The Principles of Economics Part 13

[Sidenote: Mode of fixing the rate of time discount in practical business]

Every exchange of a durable agent involves an estimate, rough and imperfect it may be, of that agent's future. The practical men, however, who are thus fixing the "capital value" of goods, are usually only dimly conscious of the logical nature of the process. In fact the process goes on in a way much less a.n.a.lytical and conscious, much more empirical, than this a.n.a.lysis would indicate. Most men simply buy as cheap as they can the agents which at the price they believe will add most to their income. The future changes are only roughly, not accurately estimated.

The shrewd bargainer is the one who foresees more clearly than his fellows the complex changes to come. Other men blindly follow. The ability and the inability to foresee such changes make men rich and poor. In all this bidding for capital the logical basis of the value is the series of rents. When the agent is bought outright, the very concluding of the bargain fixes a relation between the expected value of the income and the value of the capital invested. In other words, the exchange of durable agents virtually wraps up in them a net income, which it is expected will unfold year by year when rents mature and are secured. At the moment of the investment, the expected rents are expressed as a percentage of the capital sum.

-- III. THE INCREASING ROLE OF CAPITALIZATION IN MODERN INDUSTRY

[Sidenote: As exchange increases capitalization of goods becomes more usual]

1. _Where a system of exchange is highly developed, things are looked upon as capital yielding an objective income rather than as wealth yielding immediate means of enjoyment._ In the old organization of industry most men got most of their living from the things they raised or made. At the present time goods are gotten in the most indirect ways; men seek wealth because it will yield them an objective or money income, knowing that if they can get the income, they can get other things by exchange. In business to-day, wherever there is a rental, it is capitalized, has a market value, is bought and sold. Men compete in the purchase of income-yielding agents. There is a continual contest in judgment among investors to secure the largest rent for the smallest outlay. On the other hand, the owners of any rental strive to secure the largest capitalization for it that they can. In this market for capital it is money rents that are exchanged as an indirect means of arriving at gratifications.

[Sidenote: Various kinds of corporation securities put expected incomes in salable form]

2. _The issue of capital stock is the putting of the incomes of wealth into marketable form._ Stock companies, or corporations, are business enterprises which issue stock, or certificates of a share in their wealth and income. Doubtless the convenience of the sale and transfer of invested capital by the use of stock, has been one of several reasons for the large increase of this form of organization during the past century. Originally the stock of a company taken collectively represented all the capital invested, and each share ent.i.tled the owner to a given portion of the total income earned. The shares were issued in regular denominations in terms of money, and this amount expressed on the face of the stock remained fixed. But as a business proves more or less profitable, the value of a share of its income rises and falls regardless of the original amount of stock issued. At once there is a divergence between the nominal or face value and the market value of the stock. The nominal value is relatively permanent, the same year after year; it may increase by further issues, but rarely is it decreased. But when stock is the only form of claim on the earnings that is issued, the fluctuations of the market value of the stock record the real value of the business, that is, the capital value of the rents it is expected to yield. But in present practice there are several forms (of which stock is but one) in which an investor may buy a share in the earnings of a business. Bonds usually do not give their owner a vote in the management or make him in the technical legal sense a part owner in the business.

Bonds representing money loaned to a company, and ent.i.tling their holder to regular interest payments, are nearest in form to the medieval rent-charge. Next stands preferred stock, which ent.i.tles the owners to share first in the dividends, if there are any; and finally the common stock, which gets a share only when the other claims are satisfied. By the multiplication and further variation of these readily salable claims on industrial incomes, the needs and desires of investors are met more fully and with greater precision.

[Sidenote: Any continuing income can be capitalized]

3. _Men seek to convert into marketable capital any increase of income in their wealth or business._ A man who invests a given capital sum in machines, buildings, and materials buys them, as others do, at prices that represent their usual, or market, earning power. If he succeeds exceptionally in his business, he makes the capital earn more than the rents on which it was capitalized. The same material wealth becomes worth more because of the reputation of his products, and therefore the trade-mark and good-will of the business can be capitalized. In this sense a good name can be sold, and is at least as much to be desired, even in a mercenary age, as great riches. Likewise, social changes, new needs, the growth of population, increase the net income of wealth, or the rents of a business. The basis of capital value is income, and whatever be its cause, political or economic, material income can and will be capitalized and added to the market value of the privilege, wealth, or industry on which the income is conditioned.

[Sidenote: The capitalizing of franchises for public-service corporations]

Notable cases of this sort arise in connection with public franchises.

