Principles of Political Economy Part 36

From 36 to | | | | 45 years | 161 | 191 | 129 |{ 183 per 1,000 males.

After their | | | |{ 45th year | 61 | 75 | 48 |{ 150 per 1,000 females.

But it must not be overlooked here, that the Flemish provinces of Belgium had been for a long time in a sad economic condition. (_Horn_, Studien, I, 75 ff.) No less characteristic of the well-being of a people and their providence in entering into the married state is the relative age at which they contract marriage. If we divide ages into four cla.s.ses (up to the 30th year, between 31 and 45, between 46 and 60, and after 60), we find, for instance, that from 1841 to 1845, there were in West Flanders 585 per 1,000 marriages between persons of the same age-cla.s.s, 305 in which the husband, and 110 in which the wife belonged to an older cla.s.s; in Namur, on the other hand, 683, 234 and 83. In dear years, the relative number of marriages between persons belonging to different age-cla.s.ses, and the relative difference in age of parties to the marriage contract increases.

And so, the frequency of second marriages of widows and widowers is no favorable symptom of the facility of founding a family. Naturally every woman prefers a man who was never married before to a widower; and every man a maiden to a widow; but where there is a want of room to establish a new household, the possession of such one by a widower may readily preponderate over all counter considerations. Thus, for instance, in the Flemish provinces of Belgium, of 1,000 widowers, from 365 to 395 marry again; in the Wallonic, only from 293 to 308. Of 1,000 brides, 98 are widows in West Flanders, and in Namur, 41. A similar proportion in Bavaria between the Palatinate and the hither-districts. (_Hermann_, Bewegung der Bevolkerung in Bayern, p. 14.) The less the frequency of marriage in general, the greater is the relative probability of second marriage for widows and widowers; and hence, in years of scarcity, the latter relatively increase. (_Horn_, Studien, I, 201 ff.) Sometimes this increase is absolute: in Austria, during the cheap year 1852, there were 231,900 marriages between persons never before married, and 85,000 in which at least one of the contracting parties had been married before. On the other hand, during the dear year 1855, there were only 156,000 of the former and 89,000 of the latter. Something a.n.a.logous, observed in antiquity. (_Pausan._, II, 21, 8; X, 38, 6; _Propert._, II, 11, 36.) _Tacitus_, Germ., 19, describes the moral feelings of the ancient Germans as averse to the second marriage of widows, and he apparently approves it.]

[Footnote 247-5: In 19 European countries, with an aggregate population of 121,000,000, the number of the married amounted to an average of 34.88 per cent. of the whole population. France is at the head with 38.94 per cent.

(1866), even 40.5. In these countries, of all adults, there is a percentage of 65.98 who marry. France is here, also, at the head, with a percentage of 73.58. And the number of the unmarried has continually decreased in post-revolutionary France. In 1806, there were only 35.84 per cent. of the population married. (_Wappaus_, A. Bevolk erungsstatistik, II, 219, 223, 229.) In relation also to the frequency of first marriages and of marriage at the proper age, France is the best situated country. (_Haushofer_, Lehr- und Handbuch der Statistik, 40 ff.) But at the same time, in what concerns the fruitfulness of marriage, it is the farthest behind; and since 1780 prolificacy has continually decreased there. Thus, 1800-1815, 3.93 legitimate children to a marriage; 1856-60, only 3.03; 1861-6, again 3.08. (_Legoyt_ in the Journal des Econ. Oct. 1870, 28.) How little this depends upon physiological causes may be inferred from the fact that _Strabo_ commends the women of the Gallic race for their peculiar adaptability to bearing and rearing children.

(IV, 178, 196.) The "prudential checks" must play a princ.i.p.al part in producing a low birth rate. (Statist.

Journal, 1866, 262), as we find in France

============================================================ | _Yearly per 100_ | | _inhabitants._ | _Women who marry_ _In_ +------------------------+ _before their 25th_ |_Marriages._| _Births._ | _year_.

--------------+------------+-----------+-------------------- Brittany, | 7.0 | 29.8 | 42.7 per cent.

Adour, | 6.9 | 25.0 | 47.3 "

Lower Garonne,| 8.3 | 22.0 | 59.7 "

Upper Seine | 8.0 | 23.7 | 60.0 "

That, however, the shorter duration and smaller fruitfulness of marriage by no means necessarily accompany one another, France also proves, since it possesses the longer average duration of marriage: 26.4 years against 20.7 in Prussia.

(_Wappaus_, II, 311, 315.)]

