War-Time Financial Problems Part 11

A point on which the commercial world does not seem to have made up its mind, however, is whether there should be a limit at all. Under the old Act there was a limit which could only be pa.s.sed by a breach of the law. Under the Cunliffe proposal the limit could be pa.s.sed with the consent of the Treasury. Sir Edward has not told us of what machinery he proposes for the pa.s.sing of the limit which he lays down; but in view of the great apprehension that an approach to the limit point would, as shown by the Committee, produce, it is clear that there would have to be a way round. In Germany there is no limit; you pay a tax on the excess issue and go on merrily. In America it would seem that the German system has been taken for a model. In his speech on January 29th Sir Edward quoted Senator Robert Owen, who was the princ.i.p.al pioneer of the Federal Reserve Bill through the Senate, as follows:--"The central idea of the system is elastic currency issued against commercial paper and gold, expanding and contracting according to the needs of commerce.... It is of great importance that the volume of these notes should contract when the commerce of the country does not require the notes to be circulation, and the reserve board can require them to be returned by imposing a tax upon the issue.... Under the reserve system a financial panic is impossible. People will not h.o.a.rd currency nor h.o.a.rd gold when they know that they can get currency or get gold when required.... America no longer believes a financial panic possible, and therefore the business men, being perfectly a.s.sured as to the stability of credits, do not hesitate to enter manufacturing and commercial enterprises from which they would be deterred under old conditions of unstable credit." Well, let us hope the Senator is right and that America is right in believing that a financial panic is no longer possible there. But one cannot help feeling that such a belief may be rather dangerous in the minds of people so ready to take rose-coloured views as our American cousins.

The Federal Reserve system has worked beautifully in a period in which American finance has had nothing to do but rake in the enormous profits of American production at the expense of warring Europe and lend part of them, to be spent in America, to the Allied belligerents.

It may work equally well if and when the problem to be faced is different, but it will be interesting to see--for those of us who live to see--what sort of a tax will be needed to "require" America, in one of its holiday moods, to return currency that it thinks it needs and the Federal Reserve Board regards as redundant.

Another point on which Sir Edward lays great stress, in his attack on the Bank Act of 1844 and the Committee which supports its main principles, is the beauty of the bill of exchange as backing for a note issue, as opposed to Government securities. "There is," he says, "no automatic system for the redemption of currency notes as would be the case if they were issued against bills of exchange, which in due course would have to be paid off." Again, "it seems to me that notes should not be issued against Government securities which may or may not be paid off, but against bills of exchange which must be met at due date." This advantage about a bill of exchange is a very real one to the individual holder who can always put himself in funds by letting the contents of his portfolio "run off"; but is there much in it as a safeguard against excessive issue of currency in times of exuberance? In such times bills that fall due are pretty sure to be replaced by new ones drawn against fresh production--since over-production is a common symptom of commercial exuberance--or against a resale of the goods on which the original bills were based.

As long as anyone who can show produce can be certain to get credit and currency, the notion that the maturing of bills of exchange can be relied to restrict currency expansion within safe limits is surely a dangerous a.s.sumption. The principle of a fixed limit, to be broken in case of real need, but only after some ceremony has been gone through giving notice of the fact that a crisis has been reached, seems rather to be required by the psychology of speculative mankind. But even if Sir Edward's preference for bills of exchange as backing for notes has all the merits that he claims that is no reason for urging the repeal of the Bank Act to secure their use. Because the Bank Act does not forbid it: it merely says, "there shall be transferred, appropriated and set apart by the said governor and company to the Issue Department of the Bank of England securities to the value of," etc. It is the practice of the Bank to put Government securities into the Issue Department, but the terms of the Act do not compel them to do so, and if an excess issue were needed they would seem to be empowered to put any bills that they discounted into the a.s.sets held against the note issue. On the whole the terms of the Act leaving them freedom in the matter, except with regard to the "Government debt" of 11 millions, which is specially mentioned as to be transferred to the Issue Department, seem to be preferable to a special stipulation in favour of bills of exchange.

