Essays on Mankind and Political Arithmetic Part 7

1. The number of houses which were burnt A.D. 1666, which by authentic report was 13,200; next what proportion the people who died out of those houses, bore to the whole; which I find A.D. 1686, to be but one seventh part, but A.D. 1666 to be almost one-fifth, from whence I infer the whole housing of London A.D. 1666 to have been 66,000, then finding the burials A.D. 1666 to be to those of 1686 as 3 to 4,I pitch upon 88,000 to be the number of housing A.D.

1686.

2. Those who have been employed in making the general map of London, set forth in the year 1682, told me that in that year they had found above 84,000 houses to be in London, wherefore A.D. 1686, or in four years more, there might be one-tenth or 8,400 houses more (London doubling in forty years) so as the whole, A.D. 1686 might be 92,400.

3. I found that A.D. 1685, there were 29,325 hearths in Dublin, and 6,400 houses, and in London 388 thousand hearths, whereby there must have been at that rate 87,000 houses in London. Moreover I found that in Bristol there were in the same year 16,752 hearth; and 5,307 houses, and in London 388,000 hearths as aforesaid; at which rate there must have been 123,000 houses in London, and at a medium between Dublin and Bristol proportions 105,000 houses.

Lastly, by certificate from the hearth office, I find the houses within the bills of mortality to be 105,315.

Having thus found the houses, I proceed next to the number of families in them, and first I thought that if there were three or four families or kitchens in every house of Paris, there might be two families in one-tenth of the housing of London; unto which supposition, the common opinion of several friends doth concur with my own conjectures.

As to the number of heads in each family, I stick to Grant's observation in page --- of his fifth edition, that in tradesmen of London's families there be eight heads one with another, in families of higher ranks, above ten, and in the poorest near live, according to which proportions, I had upon another occasion pitched the medium of heads in all the families of England to be six and one-third, but quitting the fraction in this case, I agree with Monsieur Auzout for six.

To conclude, the houses of London being 105,315 and the addition of double families 10,531 more, in all 115,846; I multiplied the same by six, which produced 695,076 for the number of the people.

The Second Way.

I found that the years 1684 and 1685, being next each other, and both healthful, did wonderfully agree in their burials, viz., 1684 they were 23,202, and A.D. 1685 23,222, the medium whereof is 23,212; moreover that the christenings 1684 were 14,702, and those A.D. 1685 were 14,730, wherefore I multiplied the medium of burials 23,212 by 30, supposing that one dies out of 30 at London, which made the number of people 696,360 souls.

Now to prove that one dies out of 30 at London or thereabouts, I say -

1. That Grant in the --- page of his fifth edition, affirmeth from observation, that 3 died of 88 per annum which is near the same proportion.

2. I found that out of healthful places, and out of adult persons, there dies much fewer, as but one out of 50 among our parliament men, and that the kings of England having reigned 24 years one with another, probably lived above 30 years each.

3. Grant, page --- hath shown that but about one of 20 die per annum out of young children under 10 years old, and Monsieur Auzout thinks that but 1 of 40 die at Rome, out of the greater proportion of adult persons there, wherefore we still stick as a medium to the number 30.

4. In nine country parishes lying in several parts of England, I find that but one of 37 hath died per annum, or 311 out of 11,507, wherefore till I see another round number, grounded upon many observations, nearer than 30, I hope to have done pretty well in multiplying our burials by 30 to find the number of the people, the product being 696,360, and what we find by the families they are 695,076, as aforesaid.

The Third Way.

It was proved by Grant, that one-fifth of the people died of the plague, but A.D. 1665 there died of the plague near 98,000 persons, the quintuple whereof is 490,000 as the number of people in the year 1665, whereunto adding above one-third, as the increase between 1665 and 1686, the total is 653,000, agreeing well enough with the other two computations above mentioned.

Wherefore let the proportion of 1 to 30 continue till a better be put in its place.