If a street-railway or a gas-company is given the exclusive right to operate in a given locality, any income above average interest on the investment is capitalized either in the higher price of the stock or in additional stock issued without the addition of any material to the plant. If the franchise is unlimited, the income may be capitalized as practically perpetual; if the franchise is limited, and is to expire in thirty or forty years, only the limited series of privileged incomes can ordinarily be capitalized. When, however, the managers are able to exert influence enough to have the franchise extended, and the investors believe in the skill of the managers and perhaps in their power to bribe the legislators, the value of the stock continues higher than it could usually be under a limited franchise. Such circ.u.mstances becloud the question whether the exceptional income arising under the franchise should go to the public or to the company. Granted, however, that the company is ent.i.tled to the income, the burden of proof is on those who object to the capitalizing of the income as is done in every other business.

[Sidenote: Some difficulties in the capitalization of corporate incomes]

4. _The manipulation of dividends and the resulting changes in capitalization open up great opportunities for the dishonest increase of private fortunes._ A great change in the market value of stock is made by a comparatively small change in the income it regularly affords, for if the prevailing rate of interest on money loans is five per cent., each dollar of dividends is capitalized at $20. It might seem that the dividend would be declared if earned, otherwise not. The matter is not so simple and impersonal, however. The control of corporations is vested in the hands of a small group of directors who have both the opportunity and the temptation to withhold dividends when they are earned, to pay them with borrowed money if unearned, and in either case to keep the stockholders and the public in ignorance of the real condition and earning power of the business. The stocks can, by this manipulation of dividends, be made a lottery for the legitimate investor, a trap for the unwary, and a source of unrighteous gain by men recreant to their trusts.

In this way it may be seen that an earning power not known to bidders in the market does not enter into capitalization; a fict.i.tious earning power, however, is capitalized so long as the investors continue to be deceived. Instances of this kind present problems not only of private morality, but of the preservation of free industrial inst.i.tutions. The solution of these problems would perhaps be hastened if the a economic nature of capitalization were more clearly understood. Capital value in modern industry is everywhere the expression of the serial rents of wealth, discounted at a prevailing rate of time discount.

CHAPTER 16

INTEREST ON MONEY LOANS

-- I. VARIOUS FORMS OF CONTRACT INTEREST

[Sidenote: Distinction between contract interest and time-value]

1. _Interest, the amount paid according to contract by one person to another for credit given in terms of money, is but one expression of a larger problem, that of the difference in present worth of goods at two periods of time._ This larger problem appears under several forms: first, as a difference in value, due to time, where there is no money expression (to be considered in the following chapter); second, in discount on a money loan for a short, definite time; third, in a long-time money loan at a fixed rate of interest; fourth, in a credit loan--that is, the sale of the thing on credit in terms of money.

The last three cases involve interest more or less clearly.

Time-discount, as will be more fully explained, is the basis of interest. The interest may be greater or less than the time-discount in the goods, owing to miscalculation on the part of the borrower or to an unforeseen change in the conditions. Men bid for the use of wealth with the intention of repaying it at some future time, and the interest they agree to pay is based on their estimate of the discount of future rents, which they think is involved in the present valuations of the goods.

Time-discount is involved in goods, however, in numberless cases where there is no contract interest. Even a Robinson Crusoe must recognize in his consumption goods and in his various indirect agents differences in value at different periods of time, of which he must take account.

[Sidenote: Risk and expenses to the money-lender]

2. _Gross interest must be distinguished from net interest._ The forms of wealth yielding incomes are so mutable, and are used under such complicated conditions, that both in theoretical discussion and in practice much care is needed to distinguish between the yield attributable to the income-bearer, and that attributable to other wealth or services used in connection with it. That the sum paid as interest on a loan contains other elements is recognized constantly in practice. As in the case of contract-rent allowance must be made for repairs and depreciation, so in the case of contract-interest allowance must be made for risk, or the average loss occurring in the industry. Money loaned in hazardous ventures must yield a higher rate of interest. Likewise capital used by the owner in a hazardous venture must frequently earn very high returns (not all logically interest) to offset the losses that are likely to occur.

The lender must also, in estimating net interest, count the cost of placing, supervising, and collecting the loan. A p.a.w.nbroker lends only small sums and spends much time and effort to keep at interest a moderate capital. Five thousand dollars loaned in sums averaging ten dollars represents five hundred transactions, and yet if placed at five per cent, it yields but two hundred and fifty dollars a year. While, therefore, the borrower of a small sum estimates the economic interest (or antic.i.p.ated gain in income) even higher than the oppressively high contract-interest he may be forced to pay, the lender must credit a large part of the gross interest to the labor he expends in carrying on the business.

