A Study of Recent Earthquakes Part 15

The general character of the fault-scarp changes with the surface features. On flat ground, where the throw is small, it cuts up the soft earth into enormous clods, or makes a rounded ridge from one to two feet high, so that it resembles, more than anything else, the pathway of a gigantic mole (Fig. 46). When the throw is considerable--and in one place it reaches from 18 to 20 feet--the fault-scarp forms a terrace, which from a distance has the appearance of a railway embankment (Fig. 47). Or, again, where the rent traverses a mountain ridge or a spur of hills, "it caused extensive landslips, one side of it descending considerably in level, carrying the forest with it, but with the trees complicatedly interlocked or prostrate on the ground."

[Ill.u.s.tration: FIG. 48.--Displacement of Field Divisions by the Fault near Nishi-Katabira. (_Koto._)]

At its southern end, the fault was seen for the first time crossing a field near the village of Katabira. The field was broken into clods of earth, and swollen up to a height of 5-1/2 yards, while a great landslip had descended into it from an adjoining hill. A little farther to the north-west, the ground was sharply cut by the fault, the north-east side having slightly subsided and at the same time been shifted horizontally through a distance of 3-1/4 to 4 feet to the north-west Adjoining fields were formerly separated by straight mounds or ridges running north and south and east and west, and these mounds were cut through by the fault and displaced, as shown in Fig. 48. From this point the fault runs in a general north-westerly direction, the north-east side being always slightly lowered with respect to the other and shifted to the north-west. Near Seki it takes a more westerly direction, and continues so to a short distance east of Takatomi, where the north side is lowered by five feet, and moved about 1-1/4 feet to the west. At the north end of Takatomi, a village in which every house was levelled with the ground, the fault is double, and the continuous lowering towards the north has converted a once level field into sloping ground. At this point, the small river Toba, flowing south, is partially blocked by the fault-scarp, and an area of about three-quarters of a square mile, on which two villages stand, was converted into a deep swamp (Fig. 49), so that, as the earthquake occurred at the time of the rice-harvest, the farmers were obliged to cut the grain from boats. After pa.s.sing Takatomi, the fault again turns to the west-north-west, but, the throw being small, it resembles here the track of an enormous mole. At Umehara it crosses a garden between two persimmon trees, appearing on the hard face of the ground as a mere line; but the trees, which were before in an east-and-west line, now stand in one running north and south, without being in the least affected by the movement (Fig. 50). From here to Kimbara, where the fault enters the Neo valley, the north side is always depressed and shifted westwards by about 6-1/2 feet.

[Ill.u.s.tration: FIG. 49.--Map of Swamp formed by stoppage of River Toba by Fault-scarp. (_Koto._)]

[Ill.u.s.tration: FIG. 50.--Shifting of Trees by fault at Umehara.

(_Koto._)]

It was in the Neo valley that the supreme efforts of the earthquake were manifested. Landslips were so numerous that the greater part of the mountain slopes had descended into the valley, the whole appearance of which had changed. "Unfamiliar obstacles," remarks Professor Koto, "made themselves apparent, and small hills covered with forest had come into sight which had not been seen before." But the ground was not only lowered and shifted by the fault; it was permanently compressed, plots originally 48 feet in length afterwards measuring only 30 feet. In fact, "it appears," in the words of Professor Milne, "as if the whole Neo valley had become narrower."

A few miles after entering the Neo valley, the throw of the fault reaches its maximum at Midori. But instead of the relative depression of the east side, which prevails throughout the rest of the line, that side is here about 20 feet higher than the other. It is, however, shifted as usual towards the north, by about 13 feet; and this displacement is rendered especially evident by the abrupt break in the line of a new road to Gifu (Fig. 47). That the east side has really risen is clear, for, a little higher up, the river has changed from a shallow rapid stream 30 yards wide into a small lake of more than twice the width, and so deep that a boatman's pole could not reach the bottom. At Itasho, about a mile north of Midori, both sides are nearly on the same level, the fault appearing like a mole's track; and seven miles farther, at Nagoshima, the east side is relatively depressed by more than a yard, and at the same time shifted about 6-1/2 feet to the north.

[Ill.u.s.tration: FIG. 51.--Daily frequency of after-shocks at Gifu and Nagoya.]

At Nogo, the main Neo valley turns off at right angles to the east, and the fault continues its course up a side valley, the east side, with respect to the other, being continually depressed and shifted towards the north. It was traced by Professor Koto through Fujitani (Fig. 46), where there were many unmistakable evidences of the violence of the shock, as far as the eastern shoulder of Haku-san; and here, after following the fault for 40 miles, the lateness of the season compelled him to return. There can be no doubt, however, that it runs as far as Minomata; and it is probable, from the linear extension of the meizoseismal area, that it does not entirely die out before reaching the city of f.u.kui, 70 miles from its starting-point at Katabira.