But the most important difference between Sir Edward Holden and the Cunliffe Committee seems to be in their att.i.tude towards the gold reserve and the relation between the Bank of England and the rest of the items that compose the London money market. The Committee, working to restore the conditions which made our market the centre of the world's finance, endeavoured to give back the control of the central gold reserve to the Bank of England by suggesting, among other things, that the other banks should hand over their gold to it. They omitted to discuss the serious question of the greater difficulty that the Bank is likely to find in future in controlling the price of money in the market, owing to the huge size that the chief clearing banks have now reached. But a central gold reserve under central control was evidently the object at which they aimed. Sir Edward will have none of this. He says that if this were done the position of the Joint Stock banks would be weakened, though he does not explain why, since they would obviously hold notes in place of their gold and so would be able to meet their customers' demands, now that the latter are accustomed to the use of notes for pocket money. He points out that "the gold which was held by the Joint Stock banks before the war proved most useful.... At the beginning of the war the banks paid out gold, satisfied the demands of their customers for small currency, and thus eased the situation until currency notes became available." He seems to have forgotten that the banks, or most of them, refused to part with their gold, paid their customers in Bank of England notes which, being for 5 at the smallest, were of little use for pocket money, and so drove them to the Bank to get gold; and we had to have a prolonged bank holiday and a moratorium. Sir Edward is in favour of three gold reserves, one to be held by the Government, one by the clearing banks, and one by the Bank of England. If there were differences between the three controllers of the reserve at a time of crisis the consequence might be disastrous.

In view of the admiration expressed by Sir Edward for the new American system which is so clearly based on central control it is rather illogical that he should be so strongly in favour of independence on this side of the water. His opinion is that "the policy of the Joint Stock banks ought to be to make themselves independent of the Bank of England by maintaining large reserves in their vaults." Independence and individualism are a great source of strength in most fields of financial activity, but in view of the great problems that our money market has to face there seems to be much to be said for co-operation and central control, at least until we have got back to a normal state of affairs with regard to the foreign exchanges.

XIX

TIGHTENING THE FETTERS OF FINANCE

_March_, 1919

The New Meaning of Licence--The Question of Capital Issues--Text of the Treasury Regulations--Their Scope and Effect--The Position of the Stock Exchange--Wider Issues at Stake--Should Capital be set Free?--The Arguments for and against--Perils of an Excessive Caution--The New Committee and its Terms of Reference--The Absurdity of prohibiting Share-splitting--The Storm in the House of Commons--Disappearance of the Retrospective Clause--A Sample of Bureaucratic Stupidity.

A contrast between liberty and licence is a pleasant alliterative commonplace beloved by political writers, especially those with a reactionary bias. In the light of recent events it seems to be going to take a new meaning. Licence will soon be understood, not as the abuse of liberty, to which democracies are p.r.o.ne, but as a new weapon by which our bureaucracy will do away with liberty by tightening the shackles on our economic and other activities. For imports and exports the licence system is already familiar; if the mines and railways are to be nationalised we may have to be licensed before we can burn coal or go away for a week-end; if the Eugenists have their way a licence will be necessary before we can propagate the species; and before we can get a licence to do anything we shall have to go through an exasperating process of filling in forms innumerable, inconsistent, overlapping and incomprehensible. Finance is the latest victim of this melancholy tendency. Under the guise of an attempt to give greater freedom to it a system has been introduced which makes a Treasury licence necessary, with penalties under the Defence of the Realm Act, for doing many things which have hitherto been possible for those who were prepared to forgo the privilege of a Stock Exchange quotation.

Let the story be told in official language, as uttered through the Press Bureau, on February 24th, in "Serial No. C. 10917."

"In view of the changed conditions resulting from the conclusion of the armistice, the Treasury has had under consideration the arrangements which have been in force during the war for the control of New Issues of Capital.

"The work of scrutinising proposals for new Capital Issues has been performed during the war by the Capital Issues Committee, the object being to refuse sanction for all projects not immediately connected with the successful prosecution of the war. The decisions of the Treasury, taken upon the advice of this Committee, have, however, not had any binding force, beyond what is derived from the emergency regulations of the Stock Exchange, which forbids dealings in any new Issues which have not received Treasury consent.