[Sidenote: Short-time loans by discounting of commercial paper]

3. _The most usual form of short-time loan is that made by a bank or broker to business men on security of commercial paper._ By commercial paper is meant promissory notes given by customers of the merchants, bills of lading for goods that have been shipped to their customers, and various other evidences of indebtedness that may be offered the banks for discount. When goods have been sold on time (as thirty, sixty, or ninety days) the seller has the choice between letting the time expire and collecting the bills direct from the customers, and discounting the bills for ready money at the bank. According to the conditions and needs of the particular business, either method may be chosen. In most industries there is need for larger capital at the seasons when the product is put upon the market. The merchant or manufacturer plans his business in the expectation of an average rate of discount at such times, and if it chances that the discount rates are abnormally high, he has no choice but to go on borrowing and paying the high interest out of the expected profits of his business. This risk of a change in the interest rate is one of many chances he has to run.

[Sidenote: Long-time loans by purchase of mortgages, bonds, and stocks]

4. _Most debts in modern times are outstanding for a term of years and represent the lender's purchase of a claim on the earnings of some productive enterprise._ The simplest forms of long-time loans are those made on the security of real estate, which is mortgaged to the lender for the term of the debt. Usually the debtor is obliged to pay the interest either annually or semi-annually, and often, but not always, is permitted to reduce the princ.i.p.al by partial payments. These real-estate mortgages rest on the security of the particular mortgaged wealth, and, unlike most short-time loans in bank, are not personal obligations resting on the general credit of the borrower. Most other long-time debts share this character of being non-personal; if payment is defaulted, only the particular wealth can be sold for payment, not the general wealth of the borrower. Corporation bonds, issued by railroads and other large stock companies, have increased greatly in number in recent years. They yield an income fixed in advance, and are secured usually by mortgage on the entire property of the corporation issuing them. The income of some special kinds of "preferred stocks" is so guaranteed as to make them for investors substantially the same as bonds. Another large cla.s.s of long-time loans are those made by national, state, and local governments. Tens of billions of dollars of public debts are now outstanding, held by private investors in every walk of life.

The contract in the case of each kind of these loans provides for a fixed term after which the borrower must repay or renew, and for a fixed rate on the nominal or par value of the loan. Nearly all the securities (bonds, certificates, evidences of indebtedness) are salable at a market rate. It is therefore the income that is fixed, the selling price (or capital value) fluctuating above or below the nominal sum except just at the moment when it is payable. The long-time loan thus is very similar in its economic character to the old-time rent-charge.

[Sidenote: The cost of credit to the improvident buyer]

5. _The sale of goods on credit is a mode of lending and involves interest in a disguised form._ In some cases merchants will not sell cheaper for cash than for credit, for fear of offending their main body of credit customers; but this is exceptional, as there are good reasons why such a difference should be made. The credit sale usually involves interest, and often at a very high rate. In many stores there are two appreciably different prices, one for "slow pay," the other for "spot cash." If a bill paid at the end of the month is five per cent. more than the cash price, the difference is equal to sixty per cent. per annum for the privilege of postponing payment. Such a rate of interest is paid only by the improvident, but that is a large cla.s.s ranging from factory workers to college students. The cash discounts allowed by merchants clearly express the time difference. On fifty to one hundred dollars of outstanding bills, many perfectly honest persons are paying interest at the rate of seventy-five per cent. per annum. The merchant is forced to make this difference because he must seek not only to earn interest on the capital thus invested, but to recover the costs of bookkeeping and collections, and the risk and loss of unpaid bills. The discounts allowed by manufacturers and wholesale houses measure in the same way the difference between cash and credit sales. Not unusual is a discount of "six per cent, in ten days, five per cent, in thirty, or sixty net." The buyer allowing his bills to run for two months (six per cent, for sixty days) pays thirty-six per cent, per annum for the use of that money. The difference is so great that it is impossible to carry on in this way a large business against strong compet.i.tion. Such purchases on credit frequently are made, however, by dealers in small towns.

[Sidenote: Evasion of legal rate of interest]

6. _Interest is often concealed under other forms which increase the apparent rate._ This fact is well shown in the ways by which usury laws fixing the legal rate of interest are evaded. A simple method is for the lender to charge a commission for making the loan, or, if it is a bank, to charge for a pretended cost of exchange to bring the money from some other city. Sometimes the borrower is required to keep larger deposits with the bank than he voluntarily would. Needing $5000, he is compelled to borrow $10,000 and to pay interest on twice as much as he is permitted to use. Again the borrower, in periods of unusual demand for money, is forced to make a long loan instead of a short one. When a one month's loan at ten per cent, would meet his need, he is forced to borrow for twelve months at six per cent., during ten months of which time four or five per cent, is the prevailing rate. In these and other ways the real rate, or burden of the loan, is made different from that which is expressed.