MINOR SHOCKS.

For some hours after the earthquake, shocks were so frequent in the meizoseismal area that the ground in places hardly ever ceased from trembling. Without instrumental aid, detailed record was of course impossible; but fortunately the buried seismographs at Gifu and Nagoya were uninjured, and in about seven hours both were once more in working order. To the energy by which this result was accomplished, we owe our most valuable registers of the after-shocks of a great earthquake.

[Ill.u.s.tration: FIG. 52.--Monthly frequency of after-shocks at Gifu. (_Omori._)]

Until the end of 1893--that is, in little more than two years--the total number of shocks recorded at Gifu was 3,365, and at Nagoya 1,298. None of these approached the princ.i.p.al earthquake in severity.

Nevertheless, of the Gifu series, 10 were described as violent and 97 strong; while of the remainder, 1,808 were weak, 1,041 feeble, and 409 were sounds alone without any accompanying shock. The slight intensity of most of the shocks is also evident from the inequality in the numbers recorded at Gifu and Nagoya, from which it appears that nearly two-thirds were imperceptible more than about 25 miles from the chief origin of the shocks. Only 70 of the after-shocks during the first two years were registered at Osaka, and not more than 30 at Tokio.

_Distribution of After-shocks in Time._--The decline in frequency of the after-shocks was at first extremely rapid, the numbers recorded at Gifu during the six days after the earthquake being 303, 147, 116, 99, 92, and 81, and at Nagoya 185, 93, 79, 56, 30, and 31; in fact, half of the shocks up to the end of 1893 occurred by November 23rd at Gifu, and by November 6th at Nagoya. The daily numbers at these two places are represented in Fig. 51, in which the crosses correspond to the numbers at Gifu, and the dots to those at Nagoya; and the curves drawn through or near the marks represent the average daily number of shocks from October 29th to November 20th. It will be seen that these curves are hyperbolic in form, the change from very rapid to very gradual decline in frequency taking place from five to ten days after the great earthquake. Fig. 52 ill.u.s.trates the distribution in time of the after-shocks at Gifu to the end of 1893, the ordinates in these cases representing the number of shocks during successive months.[57]

A similar rapid and then gradual decline in frequency characterises the strong and weak shocks recorded at Gifu. Of the ten violent shocks, only one occurred after the beginning of January 1892; and of the 97 strong shocks, only three after April 1892. But at the commencement of the series, feeble shocks (_i.e._, shocks that could just be felt) and earth-sounds without any accompanying movement were comparatively rare, and did not become really prominent until two months had elapsed. Of the 308 after-shocks recorded in 1893, none could be described as strong, only 10 were weak, while 263 were feeble shocks and 35 merely earth-sounds.

The last two diagrams show at a glance that the decline in frequency of after-shocks is very far from being uniform. Some of the fluctuations are due to the occurrence of exceptionally strong shocks, each of which is followed by its own minor train of after-shocks.[58]

Others seem to be periodic, and possibly owe their origin to external causes unconnected with the earthquake.[59]

_Method of representing the Distribution of After-shocks in s.p.a.ce._--The maps in Figs. 54-57 show the distribution of the after-shocks in s.p.a.ce during four successive intervals of two months each. They are founded on Professor Milne's great catalogue of j.a.panese earthquakes, which give, among other data, the time of occurrence and the position of the epicentre for every shock until the end of 1892. For the latter purpose, the whole country is divided by north-south and east-west lines into numbered rectangles, each one-sixth of a degree in length and breadth; and the position of an epicentre is denoted by the number of the rectangle in which it occurs. The area included within the maps is bounded by the parallels 34 40' and 36 20' lat. N., and by the meridians 2 10' and 3 50'

long. W. of Tokio, so that ten rectangles adjoin each side of the map.

The number of epicentres lying within each rectangle having been counted, curves are then drawn through the centres of all rectangles containing the same number of epicentres, or through points which divide the line joining the centres of two rectangles in the proper proportion. Taking, for example, the curve marked 5, if the numbers in two consecutive rectangles are 3 and 7, the curve bisects the line joining their centres; if the numbers are 1 and 6, the line joining their centres is divided into five equal parts, and the curve pa.s.ses through the first point of division reckoned from the centre of the rectangle in which six epicentres are found. Thus the meaning of the curve marked, say, 5 may be stated as follows:--If any point in the curve be imagined as the centre of a rectangle whose sides are directed north-south and east-west, and are respectively one-sixth of a degree of lat.i.tude and longitude in length; then the number of epicentres within this rectangle is at the rate of 5 for the time considered.

_Preparation for the Great Earthquake._--At first sight, there appears to have been but little direct preparation for the great earthquake.

Except for a rather strong shock on October 25th, at 9.14 P.M., it occurred without the warning of any preliminary tremors. But a closer examination of the evidence shows, as we should indeed expect, that there was a distinct increase in activity for many months beforehand.

