Ex-M.P."

in his advocacy of a Compulsory Loan for repayment of debt; a.s.sume that it can be done once and for all and never again. "Take one-fifth of a man's savings away as an emergency measure not to be repeated, and he will at once endeavour to save it back again." But how will you persuade him that it is an emergency measure not to be repeated? How can you be sure that it is so? I have heard a very distinguished Socialist, discussing in private the beauties of the Levy on Capital, point out that it is the sort of thing which, when once the ice has been broken, can be done again so easily. From the Socialist point of view the Levy on Capital is, of course, a simple means of getting, by repet.i.tions of it at regular intervals, all the means of production into the hands of the State; but would the State make a good use of them?

Another a.s.sumption about the Levy on Capital that seems to me to be the merest will o' the wisp is the delusion that the whole saving that it would entail by reducing the debt charge would necessarily and certainly go to the relief of income tax. On this a.s.sumption Mr Pethick Lawrence bases his most persuasive appeal to the smaller income-tax payer, by showing that he would be better off after a Levy on Capital than before it, thanks to the reduction in income tax, which is a.s.sumed as axiomatically arising in its train. But is this certain or even likely? Is it not much more probable that our Government, finding its post-war Budget greatly lightened by a Levy on Capital or a Compulsory Loan to redeem debt, will think itself free to indulge in extravagance, maintaining a considerable part of the war income tax and wasting it on rash experiments? All these weaknesses, which appear to be inherent alike in the Levy on Capital or in the scheme which gilds the pill by calling it a Compulsory Loan, seem to be ignored or neglected (perhaps because they are unanswerable) by their advocates. On the other hand, there are certain psychological arguments on the other side. If the well-to-do, who would have to pay the Levy or subscribe to the Compulsory Loan, would prefer that system to a high income tax, there is no more to be said. A tax that is popular with the payer, as compared with other modes of shearing his fleece, needs no further recommendation. But, in view of the probability of the experiment, once tried, being shortly and frequently repeated, I Very much doubt whether this is so; as far as I have been able by personal inquiry to test opinion on the point I have found it almost unanimously adverse among those whom the Levy would most seriously affect. If, as is much more likely, the imposition of a Levy created better feeling among the working cla.s.ses and the returning soldiers and tended to more harmonious co-operation in after-war tasks of reconstruction, it might be worth while to face its evils and its dangers. But here again it is quite probable that if the burden of war debt were clearly and palpably put on the shoulders best able to bear it, that is, on those who are lifted by the gifts of fortune--either in inherited money or unusual brainpower or faculties--by an equitably graded income tax, the effect might be just as good on the minds of those who suspect that the rich have battened throughout the war on exploitation of the poor.

This much at least seems to be agreed by most reasonable people about the debt charge--that it will have to be raised, either by a Levy on Capital or by income tax or some other form of direct taxation, from those who are blessed with a margin. We are not likely to repeat our ancestors' mistake, after the Napoleonic War, of throwing the whole burden on to the general consumer by indirect taxation of necessaries and of articles of general consumption. Even Tariff "Reformers" say little about the revenue that their fiscal schemes would bring in. And with good reason. For in so far as they secured Protection they would bring in no revenue; we cannot at once keep out foreign goods and tax them; and any revenue that they brought in would be most expensively raised, because a large part of the extra price paid by the consumer would go not to the State but into the pockets of the home producer.

Nor is it likely that any of the many schemes--of which Mr Stilwell's "Great Plan, How to Pay for the War," is a particularly bold example--for paying off debt by a huge issue of inconvertible currency, will achieve any practical result. Not only would they defraud the debt-holder by paying him off in currency enormously depreciated by the multiplication of it that would be involved; but they would also, by that depreciation, throw the burden of the debt on the shoulders of the general consumer through a further disastrous rise in prices, and so would accentuate the bitterness and discontent already rife owing to the war-time dearness and all the suspicions of profiteering and exploitation that it has engendered.