-- II. THE MOTIVE FOR PAYING INTEREST

[Sidenote: Money borrowed to buy consumption goods]

1. _Interest for loans to obtain consumption goods is paid because they are felt to have greater importance at the moment than an equal amount (either of goods or of money) will have in the future._ A sudden stress of misfortune may impart to a thing at the moment far more than its usual value. One standing face to face with starvation cannot be worse off a year hence; often there is good ground to hope that if the present misfortune can be relieved, the future better fortune will make it possible to repay a loan with interest. In other cases, the object of a loan of consumption goods is to increase the future earning-power of the borrower. When the student borrows money that represents to him food, clothing, text-books, tuition, and other expenses incidental to a course in college, the expenditure is intended to increase the effectiveness of the worker. When he borrows he has little earning-power, but with that faith in himself which makes the young American so interesting, he pictures himself four years later, sheepskin in hand, drawing a munificent salary with which he can easily satisfy the most exacting Shylock. Such an expenditure is sometimes called "an investment of capital," but it should be called a consumption loan--nevertheless in many cases a loan wisely made. To call this an investment of capital is to confuse man, the end of production, with material means.

Sometimes this higher estimate of the present good is unwise, viewed in the light of wider experience. Goods that meet momentary desire make an exaggerated appeal to untrained minds. The child, the spendthrift, the savage, cannot properly estimate the relative values of present and future. The improvident sometimes lightly agree to pay an exorbitant interest for an immediate consumption loan, making a ruinous difference between present and future gratifications.

[Sidenote: Money borrowed to buy indirect agents]

2. _Interest on indirect agents is paid as a more or less indirect means of securing gratification._ This can be clearly seen when durable agents are hired that produce gratification directly. A carriage bought with borrowed capital and used for the pleasure of the borrower is expected to afford a utility greater than that to be gotten by the amount of the interest in any other way. A spade bought with borrowed capital and used to cultivate the owner's garden is expected to add products of greater value than the interest.

But how is it in case the agent is used to gratify persons other than the owner? The music-teacher who buys a piano on credit expects to increase his earnings by a sum greater than the interest he has to pay.

If the addition to his earnings exceeds the interest charge, it is because he has found a use for the borrowed capital greater than that on the basis of which it was capitalized in the market. The amount of the interest is secured through the pleasures and services the piano affords to the patrons of the teacher. In the most complex cases of the borrowing and use of indirect agents, there is ultimately this same basis for the interest: enjoyment afforded by the use of capital in the particular period. To the borrower, what the capital makes possible is an addition to his income as great as, or greater than, the prevailing interest. Most loans in our society are now of this sort. Money is borrowed to invest in business, to get better machinery or a larger stock; with this capital is secured a better or larger product, and the product finally being sold at a profit, the business man is at a point where he can satisfy his wants without encroaching on his capital.

Logically, therefore, the consumer of the product pays the interest in the price, and the final consumer's enjoyment must be deemed the logical source of the money interest. The borrower's motive for paying interest on these indirect goods evidently is his hope of profit through realizing a greater money rent than he has contracted to pay for their use.

[Sidenote: The special case of money borrowed to pay debts]

3. _The money market in which short-time loans are made is peculiar in that the money frequently is borrowed to pay debts, not for investment._ In beginning the discussion of interest, it always is remarked that it is not money, but capital, that is borrowed and loaned. This caution against the superficial errors that so easily beset the popular discussion of interest is much needed, but it is well to note a peculiar case which is apparently in contradiction to this statement. The usual method by which money is loaned in the great industrial centers is called discount, which is the exchange of a certain sum of money for a note or other credit paper of a larger amount, the interest thus being taken out in advance. Much borrowing in the form of discount is for the same purpose as other borrowing--to acquire control of more productive agents, to embark on new enterprises. The peculiarity of the discount money-market is that an unusual number of loans are made to meet contracts that have already been made. There is always a great ma.s.s of outstanding obligations, and merchants are compelled to renew these loans on penalty of bankruptcy. This market for short-time loans is not connected closely with the general market for loanable capital. When the need is for ready money, other concrete capital cannot flow in to meet it. This special money demand, therefore, in time of greater or less stress, may fluctuate rapidly, and the interest rate be temporarily higher or lower than the rate on long-time loans. This case is similar to that where two markets, as a retail and a wholesale one, exist side by side, but slowly exerting a mutual influence.

[Sidenote: Productive borrowers seek a profit on their investments]

4. _In the long-time money loan the money generally is borrowed first merely as a medium of exchange to get control of indirect agents._ The borrower of a long-time money loan for productive purposes is always seeking to gain by investing the money in wealth that will yield an income larger than the interest he must pay. The borrower, therefore, invests in view of the rate of interest, of the market price of the goods in which he plans to invest, and of the probable chances for earning profits in the business. This case, where certain goods whose price is known are approximately selected before the money is borrowed for investment, is the type of loan to be kept most usually in mind in economic discussion.