The region had become "seismically sensitive." Of the hundred rectangles included in the maps in Figs. 53-57, there are thirteen lying along the meizoseismal area of the earthquake of 1891, in which nearly all the after-shocks originated. During the five years 1885-89, 53 out of 125 earthquakes (or 42 per cent.) had their epicentres lying within the thirteen rectangles; or, in other words, the average frequency in one of the rectangles of the meizoseismal area was five times as great as in one of those outside it. In 1890 and 1891 (until October 27th), the percentage in the thirteen rectangles rose to 61, and the average frequency in one of them to ten times that of one of the exterior rectangles.

The curves in Fig. 53 ill.u.s.trate the distribution of epicentres during the latter interval. It will be seen that they follow roughly the course of the meizoseismal area southwards to the Sea of Ise, and that to the south-east they continue for several miles the short branch of the meizoseismal area which surrounds the southern end of the fault-scarp.

[Ill.u.s.tration: FIG. 53.--Distribution of preliminary Shocks in s.p.a.ce. (_Davison._)]

Thus, the preparation for the great earthquake is shown, first, by the increased frequency of earthquakes originating within its meizoseismal area; and, secondly, by the uniformity in the distribution of epicentres throughout the same region, the marked concentration of effort which characterises the after-shocks being hardly perceptible during the years 1890-91.

[Ill.u.s.tration: FIG. 54.--Distribution of After-shocks in s.p.a.ce (November-December 1891). (_Davison_).]

_Distribution of After-shocks in s.p.a.ce._--We have seen that the after-shocks were subject to a fluctuating decline in frequency, rapid at first, and more gradual afterwards. It is evident, from Figs.

54-57, that a similar law governs the area within which the after-shocks originated. During the first two months, epicentres occur over nearly the whole of the meizoseismal area, but afterwards they are confined to a smaller district, which slowly, though not continually, decreases in size.

[Ill.u.s.tration: FIG. 55.--Distribution of After-shocks in s.p.a.ce (January-February, 1892). (_Davison._)]

[Ill.u.s.tration: FIG. 56.--Distribution of After-shocks in s.p.a.ce (March-April). (_Davison._)]

The most important feature in the distribution of the epicentres is the central region of extraordinary activity; but there are also districts of minor and more short-lived activity near the three extremities of the meizoseismal band. The seat of chief seismic action shifts slightly from one part to another of the epicentral region, especially about the end of 1891, as will be seen by comparing the innermost curves of Figs. 54 and 55. Thus, with the decline in frequency of the after-shocks and the decrease in their sphere of action, there took place concurrently a gradual but oscillating withdrawal of that action to a more or less central region of the fault.

[Ill.u.s.tration: FIG. 57.--Distribution of After-shocks in s.p.a.ce (May-June, 1892). (_Davison._)]

_Sound Phenomena of After-shocks._--While comparatively few observers seem to have noticed any noise with the princ.i.p.al earthquake, many of the after-shocks were accompanied by sounds. Professor Omori describes them as belonging to two types. They were either rushing feeble noises like that of wind, or loud rumbling noises like those of thunder, the discharge of a gun, or the fall of a heavy body. In the Neo valley, sounds of the second type were most frequent and distinct, but they either occurred without any shock at all, or the attendant tremor was very feeble; while, on the other hand, severe sharp shocks were generally unaccompanied by distinctly audible sounds.

It is remarkable, also, that sounds were less frequently heard with the early than with the later after-shocks. In November 1891, the percentage of audible shocks was 17, and from December to the following April always lay between 10 and 12. In May the percentage suddenly rose to 39, and until the end of 1892 was always greater than 32, while in November 1892, it rose as high as 49. This, of course, agrees with Professor Omori's observation that sounds attended feeble shocks more often than strong ones.

The distribution of the audible after-shocks in s.p.a.ce is shown in Fig.

58. These curves are drawn in the same way as those in Figs. 53-57, but they represent the percentages, not the actual numbers, of shocks accompanied by sound. It will be noticed that all three groups of curves lie along the meizoseismal area, or the continuation of the south-east branch; while the axis of the princ.i.p.al group of curves lies to the west of the central regions in which most after-shocks originated.

[Ill.u.s.tration: FIG. 58.--Distribution of Audible After-shocks in s.p.a.ce (November 1891-December 1892). (_Davison_.)]

The explanation of these peculiarities is no doubt connected with the comparative inability of the j.a.panese people to perceive the deep sounds which in Europe are always heard with earthquake shocks. The sounds are rarely heard by them more than a few miles from the epicentre.[60] We may therefore conclude that slight after-shocks originated nearer the surface than strong ones, that the mean depth of the foci decreased with the lapse of time, and that the axes of the systems of curves in Fig. 58 mark out approximately the lines of the growing faults. The separation of the two westerly groups of curves appears to show that the main branch of the meizoseismal area is connected with a fault roughly parallel to that traced by Professor Koto, but of which no scarp (if it existed) could be readily distinguished among the superficial fissures produced by the great shock.

