India 2020 Part 4

Microelectronics and computer technologies: accelerate the development of micron and submicron silicon integrated circuits design, manufacturing, and testing centers and optelectronic integration technologies super highperformance parallel computers and commercial software engineering new generation computers artificial intelligence robotics technology.

Use of biotechnology as a powerful means of addressing food, health, resources, environmental, and other major problems.

Advanced materials technology to make breakthroughs and to bring about fundamental changes.

Aeros.p.a.ce technology: manned s.p.a.ce flight and maintaining an international position in the field.

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Develop a network of gas pipelines to meet growing energy demand.

Source energy supplies overseas.

As is seen in the later chapters of this book, there are a number of common element in the Chinese longterm plans and the vision that has emerged for India, though these have been arrived at independently of each other.

j.a.pan In many ways, j.a.pan can be considered the country that has pioneered the systematization of a longterm technological vision of the country as whole, and translated its vision into reality through trading agencies, industry, laboratories, universities, financial inst.i.tutions and government agencies. The j.a.panese science & Technology Agency has perfected various surveying techniques to a.s.sess what the j.a.panese experts forecast as future events and possibilities for a period of twenty five years. Starting with the years from 1970 to '95, there is to be a revision every five years. The latest doc.u.ment available is 'The Fifth Technology Forecast Survey : Future Technology in j.a.pan Towards the year 2020' by the National Inst.i.tute of Science and Technology Policy / Science and Technology Agency (j.a.pan) and the inst.i.tute for Future Technology. It divides technological areas into the following broad headings (sec table 2.1, below): TABLE 2.1.

Materials and information and life science outer s.p.a.ce Processing electronics Particles Marine science mineral and energy and earth science water resources Environment Agriculture, Production Urbana forestry, and nation and fisheries construction Communications Transportation Health and Lifestyles medical care and culture

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The technological possibilities, mostly given as a defined end result or applications, are listed with figures indicating the probable year of occurrence, as per the a.n.a.lyses of expert opinions. The flatness or sharpness of the graphs indicates whether the expert opinions vary significantly or are nearly unanimous. These forecasts, methodologies for which have been perfected over more than two decades, are very strongly oriented in terms of j.a.pan's domestic consumption or external trade. These national level forecasts are internalized in many businesses, industries and inst.i.tutions to underpin their plans of action. It is remarkable that the nation is geared at various levels to be ready for meeting the challenges of the future as envisioned by exports.

If we look at the case of j.a.pan, there are many indices through which j.a.panese growth can be judged and depicted. These are the GNP, GDP or per capita export growth. This Growth has been achieved in a short period, a testimony to the j.a.panese vision . An important element which has been both the cause as well as the effect of j.a.pan's grand vision, is the ability to deal with technologies. j.a.pan made development of internal capability for technologies an essential component in every part of its vision.

In the sixties, the j.a.panese were not technological leaders. In fact, j.a.panese products during that period were known more for their poor quality. The country had to import technologies in a major way. But the j.a.panese made it a point, mostly through voluntary action by their industries and government agencies, to invest about four times more towards their own technology development for every unit of money they spent in importing technology. This was meant to develop internal technological core competencies in their industries and inst.i.tutions. Over a period of about two decades they have reached the status of a net exporter of technology and become one of the world's great economic powers, though their own natural resources are practically negligible in most sectors.

As shown in figure 2.1, in 1975, j.a.pan's bill for import of technologies was close to 20 billion yen, and receipts of money through

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export of technology was around 5 billion yen. j.a.pan had a deficit of about 15 billion yen in technology trade in1975. imports increased as the economy was growing . but its export of technology began to increase much faster, especially from 198687 onwards so much so that in 1995 j.a.panese export of technologies amounted to 56.22 billion yen, and imports stood at 39.17 billion yen. As indicated in figure 2.2, after a few ups and down, j.a.pan has had a continuous trade surplus in technology since 1993. in fact, it did achieve a trade surplus a few years earlier, but it fell subsequently. Then exports and imports become equal. Now, they have achieved a very clear margin of exports over imports.