"While it is not possible under existing financial conditions to dispense altogether with the control of Capital Issues, it has clearly become necessary to reconsider the principles upon which sanction has been given or refused in order that no avoidable obstacles may be placed in the way of providing the Capital necessary for the speedy restoration of Commerce and Industry, and the development of public utility services.

"In view of the numbers of the proposals for fresh Issues of Capital which are to be expected, it is necessary to provide further machinery for dealing with them and for making the decisions upon them effective.

"A regulation under the Defence of the Realm Act has accordingly been made prohibiting all Capital Issues except under licence from the Treasury, and the Capital Issues Committee has been reconst.i.tuted with new Terms of Reference, which are as follows:--

"'To consider and advise upon applications received by the Treasury for licences under Defence of the Regulation (30 F) for fresh Issues of Capital, with a view to preserving Capital during the reconstruction period for essential undertakings in the United Kingdom, and to preventing any avoidable drain upon Foreign Exchanges by the export of Capital, except where it is shown to the satisfaction of the Treasury that special circ.u.mstances exist.'

"It will be an instruction to the Committee that, in order that applications may be dealt with expeditiously and to enable oral evidence to be given in support of them when desired by the applicant, that the Committee should sit by Panels consisting of three members, the decision of the Panels to be subject to confirmation by the full Committee.

"All applications for licences most be made, in the first instance, in writing on a Form which can be obtained from the Secretary of the Capital Issues Committee, Treasury, S.W. 1.

"Before any application is refused the Committee will give the applicant an opportunity of giving oral evidence in support of his case."

The notice then proceeded to recite the terms of D.O.R.A. 30 F, of which more anon. Next day came a supplementary announcement, "Serial No. C 10938," as follows:--

"With reference to the recent announcement in the Press that all applications for Treasury licences must be made in writing on a form obtainable from the Secretary of the Capital Issues Committee, Treasury, S.W. 1, delay will be avoided if intending applicants will state which of the following forms they require:--

"Form No. 1. Issue by a proposed New Company to start a fresh business.

"Form No. 2. Issue by an Existing Company (other than for the purpose of capitalising profits).

"Form No. 3. Issue by an Existing Company for the purpose of capitalising profits.

"Form No. 4. Conversion of a Firm into a Limited Company which does Not involve the introduction of fresh capital.

"Form No. 5. Conversion of a Firm into a Limited Company which Does involve the introduction of fresh capital.

"If none of the above Forms appears to be applicable (as, e.g., in amalgamations, sub-divisions of shares, etc.), a statement of the facts should be submitted in writing."

Before we go on to consider the new regulation, 30 F, let us try to see what is the real effect of the doc.u.ment above quoted. It was evidently intended to be a relaxation of the control of finance.

This is shown by the sentence which says that the matter was to be reconsidered "in order that no avoidable obstacle may be placed in the way of providing the capital necessary for the speedy restoration of commerce and industry, and the development of public utility services." And yet it was thought necessary to give legal force and attach penalties to regulations that have worked during the war quite sufficiently well to secure a much stricter control than is now required. The explanation of this apparent inconsistency is probably to be found in the desire of the Government to meet a grievance of the Stock Exchange. Hitherto the only penalty that befell those who made a new issue without getting Treasury sanction was that the securities issued could not be dealt in on the Stock Exchange. The practical effect of this was that those who acted without Treasury sanction could only issue securities subject to this serious drawback, and so an effective but not altogether prohibitive bar was put on the process. If this bar was not strong enough in war-time it ought clearly to have been strengthened long ago; if it was strong enough, then why should it be strengthened now?

From the Stock Exchange point of view it is easy to make out a good case for working through licence and penalty rather than through the banning, of the securities effected, from sanction for dealings. By thus being used as an official weapon the Stock Exchange penalised itself and its members. By saying "no security not sanctioned by the Treasury shall be dealt in here," its Committee restricted business in the House and drove it outside. This grievance was obvious and was plentifully commented on during the war. If the Committee had pressed the point vigorously it could probably have forced the Government long ago to abolish the grievance by making all dealings in new issues that appeared without Treasury sanction illegal and liable to penalty.

