The Online World Part 34

".. by the year 2000 the Internet will consist of some 100 million hosts, 3 million networks, and 1 billion users (close to the current population of the People's Republic of China).

Much of this growth will certainly come from commercial traffic."

We, the users, are the winners. Most online services now understand that global exchange of email is a requirement, and that they must connect to the Internet.

Meanwhile, wild things are taking place in the gra.s.sroots arena:

* Thousands of new bulletin boards are being connected to gra.s.sroots networks like FidoNet (which in turn is connected to the Internet for exchange of mail).

* Thousands of bulletin boards are being hooked directly into the Internet (and Usenet) offering such access to users at stunning rates.

* The BBSes are bringing email up to a new level by letting us use offline readers, and other types of powerful mail handling software.

Email will never be the same.

Cheaper and better communications --------------------------------- During Christmas 1987, a guru said that once the 9600 bps V.32 modems fell below the US$1,200 level, they would create a new standard. Today, such modems can be bought at prices lower than US$200. In many countries, 14,400 bits/s modems are already the preferred choice.

Wild dreams get real -------------------- In the future, we will be able to do several things simultaneously on the same telephone line. This is what the promised land of ISDN (Integrated Service Digital Networks) is supposed to give us.

Some users already have this capability. They write and talk on the same line using pictures, music, video, fax, voice and data.

ISDN is supposed to let us use services that are not generally available today. Here are some key words:

* Chats, with the option of having pictures of the people we are talking to up on our local screen (for example in a window, each time he or she is saying something).

Eventually, we may get the pictures in 3-D.

* Database searches in text and pictures, with displays of both.

* Electronic transfers of video/movies over a telephone line (fractal image compression technology may give us another online revolution). Imagine dances filmed by ethnologists at the Smithsonian Inst.i.tution in Washington, D.C., or an educational film about the laps in northern Norway from an information provider called the Norwegian Broadcasting Corp.

The "Internet Talk Radio" is already delivering programs by anonymous ftp (e.g., through ftp.nau.edu in the directory /talk-radio).

* Online amus.e.m.e.nt parks with group plays, creative offerings (drawing, painting, building of 3-D electronic sculptures), shopping (with "live" people presenting merchandise and good pictures of the offerings, test drives, etc.), casino (with real prizes), theater with live performance, online "dressing rooms" (submit a 2-D picture of yourself, and play with your looks), online car driving schools (drive a car through Tokyo or New York, or go on safari).

The Sierra Network has been playing around with these ideas for quite some time.

* Your favorite books, old as new, available for on-screen reading or searching in full text. Remember, many libraries have no room to store all the new books that they receive.

Also, wear and tear tend to destroy books after some time.

Many books are already available online, including this one.

* Instant access to hundreds of thousands of 'data cottages'.

These are computers in private homes of people around the world set up for remote access. With the technical advances in the art of transferring pictures, some of these may grow to become tiny online "television stations."

These wild ideas are already here, but it will take time before they are generally available. New networks need to be in place. New and more powerful communications equipment has to be provided.

Farther down the road, we can see the contours of speech-based electronic conferences with automatic translation to and from the partic.i.p.ants' languages. Entries will be stored as text in a form that allows for advanced online searching. We may have a choice between the following:

* To use voice when entering messages, rather than entering them through the keyboard. The ability to mix speech, text, sound and pictures (single frames or live pictures).

* Messages are delivered to you by voice, as text or as a combination of these (like in a lecture with visual aids).

* Text and voice can be converted to a basic text, which then may be converted to other languages, and forwarded to its destination as text or voice.

One world --------- Within the Internet, the idea of "the network as one, large computer" has already given birth to many special services, like gopher and WAIS. Potentially, we will be able to find and retrieve information from anywhere on the global grid of connected systems.

Bulletin boards have commenced to offer gra.s.sroots features modeled after telnet and ftp. These alternatives may even end up being better and more productive than the interactive commands offered "inside" the Internet.

The global integration of online services will continue at full speed, and in different ways.

Rates ----- There is a trend away from charging by the minute or hour. Many services convert to subscription prices, a fixed price by the month, quarter or year.