Memorandum. That two or three hundred new houses would make a contiguity of two or three other great parishes, with the 134 already mentioned in the bills of mortality: and that an oval wall of about twenty miles in compa.s.s would enclose the same, and all the shipping at Deptford and Blackwall, and would also fence in 20,000 acres of land, and lay the foundation or designation of several vast advantages to the owners, and inhabitants of that ground, as also to the whole nation and government.

THE FOURTH ESSAY.

Concerning the proportions of People in the eight eminent Cities of Christendom undernamed, viz.:-

1. We have by the number of burials in healthful years, and by the proportion of the living to those who die yearly, as also by the number of houses and families within the 134 parishes called London, and the estimate of the heads in each, pitched upon the number of people in that city to be at a medium 695,718.

2. We have, by allowing that at Paris above 80,000 families, viz., 81,280, do live in 23,223 houses, 32 palaces, and 38 colleges, or that there are 81,280 kitchens within less than 24,000 street doors; as also by allowing 30 heads for every one that died necessarily there; we have pitched upon the number of people there at a medium to be 488,055, nor have we restrained them to 300,000, by allowing with Monsieur Auzout 6 heads for each of Moreri's 50,000 houses or families.

3. To Amsterdam we allow 187,350 souls, viz., 30 times the number of their burials, which were 6,245 in the year 1685.

4. To Venice we allow 134,000 souls, as found there in a special account taken by authority, about ten years since, when the city abounded with such as returned from Candia, then surrendered to the Turks.

5. To Rome we allow 119,000 Christians, and 6,000 Jews, in all 125,000 souls, according to an account sent thither of the same by Monsieur Auzout.

6. To Dublin we allow (as to Amsterdam) 30 times its burials, the medium whereof for the last two years is 2,303, viz., 69,090 souls.

7. As to Bristol, we say that if the 6,400 houses of Dublin give 69,090 people, that the 5,307 houses of Bristol must give above 56,000 people. Moreover, if the 29,325 hearths of Dublin give 69,090 people, the 16,752 hearths of Bristol must give about 40,000; but the medium of 56,000 and 40,000 is 48,000.

8. As for Rouen, we have no help, but Monsieur Auzout's fancy of 80,000 souls to be in that city, and the conjecture of knowing men that Rouen is between the one-seventh and one-eighth part of Paris, and also that it is by a third bigger than Bristol; by all which, we estimate, till farther light, that Rouen hath at most but 66,000 people in it.

Now it may be wondered why we mentioned Rouen at all, having had so little knowledge of it; whereunto we answer, that we did not think it just to compare London with Paris, as to shipping and foreign trade, without adding Rouen thereunto, Rouen being to Paris as that part of London which is below the bridge, is to what is above it.

All which we heartily submit to the correction of the curious and candid, in the meantime observing according to the gross numbers under-mentioned.

London 696,000 Paris 488,000 Amsterdam 187,000 Venice 134,000 Rome 125,000 Dublin 69,000 Bristol 48,000 Rouen 66,000

Observations on the said Eight Cities.

1. That the people of Paris being 488,000 Rome 125,000 Rouen 66,000 do make in all but 679,000

or 17,000 less than the 696,000 of London alone.

2. That the people of the two English cities and emporiums--viz., of London, 696,000, and Bristol, 48,000--do make 744,000, or more than

In Paris 488,000 Amsterdam 187,090 Rouen 66,000 Being in all 741,000

3. That the same two English cities seem equivalent

To Paris, which hath 488,000 souls.

Rouen 66,000 Lyons 100,000 Toulouse 90,000 In all 744,000

If there be any error in these conjectures concerning these cities of France, we hope they will be mended by those whom we hear to be now at work upon that matter.

4. That the King of England's three cities, viz.

London 696,000 { Paris 488,000 Dublin 69,000 exceed { Amsterdam 187,000 Bristol 48,000 { Venice 134,000 In all 813,000 Being but 809,000

5. That of the four great emporiums, London, Amsterdam, Venice, and Rouen, London alone is near double to the other three, viz., above 7 to 4.

Amsterdam 187,000 } Venice 134,000 } 387,000 Rouen 66,000 } 2 774,000 London 696,000

6. That London, for aught appears, is the greatest and most considerable city of the world, but manifestly the greatest emporium.