A patriotic readiness to fall in with the Government's desires was probably the reason why the Stock Exchange refrained from embarra.s.sing it, during the war, by too active protests against a grievance that was then more or less real; though it should be noted that even if the grievance had been amended, the Stock Exchange would not necessarily have got any more business, but would only have succeeded in stopping a very moderate amount of business that was being done by outsiders.

But when all is said that can be said for the justice of the case that can be made by the Stock Exchange, the question still arises whether it was advisable, at a time when relaxation of restrictions was desirable in the interests of the revival of industry, to draw tighter bonds which had been found tight enough to do their work. That the Stock Exchange should suffer from limitations from which outside dealers were exempt was certainly a hardship. On the other hand, since the armistice there has been a considerable expansion in Stock Exchange business. Oil shares, Mexican securities, industrial shares, insurance shares, and others in which capitalisation of reserves and bonus issues have been used as an effective lever for speculation, have enjoyed spells of considerable activity. With this revival in progress, in spite of many obvious bear points, such as industrial unrest at home, Bolshevism abroad, the continuance of heavy expenditure by the Government, and the hardly slackened growth of the national debt, it seems to have been scarcely necessary in the interests of the House to have made regulations which, though perhaps demanded by abstract justice, imposed new ties on enterprise at a time when complete freedom, as far as it was consistent with the best interests of the country, was most of all desirable.

How far, we have next to ask, is it necessary for the best interests of the country to restrict the freedom of capital issues? If we look back at the terms of reference under which the reconst.i.tuted Committee is to work, we see that the officially expressed objects are (1) preserving capital for essential undertakings in the United Kingdom, and (2) preventing any avoidable drain upon Foreign Exchanges by the export of capital. There is certainly much to be said for both these objects. When we lend money to foreigners we give them the right to draw on us now in return for their promises to pay some day; in other words, we make an invisible import of foreign securities, and in the present state of our trade balance all imports, whether visible or invisible, need careful watching. It is also very evident that at a time when capital is scarce there is much to be said for keeping it for essential industries, especially those which produce necessaries and goods for export, and not allowing it to be swept up by borrowers who are going to devote it to making expensive fripperies on which big profits are probable.

There remains a very big other side to both these questions. All over the world there is a demand for goods which have not been produced, or only in greatly reduced quant.i.ties, during the war. This demand is only effective in so far as willing buyers can pay; some of them have the needful cash in hand or waiting in London or elsewhere to be drawn on, but a great number of would-be buyers want to be financed, and will have to be financed by somebody if the needs that they feel are to be translated into actual purchases. In other words, in order that the wheels of industry are to be set turning as fast as they might, if they had a full chance, somebody has to lend freely. Now, it is surely most of all important in the national interest that those wheels should begin spinning as fast as possible, and the question is whether we are more likely to serve that interest best by keeping a meticulous eye on the course of exchange and b.u.t.toning up our pockets to foreign borrowers or by leaving capital free to seek its market, knowing that every time we give the foreigner the right to draw on us we stimulate our export trade, because his drawing must finally mean a demand on us for something--goods, securities or gold--and goods are what people are in these times most anxious to take. If we are going to leave all the financing to be done by America and fear to import promises to pay lest they should be followed by demands on our gold, shall we not be rather in the position of Barry Lyndon, who was given a gold piece by his mother when he went out into the world, with strict injunctions always to keep it in his pocket and never to change it? Regard for our gold standard is most necessary, but the gold standard is not an end in itself, but merely an important part of a machine which only exists to serve our industry. If we are so careful of the machine, which is a mere subsidiary, that we check the industry which it is there to serve, we shall be like the dandy who got wet through because he had not the heart to unfurl his beautifully rolled-tip umbrella.