Their strategy for exportimport is not just one to one. When they import from a country, they do not necessarily have to export back to the

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same country in the same mode, because a vision should also have a certain realism. Their long term goal was to become a net exporter of technology. Realizing that they were not ahead in many areas in the 1960s and '70s, j.a.pan's strategy was to export to countries less developed than it and to import from countries which were more developed, to continue to use them, improve upon them and export product to the advanced countries as well. In terms of technologies, the j.a.panese were able to export to countries which were relatively less developed. In this process they managed to become overall exporters of technologies. But now, that is not enough for j.a.pan: this nation always keeps aiming higher.

Recently the naval chief, who visited j.a.pan and South Korea, explained to me that the j.a.panese have as part of their vision the aim to equal and surpa.s.s the United States in all aspects, whether it is in the generation and export of technologies or in the quality of life. Similarly, the Koreans confided to him that they would like to equal and surpa.s.s the j.a.panese!

How did j.a.pan achieve this status? Not overnight, but over about two decades, with large team in industries, laboratories, government, financial inst.i.tutions, users, and consumers holding steadfast to their vision of a developed j.a.pan and working hard to ensure that the vision was realized.

This vision was shared by politicians, administrators, diplomats, businessmen, scientists, engineers, technicians, bankers and people from several other occupations. Whenever a j.a.panese agency or industry imported a technology, they did not rest in peace. They worked hard to understand it and to

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improve upon it. In the process they spent almost four times as much as the value of imported technology in generating their own technologies, because they knew that a developed j.a.pan could become a reality only when it was technologically component and when it could develop its designs. The results are before us: a country divested by war and two nuclear bombs, and subjected to humiliating conditions after the second World war, is now accepted as one of the world's seven most powerful countries. j.a.pan has very limited natural resources and was restricted in its attempts to acquire military strength. It has won through a technological race, inspired by a vision.

Other countries in the world have begun to emulate the j.a.panese example by developing core competencies in technologies to use as compet.i.tive tools in business.

Even a powerful nation like the USA is often obsessed with containing j.a.pan in trade and business.

For example, US businesses, which are ferociously independent and recent joint actions with the government, came together in 1991 under the council of Compet.i.tiveness. In its report, Gaining New ground: Technology Priorities for America's Future, the council noted that' this project was characterized by uncommon cooperation and involvement on the part of public and private sectors '. The council conducted an in

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depth a.n.a.lysis of nine major technology intensive industries: aeros.p.a.ce, chemicals and allied products, computers and software, construction, drugs and pharmaceuticals, electronic components and equipment, machine tools, motor vehicles and telecommunications. Together, these sectors account for more than $11 trillion in sales and directly employ twelve million people. They have attempted to look 'beyond the parochial interest of each sector in the national interest '.

The' remarkable consensus' for the first time between America's corporate, academic and the labor leaders' underscores a crucial point in the technology debate: the US needs to move beyond simply making lists. Instead, America needs a pragmatic plan for joint public and private sector action. The report compares j.a.pan and Europe with the US and derives a plan for compet.i.tion. It clearly acknowledges the lead of j.a.pan in a number of areas in commercially viable technologies. Such is the power of j.a.pan's commitment to concerned action as regards its technology vision for more than three decades.

A 1997 doc.u.ment by keidarnan (j.a.pan Federation of Economic Organizations) describes 'an attractive j.a.pan', 'a perceived by people around the world as a good place to live, do business and study'. The report also states that 'we must understand that j.a.pan's future depends on the progress of science and technology'. We have a lot to learn from j.a.pan's dedicated and sustained efforts in achieving technological excellence and leadership.

South Korea About three decades ago, South Korea was not even considered a force to contend with. Korea received some attention during the Korean war in the 1950s and was generally forgotten soon after. The country has suffered extensive damage while it was occupied by j.a.pan during the Second World War. It was considered by many nations, including India, to be a country so poor that there was no hope for it. It also suffered a part.i.tion. Despite this, South. Korea created a vision by which it became a major global player in a few years in some major economic sectors that used modern technologies.