[Footnote 247-6: The proportion of the married to the whole population declined in Prussia from 35.09 in 1816, to 33.09 per cent. in 1852; in Sweden, from 36.41 in 1751 to 32.59 per cent. in 1855; in Norway, from 37.60 per cent. in 1769 to 32.21 per cent. in 1855; in Saxony, from 35.52 per cent.

in 1834, to 34.98 per cent. in 1849. (_Wappaus_, II, 229.) If all who are at least 20 years of age be considered competent to marry, there are of every 1,000 thus competent in Belgium, 520 actually married; in the Flemish provinces alone, 489; in the most favorably situated Wallonic, 554.

(_Horn_, Bevolk. Studien, I, 139 ff.) In Rome, under Augustus, the proportion was much less satisfactory. In the higher cla.s.ses, a large majority did not marry at all.

(_Dio. Ca.s.s._, I, VI, 1.)]

[Footnote 247-7: In Halle, in 1700, there was one marriage for every 77 of the population; in 1715, for every 99; in 1735, for every 140; in 1755, for every 167. In Leipzig, in 1620, there was one for every 82; 1741-1756, for every 118; 1868, for every 92.8. In Augsburg, 1510, one in 86; in 1610, in 108; in 1660, in every 101; in 1750, in every 123. The provinces of Magdeburg, Halberstadt, Cleve, Mark, Munden, Brandenburg, Pomerania and Prussia had, about the end of the seventeenth century, one marriage per annum for every 76-95 of the population; the Prussian monarchy, 1822-1828, one marriage for every 109-121. Compare _Sussmilch_ Gottl.

Ordnung, I., 131, ff., _Schubert_ Staatskunde des preuss.

Staates I., 364. In France, 1801-1805, there was one marriage per annum in every 137 living; in 1821-5, for every 129; in 1831-35, for every 127; in 1842-51, for every 125.39; in 1860, for every 124.7.]

[Footnote 247-8: In Prussia, in 1849, there were in every one hundred families in the cities, 492 individuals; in the country, 512. In Belgium, in 1846, 459 and 497 respectively.

(_Horn_, Bevolk. Studien, I, 88, ff.) In France, in 1853, in the cities, 358; in Paris alone, 299. In the Zollverein, the number of individuals in a family increased in 1852-55, 5.81 per cent.; the population only 3.02 per cent.; the population of those over fourteen years of age, by 4.41 per cent.; of minors by 1.02 per cent. Only in Saxony and the cities of Hanover was the reverse the case. (_v. Viebahn_, II, 278, seq.)]

[Footnote 247-9: Thus, for instance, in Belgium, for every 100 households, there are 74 marriages; in the cities of Belgium, 70; in the Belgian country parishes, 75; in Prussia in 1849, 84. (_Horn_, I, 93 seq.) It is estimated that in Prussia, only 3 per cent. of the adult population live outside of the family. (_Viebahn_, II, 273.)]

[Footnote 247-10: It is strange that _Sussmilch_, Gottl.

Ordnung, I, -- 13, considers mortality an unalterable law, while he fully recognizes the social grounds which caused the frequency and prolificacy of marriages to vary (I, -- 56, 99).]

SECTION CCXLVIII.

HISTORY OF POPULATION.--NUMBER OF BIRTHS AND DEATHS.

So far as the mere number of the population is concerned, it is obviously a matter of indifference whether there are annually 1,000 births and 800 deaths, or 2,000 births and 1,800 deaths. But we see in the former an element of higher civilization,[248-1] especially, on account of the conditions which determine it. It can occur only where even the most numerous, that is the lower cla.s.s, feel other wants than those of the mere means of existence and of the satisfaction of the s.e.xual instinct: wants, duties which probably could not be satisfied in a state of marriage thoughtlessly entered into; where the virtues both of foresight and self-control are very generally practiced.

And then let us consider the consequences. The efficacy of the repressive hinderances to over-population either consists in immoral acts or easily leads to immorality. Until a "surplus" child has died, what a series of troubles for good parents, and what a chain of evil deeds for bad ones, to say nothing of the poor child itself.