EFFECT OF THE EARTHQUAKE ON THE SEISMIC ACTIVITY OF THE ADJOINING DISTRICTS.

So great and sudden a displacement as occurred along the fault-scarp could hardly take place without affecting the stability of adjoining regions of the earth's crust, and we should naturally expect to find a distinct change in their seismic activity shortly after October 28th.

In Fig. 59 two such regions are shown, bounded by the straight dotted lines. The district in which the princ.i.p.al earthquake and its after-shocks originated is enclosed within the undulating dotted lines. The continuous lines inside all three districts are the curves corresponding to 10 and 5 epicentres for the years 1885-92. Not far from the axes of the outer groups of curves there are probably transverse faults, approximately parallel to the great fault-scarp and the main branch of the meizoseismal band, and distant from them about 45 and 55 miles respectively.

[Ill.u.s.tration: FIG. 59.--Map of Adjoining Regions in which Seismic Activity was affected by the Great Earthquake.

(_Davison._)]

In the district represented in the north-east corner of Fig. 59, 29 earthquakes originated between January 1st, 1885, and October 27th, 1891, and 30 between October 28th, 1891, and December 31st, 1892, 7 of the latter number occurring in November 1891. In the south-west district, the corresponding figures before and after the earthquake are 20 and 36, 8 of the latter occurring in November 1891. Thus, in the north-east district, for every shock in the interval before the earthquake there were six in an equal time afterwards, and at the rate of 10 during November 1891; and in the south-west district, for every shock before the earthquake there were 10 afterwards, and at the rate of 16 during November 1891.

Now, it is unlikely that the gradual increase of stress should be so nearly proportioned everywhere to the prevailing conditions of resistance as to give rise to a marked and practically simultaneous change in seismic activity over a large area; whereas the paroxysmal occurrence of a strong earthquake might alter the surrounding conditions with comparative rapidity, and so induce a state of seismic excitement in the neighbourhood. It therefore seems very probable that the increased activity in the two districts here described was a direct consequence of the occurrence of the great earthquake.

ORIGIN OF THE EARTHQUAKE.

The preponderance of preliminary earthquakes within the meizoseismal area and the outlining of the fault-system by the frequency curves of 1890-91 (Fig. 53) point to the previous existence of the originating fault or faults, and to the earthquake being due, not to the formation of a new fracture, as has been suggested, but to the growth of an old fault.

The last severe earthquake in the Mino-Owari plain occurred in 1859, so that for more than thirty years there had been but little relief to the gradually increasing stresses. Now, the distribution of stress must have been far from uniform throughout the fault-system, and also the resistance to displacement far from proportional to the stresses at different places. At certain points, therefore, the effective stress would be greater than elsewhere, and it would be at these points that fault-slips would first occur. Such slips tend to remove the inequalities in effective stress. Thus, the function of the slight shocks of 1890 and 1891 was, briefly, to equalise the effective stress over the whole fault-system, and so to clear the way for one or more great slips throughout its entire length.

As to which side of the fault moved during the great displacement, or whether both sides moved at once, we have no direct evidence but as regards the neighbourhood of Midori, and there the conditions were exceptional. Professor Koto thinks that it was probably the rock on the north-east side that was generally depressed and always shifted to the north-west But the disturbance in reality seems to have been more complicated. That this was the case, that displacement occurred along more than one fault, is probable from the branching of the meizoseismal area, the isolation of the audibility curves of the after-shocks (Fig. 58), and the sudden increase in seismic activity both to the north-east and south-west of the epicentre. The detached portion of the meizoseismal area near Lake Biwa may also point to a separate focus. The whole region, indeed, was evidently subjected to intense stresses, and the depression on the north-east side of the fault-scarp can hardly fail to have been accompanied by other movements, especially along a fault running near the western margin of the main branch of the meizoseismal area.

The later stages of the movements are somewhat clearer. From a study of the after-shocks, we learn that the disturbed ma.s.ses began at once to settle back towards the position of equilibrium. At first the slips were numerous and took place over the whole fault-system, but chiefly at a considerable depth, where no doubt the initial displacement was greatest. After a few months, stability was nearly restored along the extremities of the faults; slips were confined almost entirely to the central regions, while a much larger proportion of them took place within the superficial portions of the faults.

The official records bring down the history to the end of 1893. Since that time more than one strong shock has been felt in the Mino-Owari plain; but the stage of recovery from the disturbances of 1891 is probably near its end, and we seem rather to be entering on a period in which the forces are once more silently gathering that sooner or later will result in another great catastrophe.