These were steel production, shipbuilding, automobiles and electronics. There were many western economics who thought that this was a wrong strategy, because the country did not have a natural core competence in any of these areas. But South Korea was a nation

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with a will. It did achieve success in all these areas. South Koreans have gone on to become formidable multinationals in these areas as well as in several others. In electronics, South Koreans still use the 'reverse entry' technique in various areas. That is, they use themselves as manufacturing base initially, and then use a few selected technologies of their own to create the subsequent models. And they have invested in R&D, enabling them to make major contributions in some areas. Such as electronics.

Their quality of life has improved tremendously over two decades, and per capita income has risen to about US$ 10000 .

Koreans from an earlier generation recall that about two or three decades ago discussions around the dining table were confined to the food they ate in the morning or at lunch or what was planned to be cooked later. Food was scarce, and a meal or some good food served as a strong incentive for most people. Just to be able to have three solid meals a day was a great achievement in that area. South Koreans have now gone well past that stage. Food is no longer a major point of discussion with them: now it is the globehow many more successes they can achievement. Considerable funds are devoted to research and development expenditure in industries. They have design capabilities in many areas. The authors are aware of some of the recent problems in South Korea. But the core strengths of South Korean technologies are so high that the country should be able to overcome these problems soon.

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Israel Another interesting country is Israel. It was born as a nation in 1948, under very difficult circ.u.mstances. Israelis were not just satisfied with having a home of their own. They had

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a further satisfied with having a home of their own. They had a further vision: to be able to meet not only their immediate food and water requirements, but also those of the future. They wanted food and water security, in a place which was a desert. Water was scarce. They were surrounded by hostile nations, and had very little by way of natural resources. They were a small country too. Yet they not only had a vision for food security, but also aimed to become a leader in agrofood products and set standards in terms of productivity, yield or even in absolute production in many items of food, be it milk or fruit or other commodities. They did deploy a larger amount of technology in this venture, leading to Israel being today a leader in agriculture and agrofood related technologies. Figure 2.3 compares the milk yield of different countries. For annual milk yield per head of cattle, Israel's figure for 1994 is about 9200 kg. The runnerup is the US with about 7000 kg per head of cattle ore year. In India the figure is only about 500.

Israel did not stop merely at food security in food and agriculture. It needed defence. They have remarkable capability in defence and military equipment, including missiles. They sought nuclear, s.p.a.ce and electronics capability, and no have several excellent products and technologies. Israel is globally acknowledged as a technological, military and economic power. That is due to its longterm vision and sustained action.

We are not alone inn thinking of a vision for 2020. Many others are thinking of their future, and are striving hard to make a better future, and are striving hard to the grater emphasis on technological strengths in multiple areas such as manufacturing, advanced materials, electronics and information technologies. In addition, these countries technologies. In China, USA and Europe there is a continued thrust for advancement of defence technologies. China's approach to agriculture has common features with that of India. USA, Europe and j.a.pan place much greater emphasis on biotechnology with global markets in view. The vision that emerges for India is based on the perceptions of its security environment, its social and economic needs as well as ab eas.e.m.e.nt of its core strengths. It is a vision for our people. Let us not leave millions of our sisters and brothers in poverty any longer. We should wipe out poverty by 2010 and become a developed nation by 2020.

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Chapter 3.

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Evolution of Technology Vision 2020 India's Core Competencies Your country, brother, shall be your love!

Good unto better you shall improve!

Great deeds indeed are needed now!

Work hard, work long in farm and honey!

Let the land be abundant in milk and honey!

Flood the land with goods, all made at home!

Spread your handiwork all over the world!

Are you a patriot ? Do not shout it aloud!

Bragging never did anybody any good!

Quietly, d oak fine deed instead!

Let the people see it, it is they that decide!

_Desha bhakti by Gurajada Translated from Telugu by Sri Sri Mahakavi In the preIndependence days, India had many dreamers many capable women and men thinking of a strong and modern India. Many of them took the initiative in various fields, political, social, economic, industrial, educational, literary, scientific, engineering and the religious. They enriched India by their actions, and reflected different facets of our independence struggle. Independent India was enriched by this inheritance.

Added to this was the fact that India had richer natural resources as compared to many other countries. These perceptions led to the pa.s.sionate call for building a great nation.

After independence, India made simultaneous progress in many fields: agriculture, health, education, infrastructure, science and technology, among others. Her vibrant