Again, it looks very sound and sensible to keep capital for purposes that are essential, but, on the other hand, it is so enormously important to set industry going as fast as possible that almost any one who will do anything in that direction is ent.i.tled to be given a chance. In war-time, when labour and materials were so scarce that they could not turn out all the munitions that were necessary, such a restriction was clearly inevitable. Now, when labour and materials are becoming more plentiful, and the scarce commodity is the pluck and enterprise that will take the risks involved by getting to work on a peace basis, it may be argued that any one who will take those risks, whatever be the stuff or services that he proposes to produce, should be encouraged rather than checked. It is again a question of the balance of advantage. If we are going to be so careful in seeing that capital is not put to a wrong use that we take all the heart out of those who want to make use of it, we shall do more harm than good. If by leaving capital free to go into any enterprise that it fancies we can give a start to industry and promote a spirit of courage and enterprise among its captains, it will be well worth while to do so at the expense of seeing a certain amount of capital going into the production of articles that the community might, if it made a more reasonable use of its purchasing power, very well do without. The same question arises when we consider the desire of the Government, not expressed in the above statement, but very freely admitted by Mr Bonar Law, in discussing it in the House of Commons, to keep capital to be lent to it rather than expended in, perhaps unnecessary, industry.

Here, again, it is clearly in the interest of the taxpayer that Government loans should be raised on the most favourable terms possible. But if, in order to do so, we starve industry of capital that it needs, and so check the production on which all of us, Government and citizens alike, ultimately have to live, we shall be scoring an immediate advantage at the expense of future progress--spoiling a possibly brilliant break by putting down the white ball for a couple of points.

There is thus a good deal to be said for setting capital free, before we have even arrived at the most serious objection to regulating it under Treasury licence. This objection is the exasperation, delay and uncertainty involved by this control. Even if we had an ideally wise and expeditious body to decide about capital issues it might not be the best thing to set it to work. But when we remember that in order to see that the wrong sort of issue is not made, all issues will have to pa.s.s through the terribly slow-working process of official selection before the necessary licence is finally granted, it begins to look still more likely that we should do well to run the risk of letting a few goats through the gate, rather than keep all the sheep waiting outside for months, with the probable result that many of them may lose altogether their chance of final salvation. It will be noted from the official statement that the arbitrary methods of the old Committee are to be modified. It has long been a by-word among those who had dealings with it; they abused it in quite sulphurous language and were wont to quote it as an example of all that bureaucratic tyranny is and should not be, thereby doing some injustice to our bureaucrats, seeing that the Committee was manned not by officials but by business men, clothed _pro hac vice_ in the thunder of Whitehall.

The new Committee is to sit by panels of three, so as to expedite matters, and so as to allow applicants the privilege of giving oral evidence. This is an innovation that will save some exasperation, but it will hardly accelerate matters, especially as the decision of the panels will be subject to confirmation by the full Committee, so that all the work will have to be done twice over. There is thus much reason to fear that delay, so fatal in business matters, will be an inevitable offspring of the efforts of the new Committee, and the list of different forms on which applications are to be made, given above, shows that all the paraphernalia of red tape will dominate the proceedings.

Now for the terms of the new Regulation under the Defence of the Realm Act.

"1. The following regulation shall be inserted after Regulation 30 EE:--

"30 F. The following provisions shall have effect in respect of new capital issues and to dealings in securities issued for the purpose of raising capital:

"(1) No person shall, except under and in pursuance of a licence granted by the Treasury--

"(a) issue, whether for cash or otherwise, any stock, shares or securities; or

"(b) pay or receive any money on loan on the terms express or implied that the money is to be or may be applied at some future date in payment of any stock, shares or securities to be issued at whatever date to the person making the loan; or

"(c) sub-divide any shares or Debentures into shares or Debentures of a smaller denomination, or consolidate any shares or Debentures of a larger denomination; or

"(d) renew or extend the period of maturity of any securities; or

"(e) purchase, sell or otherwise transfer any stock, shares or securities or any interest therein, or the benefit of any agreement conferring a right to receive any stock, shares or securities, if the stock, shares or securities were issued, sub-divided or consolidated, or renewed or the period of maturity thereof extended, or the agreement was made, as the case may be, at any time between the 18th day of January, 1915, and the 24th day of February, 1919, and the permission of the Treasury was not obtained to the issue, sub-division, consolidation, renewal or extension or the making of the agreement, as the case may be.

"(2) No person shall except under and in pursuance of a licence granted by the Treasury--

"(a) buy or sell any stock, shares or other securities except for cash or when the purchase or sale takes place in any recognised Stock Exchange, subject to the rules or regulations of such exchange.