Further, every man, no matter how short or long his life, requires a large advance of capital and trouble which he has later to return to society through the activity of his riper years. If he dies before his maturity, this advance has been made in vain. The more, therefore, the population of a country, in order to maintain itself within the bounds of its field of food, has to calculate on the death of children, the greater is this loss.[248-2] Hence, from a national-economic point of view, it is to be considered a great advance, that in England in 1780, there was one death among its people under 20 years of age in every 76 of the population, in 1801, in every 96, in 1830, in every 124, in 1833, one only in every 137. (_Porter._) Lastly, the longer the average duration of life of a child the greater, other circ.u.mstances remaining the same, the number of grown people as compared with that of the children; but grown people are, as a rule, independent, capable of self-defense, economically productive, competent to discharge all the rights and duties of citizenship, while children are dependent, incapable of self-defense, unproductive, immature. Only he who knows the relative numbers of the different age-cla.s.ses of a nation can draw fruitful conclusions from the data per capita relating to taxation, from the statistics of crime, suicides, illegitimate births, of school-children, etc., or judge correctly of a locality's military contingent.[248-3] [248-4] Here, indeed, it should not be overlooked that in the highest age-cla.s.ses, human beings return in many respects to the helplessness of childhood. Yet, as a rule, to reach a good old age is generally considered a personal good fortune; and the existence of a great many aged persons in a country, if not in itself an advantageous element in its economy, may, nevertheless, be called a pleasing symptom.[248-5] On an average there is only one person over sixty to every twelve under fifteen years of age. (_J. G. Hoffmann._) We may, hence, readily measure what an advantage France possesses in this, that in 1861, in every 1,000 inhabitants, only 273 were under fifteen years of age, 524 between sixteen and fifty, the most vigorous years of life, and 203 over fifty years old. The average age of the French population was 31.06 years against 27.22 in Sardinia and 25.32 in Ireland.

However, a positively unfavorable conclusion from a relatively large number of children in a nation should not be drawn except in the case of a people the limits of whose field of food cannot be extended. (-- 239.) Where the nation's economy has a rapid growth, as for instance in young colonies, the comparatively easy rearing of children which there obtains, without any corresponding mortality, is not so much considered a burthen[248-6] as a symptom of their good fortune and even a positive good.[248-7] On the other hand, of the Belgian provinces, for instance, suffering Flanders had relatively the smallest number of children, because it had the largest child-mortality.[248-8]

Almost all the signs which, according to the above paragraphs, distinguish a higher stage of civilization from a lower, may be shown within the limits of the same age and nation to characterize the upper cla.s.ses as compared with the lower. We may even claim that the greater foresight and self-control of the former in the matter of marriage and in the procreation of children, since the abolition of the greater number of legal advantages of cla.s.s, are by far the most important of the elements const.i.tuting their superiority over the latter. The word proletariat, from _proles_, means first of all, having many children (_Vielkinderei_)!

[Footnote 248-1: _J. Moser_ did not even dream of this.

Patr. Phant., I, 15.]

[Footnote 248-2: _Rossi_, Cours d'Economie politique, I, 371, estimates the cost of bringing up a child to its 16th year at a minimum of 1,000 francs. Hence, a country with 1,000,000 births annually, in which only 50 per cent. reach that age, would lose 500,000,000 francs per annum. However, over one-third of the children in question die in the first years of childhood, and the rest do not reach on an average their 16th year, but die between the age of 7 and 8: _Bernouilli_, Populationistik, 259. _Engel_ estimates Saxony's "man-capital" at 4 times the value of all the land in the country, and at 10 times the value of all movable property. (Sachs., Statist. Zeitschr., 1855, No. 9. Preuss.

Statist. Zeitschr., 1861, 324.) One of the chief advocates of the view that there is an investment of capital in every child is _Chadwick_ in the opening address delivered by him before an English learned society at Cambridge: Statist.

Journal, Dec., 1862. Lancashire alone pays a penalty per annum for preventable deaths of 4,000,000, for the funeral and medical expenses; to say nothing of the capital lost (506).]

[Footnote 248-3: _Bernouilli_, Populationistik, 51 ff.

_Quetelet_, Recherches statist. sur le Royaume des Pays-Bas, 1827, 1, 9, and Du Systeme social, 1848, 176 ff., specially called attention to the important differences in this relation, between the productive and unproductive years of life. Thus it should not be forgotten, when reading of the greater mortality of the poor quarters of Paris, that strangers who are for the most part in the vigorous years of life, live there least of all.]

[Footnote 248-4: In Russia, it seems that only 36 per cent.

of all those born outlive their 20th year; in England, 55 per cent. (_Porter_, Progress, ch. I, 29.) The Russian peasants are said to have from 10 to 12 children, only about one-third of whom grow to maturity, (_v. Haxthausen_, I, 128.) In the United States, the population was in 1820 divided into two nearly equal parts as to age, the 16th year of age forming the dividing point; in England the same was the case, only the dividing point was 20 years of age.

(_Tucker_, Progress of the United States, 16, 63.)]