Other services, among them some major database services, move toward a scheme where users only pay for what they get (no cure, no pay). MCI Mail was one of the first. There, you only pay when you send or read mail. On CompuServe's IQuest, you pay a fixed price for a fixed set of search results.

Cheaper transfers of data ------------------------- Privatization of the national telephone monopolies has given us more alternatives. This will continue. Possible scenarios:

* Major companies selling extra capacity from their own internal networks,

* Telecommunications companies exporting their services at extra low prices,

* Other pricing schemes (like a fixed amount per month with unlimited usage),

* New technology (direct transmitting satellites, FM, etc.)

So far, data transporters have been receiving a disproportionate share of the total costs. For example, the rate for accessing CompuServe from Norway through InfoNet is US$11.00, while using the service itself costs US$12.80 at 2400 bps.

Increased global compet.i.tion in data transportation is quickly changing this picture, supported by general access to the Internet.

Prices will most likely continue their dramatic way toward zero.

Powerful new search tools ------------------------- As the sheer quant.i.ty of information expands, the development of adequate finding tools is gaining momentum. Our major problem is how to use what we have access to.

This is especially true on the Internet. Expect future personal information agents, called "knowbots," which will scan databases all over the online world for specific information at a user's bidding. This will make personal knowledge of where you need to go redundant.

Artificial intelligence will increase the value of searches, as they can be based on your personal searching history since your first day as a user.

Your personal information agents will make automatic decisions about what is important and what is not in a query. When you get information back, it will not just be in the normal chronological order. It will be ranked by what seems to be closest to the query.

Sources for future studies -------------------------- It seems appropriate to end this chapter with some online services focusing on the future: Newsbytes has a section called Trends. The topic is computers and communications. ECHO has the free database Trend, the online edition of the Trend Monitor magazine. It contains short stories about the development within electronics and computers (log on to ECHO using the pa.s.sword TREND).

Usenet has the newsgroup clari.news.trends (Surveys and trends). Why not complement what you find here by monitoring trends in a.s.sociated areas (like music), to follow the development from different perspectives? The music forum RockNet on CompuServe has a section called Trends.

CompuServe's Education Forum has the section Future Talk. What educators think about the future of online services (and education) is always interesting. The Well, based just outside Silicon Valley in the United States, has The Future conference.

UUCP has info-futures. Its purpose is "to provide a speculative forum for a.n.a.lyzing current and likely events in technology as they will affect our near future in computing and related areas."

(Contact: [email protected] for subscription.) Usenet has comp.society.futures about "Events in technology affecting future computing."

It is tempting to add a list of conferences dedicated to science fiction, but I'll leave that pleasure to you.

Have a nice trip!

Appendix 1: List of selected online services ============================================

To make a list of online services is difficult. Services come and go. Addresses and access numbers are constantly changed. Only one thing is certain. Some of the details below will be outdated, when you read this.

Affaersdata i Stockholm AB ------------------------- P.O. Box 3188, S-103 63 Stockholm, Sweden. Tel.: + 46 8 736 59 19.

America Online -------------- has the CNN Newsroom (Turner Educational Services), The Washington Post, the National Geographic magazine, PC World and Macworld. AOL has tailor-made graphical user interfaces for Apple, Macintosh, and PC compatible computers, and about 300.000 users (in June 1993).

Sending and receiving Internet mail is possible.

Contact: America Online, 8619 Westwood Center Dr., Vienna, VA 22182-2285, USA. Phone: +1-703-448-8700.

APC --- The a.s.sociation for Progressive Communications (APC) is a worldwide partnership of member networks for peace and environmental users with host computers in several countries:

Alternex (Brazil). Email: [email protected] Chasque (Uruguay). Email: [email protected] ComLink e.V (Germany). Email: [email protected] Ecuanex (Ecuador). Email: [email protected] GlasNet (Russia). Email: [email protected] GreenNet (England). Email: [email protected] Inst.i.tute for Global Communications (U.S.A.), includes EcoNet, PeaceNet, ConflictNet, LaborNet.