[Footnote 248-5: There were in

--------------------------------------------------------------- |_Years._|_From 0 to_ |_From 16 to_ | _Over 50_ | | _15 years_ | _50 years_ | _years_ | | _of age._ | _of age._ | _of age._ --------------------------------------------------------------- | | Per 1,000 | Per 1,000 | Per 1,000 | | of the pop.| of the pop. | of the pop.

| | | | Belgium, | 1846 | 323 | 509 | 168 Prussia, | 1849 | 370 | 504 | 126 Great Britain,| 1851 | 354 | 504 | 142 Holland, | 1849 | 333 | 509 | 158 Saxony, | 1840 | 339 | 505 | 156 Sweden, | 1850 | 328 | 511 | 161 ---------------------------------------------------------------

In Great Britain, the census of 1851 gave 596,030 persons over 70 years of age; 9,847, over 90; 2,038, over 95; 319, over 100 years of age. (Athen., 12 Aug., 1854.) In France, in 1851, there were 1,319,960 persons seventy years of age and over. In the United States the population of--

---------------------------------------------------------------- | _Per English_ | _Relative number of | _square mile._ | _children under ten | | _years._ ---------------------------------------------------------------- | 1800 | 1840 | 1800 | 1840 ------------------------|--------------------------------------- | | | per cent. | per cent.

New England, | 19.2 | 34.8 | 63.5 | 51.1 The Middle States, | 15.3 | 43.6 | 70.7 | 55.7 The Southern States, | 8.9 | 15.9 | 73.0 | 67.8 The Southwestern States,| 1.3 | 13.7 | 77.6 | 75.5 The Northwestern States,| 2.3 | 25.5 | 84.9 | 73.8 ----------------------------------------------------------------

In the whole Union, in 1830, the age cla.s.ses up to 20 years embraced 56.12 per cent. of the population; in 1840, 54.62 per cent; in 1850, 51.85 per cent. Compare _Horn_, Bevolk.

Studien, I, 126; _Wappaus_, A. Bevolk. Stat., II, 44, 125 ff., 88; _Tucker_, Progress of the United States, 105.]

[Footnote 248-6: As _Wappaus_ says that in America an equal number of adults must work for at least a third larger number of children than in Europe: "a much more unfavorable situation, so far as production-force is concerned." (A.

Bevolk. St., II, 44.)]

[Footnote 248-7: _Horn_, I, 127 ff. The Becoming is not only more pleasant than the Having become, but it may even stand higher in so far as the latter consists only in being resigned to further development.]

[Footnote 248-8: _Les mendiants sont dans le cas des peuples naissants_ etc. _Montesquieu_, E. der Lois, LXXIII, 11. In England and Wales in 1851-60, there died yearly before their sixth year, 7.24 per cent. of all male children born, but in the families of peers, only 2.22 per cent. (Stat. Journal, Sept., 1865.) If we grade the quarters of the city of Berlin according to the well-being of their inhabitants, we find that in the lower, the number of married men between 18 and 25 years is successively greater 1.1, 1.4, 2.4 and 3.4 per cent. (_Schwabe_, Volkszahlung von, 1871, 24.)]

SECTION CCXLIX.

HISTORY OF POPULATION.--IN PERIODS OF DECLINE.

Nations involved in political and religious decline are wont to lose the moral foundation of the situation last described. Here, therefore, again, both the repressive (which are almost always immoral) tendencies counter to over-population, and the viciously preventive occupy the most prominent place. We may most completely observe this spectacle among the heathen nations of later antiquity. But, unfortunately, even among modern nations, we find some a.n.a.logies to the ancient, to which the political economist may point with the finger of warning. "For unto every one that hath shall be given, and he shall have abundance; but from him that hath not shall be taken away even that which he hath."

This universally applicable truth explains the fact that all successive acts of immorality, the more frequently they occur the less severely are they branded by public opinion.

A. We are not warranted, from the relative[249-1] number of illegitimate births, to draw too direct an inference in relation to the morality of a people. Where, for instance, as in the kingdom of Saxony, the annual frequency of marriage was 0.017 of the population, every illegitimate birth bears evidence of a greater absence of self control than in Bavaria, where, on every one thousand living, there were only thirteen marriages a year.[249-2] In many quarters, where the economic relations are very stable, and where peasant estates (_geschlossene Bauerguter_) are subject to a species of entailing, where consequently the son can engage in marriage only after the death of the father, illegitimate children are in great part legitimatized by subsequent marriage at a later time, and meanwhile brought up in the family of the mother like legitimate children.[249-3] Evidently the guilty inconstancy creative of ephemeral _liaisons_, and the neglect of the children born of them, do not here produce the sad effects which they are wont to in the large cities, where illegitimate relations are made and dissolved with shocking rapidity. However, births are seldom heard of in the case of ruined debauchees.